The Big Picture - Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Technology, and Digital Media

Since the readership of this blog has risen to beyond a small circle of friends — we are now well over ~100 million page views, and regularly average ~two to two and a half million monthly page views — I thought it appropriate to list a full set of disclosures.

These include what you should expect me, your humble blogger, but also what I expect from you, the reader. Consider these the guidelines governing appropriate behavior for all involved at The Big Picture.

The following covers the full site, my own investments, and any financial arrangements relevant to this blog:
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1. Privacy Policy:

We are obsessive about our privacy, and we assume you are also. I never share or resell our readers names or email addresses, PERIOD. Anyone who does needs to die slowly and painfully.

No more than 2 times a year, we may send you an update about your subscription. Given my general distaste for all matters administrative, I would not hold my breath waiting for these announcements. However, if you can hold your breath for that long a period of time, you may wish to explore a career as a pearl diver.

I can envision an emergency email, advising you to seek shelter, buy bottled water, get to higher ground, or obtain radiation detection equipment. Again, our laziness makes this a low probability event. Not the flooding or nuclear accident — just our warning email about it.

Do not sign me up for any subscriptions I did not request. Unsolicited subscriptions, and foolish unrelated PR emails will be dealt with very very harshly. I am dead fucking serious about this.

2. Content:

I try my best to give you a unique combination of original content, as well as referencing the best of what I find elsewhere — MSM, Wall Street, Video, other blogs.

Typically, throughout the day, the posting pattern looks like this:

1) A long, original piece in the early morning;

2) A set of reads (or a look at a specific MSM article) around market opens;

3) An intriguing chart midday;

4) I often post an interesting digital site in the afternoon;

5) Sometimes, I will pull together some afternoon reading (links);

6) Something amusing towards the end of the day

Of course, this is subject to my changing whims.

I give you my unvarnished thoughts, warts and all. I like the freedom of expressing myself without self consciousness, or self-editing. If you find any of the items, humor or commentary politically incorrect, well, then, that’s too bad. You probably need to get a sense of humor. An alternative is to go away; there are lots of other more politically correct blogs. (BUH-bye!)

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2b. Content:

Several additional pieces of commentary, links, excerpts show up from elsewhere during the day — charts, news, other resources. The goal is to provide a stream of relevant information — leavened with my perspectives.

The Think Tank provides one or two commentaries per day from the best Wall Street analysts I know. I have a great disdain for most big firm Wall Street hacks, but there are a small group of pros I have tremendous respect for. Many of them — Bond managers, economists, strategists, hedgies — end up posting in the Think Tank. I sometime focus on their writings I disagree with, but want to challenge my views with well argued alternatives.

My coverage of specific topics is governed primarily by a) my own interest in the subject matter, and whatever expertise in I might posses on a given subject. Questions such as “Why don’t you cover X or Y?” are typically answered thusly: “I have no interest or expertise in X or Y. Why don’t you cover it?” Unlike all too many others, I’d prefer to opine about topics where I have something worthwhile to contribute to the discussion, rather than merely flapping my gums . . .

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3. Market Positions:

If I am discussing a specific company and/or its stock, and I have a personal — or a firm/client position — in that stock, I will disclose that position at the end of the post, near the “sources” section. I err on the side of “more disclosure is better.”

I may or may not make such a disclosure if I am only discussing a given sector. (i.e., in a discussion of Oil/Energy, I may or may not disclose positions my ConocoPhillips or BP).

I try not to discuss small cap positions often, as they are too easily pushed around. I especially don’t like to  discuss small cap shorts. Since I prefer not to disclose short positions, but do want to maintain a full disclosure policy, I simply avoid posting on them. Readers should not assume that I have any position, long or short, merely because a stock is mentioned or ignored.

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4. Edits:

Once a post “sets,” there are no further edits or changes. I give myself an ~hour after posting to clean up grammar, spelling, etc. If a news event comes out that is the subject of the post, any further changes are frowned upon. In the event I come across something that simply MUST be changed due to an errant suppository accident, I will strike it out and leave it visible as the nearby text shows.

UPDATE: January 27, 2007 8:31am
I will occasionally add Updates, and they are clearly dated and time stamped, as above.

The gist of a post stays up forever.

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5A. Posting Comments:

A lot of thought — and work — goes into what gets posted here; If you want to comment, I suggest you engage in the same process (“thinking” and “working”).

I take the comments and feedback seriously, and attempt to read all that goes up here (‘though that is becoming increasingly difficult). I read all email, but make no promises about responding.

Email addresses on comments are not published, but I do see them. Comments with legit email addresses get greater priority than disposable email addresses (ie., Hotmail, Mailinator, etc.). Word Press has eliminated the cowardly “anons” — so its one less thing to ignore. If I am unable to respond to you privately due to a bogus email address don’t be surprised if you get a snarky edit in your posted comment.

All “Off Topic” posts and thread hijacks get deleted with extreme prejudice.

When posting your first ever Big Picture comment, I suggest you make it informative, interesting, on topic, and of of moderate length — a paragraph or two. Lazy one sentence or one word comments typically get deleted. (Posting First! gets you banned for life). Rambling 1000 word comments also get edited or deleted (GYOFB!) or disemvoweled.

The first comment often sets the tone for the rest of the discussion; Please post intelligently.

I post comments in my own name. Anytime I comment in someone else’s posts, I will mark it as such:

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BR: like this.

On occasion I will post someone else’s email (or telephone call) as a comment in their name or initials — because they can’t. My circle of colleagues/friends includes many people who work in firms with nasty compliance policies — due to their employers, they risk their jobs by posting comments. I will, in my own judgment, do so on their behalf when appropriate.

Please do not cut and paste entire copyrighted works of others into comments. Title, a URL, a few paras are plenty (if you are the author of a Bloomberg, NYT, WSJ, Barron’s, etc. column, then feel free).

Once posted, I do not delete comments. On rare occasions have I deleted reader comments after the fact at their request (less than 3 times — and only to save someone’s job).  If you post something that, several years from now turns out to be embarrassing, or revealing of yourself as an idiot, well, that’s just too God-damned bad. Think twice before ranting like a jackass.

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5B: Moderated Comments: Posting comments is a privilege, not a right. That is why the default setting for comments is moderated.

My goal regarding comments is not to establish an open forum where any jackass can post any piece of false, misleading or biased silliness without disclosing their position or interest — that’s what Yah oo message boards are for.

Demonstrate you are intelligent, civil, respect facts and are diligent about pursuing the truth and you eventually earn non-moderated status. The alternative; GYOFB.

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5C: Trolls and Asshats:

This may be a free country, but The Big Picture is my personal fiefdom. I rule over all as benevolent dictator/philospher king.

I will ban anyone whom I choose from posting comments — usually, for a damned good reason, but on rare occasions, for the exact same reason God created the platypus: because I feel like it.

This is far less random than it sounds. After 21,284 Posts and 266,427 comments, you get a pretty good feel for asshattery and instinct for douchebaggery. Neither is tolerated.

I encourage a broad range of perspectives, philosophies, sexual orientations. Dissent is good. I want to see a debate of views, a battle in the market place of ideas. (That Thomas Jefferson guy was onto something). You can post on nearly anything, so long as it is at least tangentially related to the topic at hand.

I reserve the right to edit any comment for length; If you annoy me enough, I will edit it to make you look a fool. On occasion, I will “unpublish” a comment if I feel it is too impolite, harsh, ad hominem, inappropriate. Off-topic posts are mercilessly slaughtered, and will be  unpublished en masse. Do not publish 20 comments out of blog post’s 60 total.  (It takes ~3 seconds to un-publish em all). Do not snipe, or flamebait, or engage in a private irrelevant debate. If you find yourself publishing way too many comments, consider this: This humble blog is my forum for expressing my ideas. Perhaps it might be best if you were to get your own damned blog.

The fastest way to lose posting privileges is to misrepresent your host’s complex and nuanced views in some inane bumper sticker comment. Doing so gets them deleted and your own ass tossed out.

Other fast tracks to getting banned:

- Knowingly posting false or malicious material;
- multiple postings under different names;
- generally engaging in troll-like behavior;
- misquoting your host/overlord;
- being impolite in the extreme;
- using fake/mislabelled URLs;
- ad hominem attacks;
- being an asshole.

Right now, someone is reading this and saying to themselves “What does he mean, being an asshole?” If you wondered that to yourself, well the odds strongly favor that you yourself have sphincter-like qualities. Thus, you should consider it likely that you will be banned as a rectoid from posting comments sometime in the near future.

If you disagree with any of these policies, or feel compelled to complain to the management, then by all means send an email here.

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5D: Assignments: There are few things that I find more annoying than disingenuous rhetoric. “Why are you ignoring X? You must post on this NOW.” This alerts me to the fact you have a very small willie, and for reasons unrelated to that affliction, should be ignored.

I do not accept homework assignments. They will be deleted. How about (you lazy bastard) you actually do some homework yourself? Then, you can post a clever observation and URL. Perhaps you will stimulate a conversation.

Of course, you could always start write your own blog;  (Warning: This is actually hard work).

Worse still are the emails asking for my opinion on this, or would you comment on that. In 94.7% of the cases, I have already covered the subject extensively (if only the emailer bothered to use our Google search tool). My apologies to the remaining 5.3%, but that’s how it goes: The tyranny of the ignorant majority oppressing the minority.

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5E. URLs in Comments: I encourage people to link back to other sources and sites in comments.  Feel free to put your own blog/site in the URL space when entering comments. However, link whoring is frowned upon in the body of comments.

If you are merely posting comments in order to enhance your Google score, I may leave the comment — but delete your URL above. Want some of my Google Juice? Play by my rules.

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5F. Trackbacks: I encourage Trackbacks from non-commercial sites discussing the issues we chew over here. However, since trackbacks and comments can also be a way to raise your Google score, commercial trackbacks will be invoiced as advertising. See #13 for more details.

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6. Sources:

I am fastidious in sourcing all materials. Whether MSM or a blog, I link in the body of the post and source at the end of every post. If I excerpt a sentence or two, I usually “quote and italicize” to show its someone else’s writing.

I will indent and often present a different color for quoted text of longer lengths, beyond a sentence or two.

I often use graphics, photos and charts, and I try to disclose not only the media source but the actual photographer where possible.

Despite my best attempts, I will occasionally miss a source. Feel free to email me at thebigpicture-at-optonline-dot-net, with MISSED SOURCE in the subject line.

Important Note: If you email me an item that is not of your authorship, be sure to include the original source — otherwise, it appears that you are the author and are usurping credit.

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7. Blog Roll:  Every link in the blogroll is a site I visit regularly. Given that it now has 100+ links (capacity!), I get to some much more often than others. But if its there, I read it. All I am trying to do is honestly represent what I filter thru.

Sorry, but because of the above, I do not “exchange” links or or swap blogrolls, and assume that those who do are dishonest assclowns. I delete the email, reference this comment, and mark your address as spam.  So, don’t even ask.

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8. Media Appearances:

All media appearances (tv, print, radio) are unpaid. I show up, say what I believe, and go home. There are no fees, no scripts, no banking favors. I always disclose positions/conflicts to the producer/editors in advance.

If time permits, I spit out my personal/client positions on air; Same goes for print.

I try to post a heads up on TV appearances in advance when I can, but since they tend to be last minute affairs, no promises.

Unlike the various Media hits, Speaking Appearances are well paid. More info about Speaking gigs can be found here.

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9. Board of Directors:

Burst.com: I have served on the Board of Burst.com (BRST) since February 2002. Burst is a public company which developed a patent portfolio over the past 19 years related to moving/streaming audio and video around a network, i.e., such as a LAN or the Internet.

When discussing any company that may present a conflict (i.e., license or litigation) with Burst, I will make that disclosure when relevant.

There are several other private firms I am involved with; our disclosures are prominent when discussing these.

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10A.  Investment philosophy:

If you are an individual managing your own portfolio, as a general rule, I favor dollar cost indexing on a monthly basis. For most people of moderate means, this is the lowest risk, highest return approach. No stock selection, no market timing, nothing exotic. (See this post for more details)

The hardest part about dollar cost averaging is that when you should be doing it the most, every instinct in your body will be telling you not to. When it comes to the capital markets, your instincts are invariably wrong. For more on this, go read You Just Ain’t Built For It.

For those (both professionals and civilians) who want to try to beat the market, well, there are many ways to attempt that. We explore that on occasion round here.

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10B.  Investment advice:

We do not offer investment advice on this site. That’s here not only because the lawyers insisted, but because its true.

Consider: I have no idea what your financial goals may be. I am unfamiliar with what your risk tolerances are. I don’t know your personal income, age, savings, financial circumstances, dependents, net worth, what tax bracket you are in. Hell, I do not even what country you live in. There are some people who would find these things quite relevant.

This site is a great place to come if you want to learn about some of the market/economic issues of the day, and see them discussed with a somewhat contrarian bend. I have a tendency to push back against the mainstream thought processes. I like to explore ideas I find interesting and relevant.

But its a blog, for crying out loud. Professionally, I write research market and economic issues, and manage money for a living. You get what you pay for — and this is free.

My all-time favorite comment (for two reasons) is this: “I bought/sold/stayed out of the market because of something I read here.”

The first reason I love that comment is that it makes me wonder how someone as dumb as you actually accrued enough money to buy a stock. Further, it reveals you as a 1) moron; or b) troll. (IP addresses prove this to me).

The second reason is that if your investment philosophy is dependent upon what you read in the media or even worse, on a blog, well then you definitely need to go back and rethink your investing philosophy. Pronto. Or, you may simply be an idiot (a high probability bet).

Regardless, you need a wake up call. Let me give you a head start on that process: Go read “Lose the News.” And try to be less of a money-losing putz in the future.

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11. Amazon.com:

I occasionally make recommendations for products that I like or use. Many of these have Amazon links.

This generates boatloads of usable data, and some minor revenue from Amazon. Purchases create an associate fee (minimum = 4%, average = ~7%) that averages out to a few shekels a month. More important than the revenue (less than 1% of my income) is the data it generates. In late 207, we could tellr etail sales were slowing due to the sales drop; In early 2009, we could tell they were recovering. Each month, we also create a list of books purchased by TBP readers. This is possible due to the data each embedded Amazon link creates.

Note that when possible, I also link to an artist’s official site, their Facebook/MySpace page, a YouTube video, or an IMDB entry.

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12. Freebies, product placement, payola:

I do not accept any “blog product placements” nor am I willing to accept blog payola. However, all products manufactured by Ferrari S.p.A. are exempt from this.

As to “freebies,” there is already too long a queue of books patiently awaiting my attention. If you insist, I will accept a book from an author or a publisher or PR marketing firm, with the following caveats — if you send your book to me:

- I may or may not read it;
- If I read it, I may or may not like it;
- If I like it, I may or may not review it;
- Regardless, I won’t sell any of these books on eBay, Amazon, etc. – but I might give it away to a worthy reader.

If you can live with those terms — and your book is relevant to what we discuss here — then you may send it to me.

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13. Advertising:

We do not sell key words, blog links, placement of any not readily recognizable commercial advertising.

We happily accept advertising: We charge $10,000 per commercial Trackback or Comment linking back to your site or product or service.  Eg., 3 trackbacks = $30,000.

By placing any commercial advertisement on this site, you agree to these terms and conditions: That you will pay the aforementioned fee promptly, that you agree to be governed by the laws of New York State and where appropriate, New York City, that you agree to jurisdiction in the great State of New York. You further agree that you are jointly and severably responsible for what any 3rd party does on your behalf, including but not limited to PR or Advertising or Marketing firms.

We will bill you promptly. Failure to pay will force the balance to be put into collections, where you will also be responsible for costs and legal expenses. You agree to jurisdiction in any small claims court of my choosing, or in the alternative, any court in New York State of my choosing.

Non-Trackback or Comment advertising is available at a negotiated rate.

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14. Confidentiality:    Any information we obtain from legitimate commentors is strictly confidential. This includes email addresses, IP address and actual names. They will not be revealed unless we receive a valid subpoena from a legitimate law enforcement agency or court of law. Spammers, Trolls and Asshats receive no such guarantee . . .

15. Legal Stuff

BARRY RITHOLTZ IS AN REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR AT FUSION ANALYTICS INVESTMENT PARTNERS LLC, AN SEC REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR.  THE OPINIONS EXPRESSED IN THIS BLOG ARE THE OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR AND READERS SHOULD NOT ASSUME THEY REFLECT THE OPINIONS OR RECOMMENDATIONS OF FUSION ANALYTICS INVESTMENT PARTNERS LLC OR ITS AFFILIATES.   ANY INFORMATION PRESENTED HEREIN IS FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND IS NOT A SOLICITATION TO BUY OR SELL SECURITIES.  PLEASE CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR AS IT PERTAINS TO INVESTMENT ADVICE.

Fusion Analytics Software Development Partners, LLC (“FUSIONIQ”) is not registered as an investment adviser with the SEC or any state securities agency. Rather, FUSIONIQ relies upon the “publisher’s exclusion” from the definition of “investment adviser” as provided under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. The site content and services offered thereon are bona fide publications of general and regular circulation offering impersonalized investment-related information to users and/or prospective users (e.g., not tailored to the specific investment needs of current and/or prospective users). To the extent any of the content published as part of the site or services offered thereon may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.

Last Updated:  February 12, 2012