Comments for The Big Picture http://www.ritholtz.com/blog Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Tue, 14 Feb 2012 12:00:26 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.5 Comment on Surprise! Economists Are Not Good At Forecasting by Finster http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/02/surprise-economists-are-not-good-at-forecasting/comment-page-1/#comment-609766 Finster Tue, 14 Feb 2012 12:00:26 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=75919#comment-609766 The entire "output gap model" is challenged by the enormity of the real estate bubble. In Austrian economist's terms I would say "the economy of the real estate bubble collapsed and that very economy shouldn't exist." The bigger the divergence from a sustainable economy was, the less underused, but viable economy is present as output gap. Unviable economy is not an output gap. It's creative destruction and has to be reinvented and redeployed in a much more lengthy and costly manner. It all comes down to neo classic economic theory not having a complete theory of capital (and its obsoletion). The entire “output gap model” is challenged by the enormity of the real estate bubble. In Austrian economist’s terms I would say “the economy of the real estate bubble collapsed and that very economy shouldn’t exist.” The bigger the divergence from a sustainable economy was, the less underused, but viable economy is present as output gap.

Unviable economy is not an output gap. It’s creative destruction and has to be reinvented and redeployed in a much more lengthy and costly manner. It all comes down to neo classic economic theory not having a complete theory of capital (and its obsoletion).

]]> Comment on Surprise! Economists Are Not Good At Forecasting by mathman http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/02/surprise-economists-are-not-good-at-forecasting/comment-page-1/#comment-609765 mathman Tue, 14 Feb 2012 11:47:34 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=75919#comment-609765 along the same lines: http://questioneverything.typepad.com/question_everything/2012/02/when-will-truth-dawn-on-economists.html#comments When will truth dawn on economists? along the same lines:

http://questioneverything.typepad.com/question_everything/2012/02/when-will-truth-dawn-on-economists.html#comments

When will truth dawn on economists?

]]> Comment on 10 Monday PM Reads by mathman http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/02/10-monday-pm-reads-10/comment-page-1/#comment-609764 mathman Tue, 14 Feb 2012 11:46:08 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=75905#comment-609764 http://d99924259323418381.typepad.com/blog/2012/02/a-small-taste-of-whats-coming.html "A small taste of what's coming If you thought nothing could possibly surprise you about the plight of the world in 2012, try this for size. I found the following snippet on Russia Today's website (http://rt.com/news/line/2012-02-10/#id26309): Greek police want EU and IMF officials behind bars ­Greece’s largest police union has threatened to issue a symbolic warrant for the arrest of key EU and IMF officials. The union accuses the two international organizations, which have imposed tough measures as a condition for financial aid, of "blackmail and covertly abolishing or eroding democracy and national sovereignty." On the verge of bankruptcy, Greece has had to implement a series of radical austerity measures, the latest of which is a 22 per cent cut in the minimum wage. The warrant is unlikely to have legal power, but the police say it is a show of solidarity with anti-European protesters, whom the police have often clashed with during frequent mass demonstrations in Athens. --- Seeing as the US and UK police have been operating more as a private protection force for the super-rich, as opposed to protecting the rights of all citizens, this may foretell the future for countries beyond Greece. I'm just waiting for our dear governments to start cutting police pay as well as their jobs. Then we'll see what happens." http://d99924259323418381.typepad.com/blog/2012/02/a-small-taste-of-whats-coming.html

“A small taste of what’s coming
If you thought nothing could possibly surprise you about the plight of the world in 2012, try this for size. I found the following snippet on Russia Today’s website (http://rt.com/news/line/2012-02-10/#id26309):

Greek police want EU and IMF officials behind bars
­Greece’s largest police union has threatened to issue a symbolic warrant for the arrest of key EU and IMF officials. The union accuses the two international organizations, which have imposed tough measures as a condition for financial aid, of “blackmail and covertly abolishing or eroding democracy and national sovereignty.” On the verge of bankruptcy, Greece has had to implement a series of radical austerity measures, the latest of which is a 22 per cent cut in the minimum wage. The warrant is unlikely to have legal power, but the police say it is a show of solidarity with anti-European protesters, whom the police have often clashed with during frequent mass demonstrations in Athens.

—

Seeing as the US and UK police have been operating more as a private protection force for the super-rich, as opposed to protecting the rights of all citizens, this may foretell the future for countries beyond Greece.

I’m just waiting for our dear governments to start cutting police pay as well as their jobs. Then we’ll see what happens.”

]]> Comment on Who Killed the Washington Post? by mlnberger http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/02/who-killed-the-washington-post/comment-page-1/#comment-609760 mlnberger Tue, 14 Feb 2012 10:33:19 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=75903#comment-609760 of course, the bottom line drives these matters, but as a former reader of the Post, i must say the shift the newspaper's editors took the right -- where they tried to ride the Reagan Revolution roughshod over Clinton and his impeachment right through the 2000 election and onto Iraq, either ignoring or celebrating the rising levels of inequality -- drove this reader off their rolls. and i think you can multiply this example by tens of thousands of former readers. one of the great myths perpetuated by today's conventional wisdom is that the Post is a "liberal" newspaper, whereas the reality is that their cheerleading for a neo-conservative fantasy-reality, the same agenda as the Murdoch media, was the boost necessary for the explosion of blogs and the internet as a source of news. of course, the bottom line drives these matters, but as a former reader of the Post, i must say the shift the newspaper’s editors took the right — where they tried to ride the Reagan Revolution roughshod over Clinton and his impeachment right through the 2000 election and onto Iraq, either ignoring or celebrating the rising levels of inequality — drove this reader off their rolls. and i think you can multiply this example by tens of thousands of former readers.

one of the great myths perpetuated by today’s conventional wisdom is that the Post is a “liberal” newspaper, whereas the reality is that their cheerleading for a neo-conservative fantasy-reality, the same agenda as the Murdoch media, was the boost necessary for the explosion of blogs and the internet as a source of news.

]]> Comment on My Application: Head of Public Relations, Goldman Sachs by Links 2/14/12 « naked capitalism http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/02/my-application-for-head-of-public-relations-goldman-sachs/comment-page-1/#comment-609756 Links 2/14/12 « naked capitalism Tue, 14 Feb 2012 07:55:35 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=75756#comment-609756 [...] My Application: Head of Public Relations, Goldman Sachs Barry Ritholtz (hat tip reader Scott). I am waiting to hear how his job interviews goes. [...] [...] My Application: Head of Public Relations, Goldman Sachs Barry Ritholtz (hat tip reader Scott). I am waiting to hear how his job interviews goes. [...]

]]> Comment on Updating Stock Market Rallies Since 1900 by agden80 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/02/updating-stock-market-rallies-since-1900/comment-page-1/#comment-609754 agden80 Tue, 14 Feb 2012 07:16:03 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=75898#comment-609754 Obviously, the chart from COTD made sense and was not data rigging. As far as I understand it, the charts shows all instances when the market rallied with interim correction of no more than 15%. That's why they chose Oct 11 as the starting date for the current rally. You put in there the rally that started in Mar09. But it is now you point, BR, that is illegitimate there because it is incomparable to other points. Note that the rally from Mar09 includes a correction of more than 15% whereas all other points on the chart do not include corrections of such magnitude. In order to construct a legitimate chart for the rally from Mar09, you need to make it controlled for 20% or 30% corrections, as you said Barry. This chart simply makes no sense now. Obviously, the chart from COTD made sense and was not data rigging. As far as I understand it, the charts shows all instances when the market rallied with interim correction of no more than 15%. That’s why they chose Oct 11 as the starting date for the current rally. You put in there the rally that started in Mar09. But it is now you point, BR, that is illegitimate there because it is incomparable to other points. Note that the rally from Mar09 includes a correction of more than 15% whereas all other points on the chart do not include corrections of such magnitude. In order to construct a legitimate chart for the rally from Mar09, you need to make it controlled for 20% or 30% corrections, as you said Barry. This chart simply makes no sense now.

]]> Comment on My Application: Head of Public Relations, Goldman Sachs by Giovanni http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/02/my-application-for-head-of-public-relations-goldman-sachs/comment-page-1/#comment-609752 Giovanni Tue, 14 Feb 2012 05:08:18 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=75756#comment-609752 Careful what you wish for BR! Careful what you wish for BR!

]]> Comment on 10 Monday PM Reads by howardoark http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/02/10-monday-pm-reads-10/comment-page-1/#comment-609751 howardoark Tue, 14 Feb 2012 04:57:04 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=75905#comment-609751 I haven't looked forward to a movie this much since the first Lord of the Rings http://www.ironsky.net/ It seems that the Nazi's invented anti-gravity toward the beginning of 1945, too late to win the war, but early enough to get to the moon. They've been biding their time ever since and now it's payback time. The only thing standing in their way is President Palin and a coalition of the willing. It was apparently made in Finland (in English) for less than $10 million. The art direction looks fantastic. I haven’t looked forward to a movie this much since the first Lord of the Rings

http://www.ironsky.net/

It seems that the Nazi’s invented anti-gravity toward the beginning of 1945, too late to win the war, but early enough to get to the moon. They’ve been biding their time ever since and now it’s payback time. The only thing standing in their way is President Palin and a coalition of the willing.

It was apparently made in Finland (in English) for less than $10 million. The art direction looks fantastic.

]]> Comment on Precious metal: India’s love affair with gold by theexpertisin http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/02/precious-metal-indias-love-affair-with-gold/comment-page-1/#comment-609750 theexpertisin Tue, 14 Feb 2012 04:42:10 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=75887#comment-609750 gman Sorry you missed the point. gman

Sorry you missed the point.

]]> Comment on Who Killed the Washington Post? by maynardGkeynes http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/02/who-killed-the-washington-post/comment-page-1/#comment-609749 maynardGkeynes Tue, 14 Feb 2012 04:22:22 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=75903#comment-609749 With Katharine Weymouth, you get the impression is that she is the type of person who would never even read a newspaper if she didn't own one. You can't say that about the Sulzbergers, and it makes all the difference in the world. When things got tough at the Post, they dealt with it by cutting sections and reporters to save money, like it didn't make any difference who was reporting, writing and editing, which made it a worse product. The Times deepened their coverage of business, culture, and political reporting, and created a better product. If it weren't for the Giant Food ads and the traffic coverage, I would have dropped my subscription to the Post years ago, because the Times is so much the better newspaper. WSJ has also made deep inroads into the Post's higher income readers in NW Washington and the wealthier suburbs. Sad to say, but the Post is a newspaper in serious, and probably irreversible decline, and the wounds are almost entirely self-inflicted. With Katharine Weymouth, you get the impression is that she is the type of person who would never even read a newspaper if she didn’t own one. You can’t say that about the Sulzbergers, and it makes all the difference in the world. When things got tough at the Post, they dealt with it by cutting sections and reporters to save money, like it didn’t make any difference who was reporting, writing and editing, which made it a worse product. The Times deepened their coverage of business, culture, and political reporting, and created a better product. If it weren’t for the Giant Food ads and the traffic coverage, I would have dropped my subscription to the Post years ago, because the Times is so much the better newspaper. WSJ has also made deep inroads into the Post’s higher income readers in NW Washington and the wealthier suburbs. Sad to say, but the Post is a newspaper in serious, and probably irreversible decline, and the wounds are almost entirely self-inflicted.

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