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<channel>
	<title>The Big Picture</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog</link>
	<description>Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Wed, 17 Mar 2010 21:15:04 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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			<item>
		<title>Hey Bezos! Fix Your eejit pro-kindle anti-author Book Reviewers!</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/hey-bezos-fix-your-eejit-pro-kindle-anti-author-book-reviewers/</link>
		<comments>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/hey-bezos-fix-your-eejit-pro-kindle-anti-author-book-reviewers/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Mar 2010 21:15:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Barry Ritholtz</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Web/Tech]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=54562</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[As mentioned Monday, I found The Big Short discussion on 60 Minutes quite interesting. I went over to Amazon to check out the book &#8212; and was stunned at the very low review ratings for a book that had yet to be released.
Att he time, there were but 7 reviews. I clicked thru a few [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As mentioned <a href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/michael-lewis-on-60-minutes/" target="_blank">Monday</a>, I found <em><a href="http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0393072231/thebigpictu09-20" target="_blank">The Big Short</a> </em>discussion on 60 Minutes quite interesting. I went over to Amazon to check out the book &#8212; and was stunned at the very low review ratings for a book that had <em>yet to be released</em>.</p>
<p>Att he time, there were but 7 reviews. I clicked thru a few a One Star ratings, and saw some jackass had written <a href="http://www.amazon.com/review/R10RWDBZZUDMWR/ref=cm_cr_rdp_perm" target="_blank">the following</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>&#8220;Watched the interview on 60 minutes last night could not wait to order the book this morning on my kindle. Your loss.&#8221;</p></blockquote>
<p>My <a href="http://www.amazon.com/review/R10RWDBZZUDMWR/ref=cm_cr_rev_detmd_pl?ie=UTF8&amp;cdMsgNo=1&amp;cdPage=1&amp;store=books&amp;cdSort=oldest&amp;cdMsgID=Mx3J451I7X97MT6#Mx3J451I7X97MT6" target="_blank">response</a> to the review:</p>
<blockquote><p>&#8220;The book isn&#8217;t even out yet &#8212; and because the publisher has yet to release the kindle edition, you give the book a 1 star rating? An author spends 2 years researching and writing a book. Its important enough of a subject that 60 Minutes does a full piece on it. What sort of creep dismisses 2 years of someone&#8217;s work because their infantile demands could not be satisfied THIS SECOND?</p></blockquote>
<p>There are now 77 reviews, and 41 are one star reviews for kindle related  issues. Most of the 1 star reviewers are brain damaged eejits who wont understand this, but Amazon sure as hell should:</p>
<p>Authors do not control when the Kindle version comes out any more than they do when the paperback is released. Publishers typically release a kindle version sometime AFTER the hardcover. My own book, <em>Bailout Nation</em>, was released May 26, 2009, and the kindle edition came out around   September 2009, and the paperback is June 28, 2010.</p>
<p>As an author, you have precisely ZERO control over these dates.</p>
<p>Considering the 1 star ratings/complaints about the Kindle edition were posted BEFORE THE BOOK was even released, they are absurd. Amazon needs to step up and delete these non-reviews of books. At the very least, they should not count in the book&#8217;s star ratings.</p>
<p>These pro-kindle, anti-author reviews are completely unfair to the writer. The review is supposed to be about the book, not the publishers format released schedule.</p>
<p>If Amazon wants to be a fair vendor of books, they need to delete these idiotic, pro-kindle, fan boy reviews.</p>
<p>Hey Jeff Bezos !  Please show me my trust in Amazon is not misplaced!</p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/hey-bezos-fix-your-eejit-pro-kindle-anti-author-book-reviewers/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>What Is With All The TrackBack Spam ?</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/what-is-with-all-the-trackback-spam/</link>
		<comments>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/what-is-with-all-the-trackback-spam/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Mar 2010 20:00:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Barry Ritholtz</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Weblogs]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=54039</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Anyone else noticing an excessive amount of TrackBack Spam? It seems lots of gullible folks are buying into those Internet Get Rich Quick infomercials.
The SEEO folks have convinced them if they link to a lot of bloggers,and then get trackbacks, it will raise their Google Rank.
Not on my watch. That crap just pollutes the comment [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Anyone else noticing an excessive amount of TrackBack Spam? It seems lots of gullible folks are buying into those Internet Get Rich Quick infomercials.</p>
<p>The SEEO folks have convinced them if they link to a lot of bloggers,and then get trackbacks, it will raise their Google Rank.</p>
<p>Not on my watch. That crap just pollutes the comment stream. After the jump, you will find a run of bogus splogs, scrapers and spammers. If you blacklist them, you will see a huge reduction in this crap.</p>
<p>(Note: If you use Wordpress, you can simply grab all of this garbage and cut &amp; paste it into your Comment Blacklist under discussion settings):</p>
<p>Here is all of the spammage that has shown up this month alone:</p>
<p><span id="more-54039"></span></p>
<blockquote><p>autoinsurance.easyautosource.info<br />
38.107.232.5</p>
<p>comissionistavegas.com<br />
80.172.224.203</p>
<p>yankee500.com<br />
74.52.116.226</p>
<p>forexpublic.com<br />
174.120.105.2</p>
<p>yearn2blog.com<br />
174.120.42.66</p>
<p>prostatehealthcures.com<br />
80.237.237.194</p>
<p>stopdietingbootcamp.com<br />
74.52.155.194</p>
<p>theinternetmoney.com<br />
66.147.244.187</p>
<p>douglaslrichardson.com<br />
97.74.215.166</p>
<p>favstocks.com</p>
<p>articlesaboutonline.com<br />
174.120.201.66</p>
<p>oakleyjulietsunglasses.com<br />
74.52.151.66</p>
<p>immakemoneynow.com<br />
69.147.234.50</p>
<p>stlsocialmediareport.COM<br />
69.89.31.149</p>
<p>pets.myrvgear.com<br />
64.13.232.20</p>
<p>thefishingposition.com<br />
67.18.5.2</p>
<p>ipadtest.wordpress.com<br />
72.233.96.150</p>
<p>twittertreasurechesttweet.com<br />
12.97.188.16</p>
<p>thedelightfulmerchant.com<br />
208.101.4.118</p>
<p>diversifiedoptionstrading.com<br />
74.220.207.162</p>
<p>gerald-pilcher.com<br />
207.182.149.119</p>
<p>crazysiteonline.com<br />
69.89.31.208</p>
<p>airplanecribbedding.net<br />
74.52.105.34</p>
<p>insightswithoutborders.com<br />
66.147.240.156</p>
<p>friendsofbriankolb.com<br />
208.109.138.202</p>
<p>angelsupply.com<br />
174.132.114.66</p>
<p>abworkoutscoach-bernie.com<br />
69.175.13.226</p>
<p>dietsrating.com<br />
207.182.147.195</p>
<p>hunterlevelingx.com<br />
174.120.201.34</p>
<p>dcamarketingonline.com<br />
74.54.108.130</p>
<p>instanthealthinsurancequoteswisconsin.net<br />
174.132.155.26</p>
<p>growinghair.net<br />
69.89.31.230</p>
<p>ebay-for-beginners.cz.cc<br />
64.191.55.181</p>
<p>djkstore.com<br />
174.132.157.66</p>
<p>affiliatesecretfornewbie.com<br />
202.75.62.144</p>
<p>affiliatehowtoguide.com<br />
69.175.89.58</p>
<p>speedreadingtalk.com<br />
174.121.36.226</p>
<p>discounthomewares.com<br />
74.86.142.37</p>
<p>radialtyres.info<br />
74.52.168.194</p>
<p>bridgeportctusa.com<br />
174.132.159.162</p>
<p>suburbanponderosa.com<br />
174.132.159.162</p>
<p>thesecret4riches.com<br />
174.120.61.2</p>
<p>electricairsoftpistols.net<br />
69.65.33.36</p>
<p>up-selltoday.com<br />
174.120.128.194</p>
<p>adult-guitar-lessons.com<br />
65.98.16.194</p>
<p>heliotavares.com<br />
174.120.201.226</p>
<p>moviebizcoach.com<br />
64.34.161.198</p>
<p>viaaffiliate.com<br />
69.175.118.170</p>
<p>topaffiliateprogramonline.com<br />
74.220.207.147</p>
<p>registryfixsoftware.net<br />
174.120.17.194</p>
<p>livingstonvisitor.com<br />
74.220.207.137</p>
<p>campingstoveburner.com<br />
74.52.239.18</p>
<p>snorganize.com<br />
74.53.26.194</p>
<p>onlineseobloggers.info<br />
174.120.31.66</p>
<p>controllingdiabetesforlife.com<br />
75.126.9.98</p>
<p>optionstradingauthority.com<br />
64.5.33.164</p>
<p>girlskateboarddecks.net<br />
74.52.154.130</p>
<p>best-datingguide.com<br />
74.53.103.34</p>
<p>thepowerjuicerinfo.com<br />
174.120.172.130</p>
<p>vanquishanxietypanic.com<br />
174.120.19.66</p>
<p>rattanfurniture-indonesia.com/<br />
216.45.60.90</p>
<p>sportsbettingsystemsinfo.com/<br />
74.52.115.34</p>
<p>RealEstateOnlineGuide.org<br />
74.53.110.194</p>
<p>cityoflondonuk.com<br />
67.225.161.12</p>
<p>needabandaid.com<br />
174.120.200.226</p>
<p>natural-tinnitus-relief.com<br />
174.120.29.66</p>
<p>hostileworkplaces.com<br />
208.53.168.14</p>
<p>cheapax.com/electronics<br />
174.121.33.162</p>
<p>finances2u.com<br />
174.120.234.98</p>
<p>ordercallofduty.com<br />
74.220.207.159</p>
<p>howtowinmyexback.com<br />
12.132.193.51</p>
<p>toursincapetown.com<br />
74.200.212.90</p>
<p>reversemortgagemarketing.org<br />
174.132.105.66</p>
<p>chinaday.co.cc<br />
174.120.31.34</p>
<p>dietbrillance.com<br />
74.52.60.50</p>
<p>beststocktradesblog.com<br />
174.120.240.226</p>
<p>zamoractual.com<br />
80.237.132.82</p>
<p>netprofitcenterinc.com<br />
69.175.59.218</p>
<p>simplesixfiguresreviewonline.com<br />
174.120.243.130</p>
<p>reviewsthatrock.com<br />
174.120.105.98</p>
<p>seanwyseman.com<br />
74.52.68.98</p>
<p>reservicesofca.com<br />
174.120.105.194</p>
<p>freefromthedayjob.com<br />
174.120.171.98</p>
<p>gamblr.info<br />
208.113.232.161</p>
<p>games.silmarwen.com<br />
174.120.9.98</p>
<p>marketsbodylanguage.wordpress.com<br />
66.135.48.209</p>
<p>funandcreativedates.com<br />
66.96.128.63</p>
<p>myhealthylegacy.com<br />
66.147.242.152</p>
<p>theholidayspotter.com<br />
74.53.69.210</p>
<p>itsalifestylefitness.com<br />
66.147.242.182</p>
<p>personalinjuryclaimslawyer.org<br />
66.147.240.182</p>
<p>rogerrecommends.com<br />
69.89.31.239</p>
<p>bestlcd40.info0<br />
174.120.11.34</p>
<p>over50athletes.com<br />
68.169.43.37</p>
<p>viralstash.com/<br />
74.220.219.68</p>
<p>rainmanmarketing.com<br />
69.89.31.143</p>
<p>information-pool.com/<br />
212.227.118.7</p>
<p>fudisafasjkl@yahoo.com<br />
59.60.120.119</p>
<p>ipodnytt.com<br />
66.118.171.120</p>
<p>average-credit-score.net<br />
67.215.248.8</p>
<p>best-home-business-model.com<br />
174.120.180.226</p>
<p>myspot4news.com<br />
98.130.2.106</p>
<p>best-golftipsinfo.com<br />
174.120.0.66</p>
<p>creditrepairdebtsolution.com<br />
66.197.220.135</p>
<p>findhomeforsales.com<br />
74.52.67.178</p>
<p>truecreditnow.com<br />
38.96.198.58</p>
<p>kevinbauer.net<br />
174.120.155.226</p>
<p>usmotorbikes.lioncitymarket.info<br />
174.120.139.34</p>
<p>playstation3gameconsole.com<br />
174.120.201.98</p>
<p>thebloghatter.info<br />
174.120.6.66</p>
<p>easybadcreditmortgagerefinance.com<br />
174.132.192.98</p>
<p>iclickibuy.com<br />
74.220.207.191</p>
<p>alcoholicchristians.com<br />
66.147.244.164</p>
<p>cheapoldcarsinusa.com<br />
110.172.18.29</p>
<p>makemoneyonline.pk<br />
124.109.48.193</p>
<p>iphoneindia.net<br />
208.109.22.79</p></blockquote>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/what-is-with-all-the-trackback-spam/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>4</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Daily Show on Financial Reform</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/daily-show-on-financial-reform/</link>
		<comments>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/daily-show-on-financial-reform/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Mar 2010 19:01:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Barry Ritholtz</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Bailouts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Humor]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Television]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=54557</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&#62;
The Daily Show just kills it in this piece on Corporate fraud.
If you haven&#8217;t seen it (posted early this morning in the Think Tank) its must viewing.
&#62;
]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span style="color: #ffffff;">&gt;</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 1.2em;">The Daily Show just kills it in this piece on Corporate fraud.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 1.2em;">If you haven&#8217;t seen it <a href=" http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/tds-in-dodd-we-trust/">(posted early this morning in the Think Tank)</a> its must viewing.</span></p>
<p><span style="color: #ffffff;">&gt;</span></p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/daily-show-on-financial-reform/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Art Cashin St. Patty&#8217;s Day</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/art-cashin-st-pattys-day/</link>
		<comments>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/art-cashin-st-pattys-day/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Mar 2010 18:30:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Barry Ritholtz</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Video]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=54556</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Art Cashin, head of floor operations at UBS, has the buzz from the NYSE.


Airtime: Wed. Mar. 17 2010 &#124; 8:47 AM ET
]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Art Cashin, head of floor operations at UBS, has the buzz from the NYSE.</p>
<p><object id="cnbcplayer" height="380" width="400" classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=9,0,0,0" ><param name="type" value="application/x-shockwave-flash"/><param name="allowfullscreen" value="true"/><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"/><param name="quality" value="best"/><param name="scale" value="noscale" /><param name="wmode" value="transparent"/><param name="bgcolor" value="#000000"/><param name="salign" value="lt"/><param name="movie" value="http://plus.cnbc.com/rssvideosearch/action/player/id/1443230908/code/cnbcplayershare"/><embed name="cnbcplayer" PLUGINSPAGE="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" allowfullscreen="true" allowscriptaccess="always" bgcolor="#000000" height="380" width="400" quality="best" wmode="transparent" scale="noscale" salign="lt" src="http://plus.cnbc.com/rssvideosearch/action/player/id/1443230908/code/cnbcplayershare" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" /><br />
</object></p>
<p>Airtime: Wed. Mar. 17 2010 | 8:47 AM ET</p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/art-cashin-st-pattys-day/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Five Ways to Become Happier Today</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/five-ways-to-become-happier-today/</link>
		<comments>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/five-ways-to-become-happier-today/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Mar 2010 18:13:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Barry Ritholtz</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Weekend]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/five-ways-to-become-happier-today/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[
]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><script src="http://video.bigthink.com/player.js?embedCode=cyeDR3OpVdAQq066NCzLwiKA0A6d-Zfs&#038;height=341&#038;deepLinkEmbedCode=cyeDR3OpVdAQq066NCzLwiKA0A6d-Zfs&#038;width=512&#038;autoplay=0"></script></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Is The Mortgage Program Ending or Pausing On April 1?</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/is-the-mortgage-program-ending-or-pausing-on-april-1/</link>
		<comments>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/is-the-mortgage-program-ending-or-pausing-on-april-1/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Mar 2010 15:15:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>James Bianco</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Think Tank]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=54552</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[


Comment

The interview above was done as part of the pre-game show for the FOMC meeting. To view the interview click on picture above.  To see any of our interviews click here.
In the interview we were asked what the Federal Reserve could do to satisfy the hawks.  We said they could toughen up the language [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div>
<p><a href="http://www.criticalmention.com/vg/biancoresearch/2010-03-16_cnbc_1400.wmv" target="_blank"><img src="http://www.arborresearch.com/biancoresearch-files/SubscriberArea/newsclips/2010/03/jim0316.gif" alt="" width="320" height="212" /></a><a href="http://www.criticalmention.com/vg/biancoresearch/" target="_blank"><br />
</a></p>
<p>Comment</p>
<div>
<p>The interview above was done as part of the pre-game show for the FOMC meeting. To view the interview click on picture above.  To see any of our interviews click <a href="http://www.arborresearch.com/biancoresearch/?page_id=4654" target="_blank">here.</a></p>
<p>In the interview we were asked what the Federal Reserve could do to satisfy the hawks.  We said they could toughen up the language on the end of the mortgage purchase program.</p>
<p>Steve Liesman misunderstood us, believing we were trying to say the program might not end on April 1.  This is not in doubt.  What is in doubt is whether the Federal Reserve will be forced to restart the repurchase program after April 1.</p>
<p>In our discussions with mortgage traders many of them believe the Federal Reserve is only “pausing” and not “ending” the program on April 1.  They believe that when (not if) the mortgage market runs into trouble, the Federal Reserve will be forced to restart their money printing to support mortgages.  And when they do, the size of the purchases will be infinite for as long as is needed, despite what they Federal Reserve may say.  You cannot keep increasing the size and scope of these programs without everyone realizing they are never going away.</p>
<p>A main reason many mortgage traders thought the mortgage program was only pausing and not ending was this phrase from the last several FOMC statements, including the <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20100127a.htm" target="_blank">January 27 FOMC statement</a>:</p>
<p><em>The Committee will continue to evaluate its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets.</em></p>
<p>Yesterday, in the <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20100316a.htm" target="_blank">March 16 FOMC statement</a>, the Federal Reserve did alter this language:</p>
<p><em>The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial  developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to promote economic  recovery and price stability. </em>[our emphasis]<em><br />
</em></p>
<p>Mortgage traders believe this to be more “dovish” language and further underscores their belief that the Federal Reserve is worried about ending the mortgage purchase program.  The Federal Reserve will not have printed its last dollars to buy mortgages in two weeks.</p>
<p>Many economists believe the end of this program will be a non-event because everyone knows the Federal Reserve will no longer be in the mortgage market on April 1.  This makes sense unless a fair number believe it is only pausing and not ending.  In this case the market might not have discounted the end of the program and mortgages could hit turbulence once these purchases stop.</p>
<p>The Federal Reserve is in a tough spot because they can never say never regarding restarting mortgage purchases.</p>
</div>
<ul>
<li>The Wall Street Journal – <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703734504575125412217531970.html?mod=WSJ_hps_LEFTWhatsNews" target="_blank">Fed to End Mortgage-Purchase Program</a><br />
The Federal Reserve said it will end, as planned, one of its main supports for the U.S. economy—purchases of $1.25 trillion of mortgage-backed securities—allowing a nascent economic recovery to stand with less government support…The Fed will complete the mortgage-backed securities purchases by the end of March, winding down a program that it and many economists believe played an important role in preventing a much deeper recession. The purchases helped drive up the value of these securities and thus drove down mortgage interest rates and helped financial markets…Some analysts have worried that the end to the Fed’s mortgage buying could raise mortgage rates. So far that hasn’t happened. Rates on 30-year mortgages have fallen to around 5.05% from 5.28% at the start of the year, according to research firm HSH Associates, even as Fed officials telegraphed the program would end soon.</li>
<li>Real Time Economics (WSJ Blog) – <a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/03/16/whats-next-for-the-fed-and-mortgages/" target="_blank">What’s Next for the Fed and Mortgages?</a><br />
What happens next? Even Fed officials would acknowledge a reasonable amount of uncertainty about how the mortgage market will function once its biggest buyer — the central bank — steps aside. Many pension funds, insurers and other institutional investors fled the market once the Fed showed up as a giant noneconomic buyer. (To reach its target, the Fed bought up not only most of the new agency MBS but also existing securities held in portfolios.) As a result, some investors have suggested over the past year that mortgage rates could shoot up by a percentage point as the Fed program ended. But if that’s the case rates should’ve started rising already given the Fed’s signals. Mortgage rates probably will rise somewhat as Treasury yields move higher in the coming months, but the spread between mortgages and government securities may not necessarily expand. (Among the market projections: Barclays Capital expects mortgage rates to rise as much as half a percentage point during the second quarter largely due to rising Treasury yields.) If the “stock” view is correct — that the Fed’s total holdings matter more than its pace of purchases — then mortgage rates should rise slowly as mortgage securities roll off the Fed balance sheet. The New York Fed’s Brian Sack last week said the Fed projects that more than $200 billion in MBS and agency debt held by the central bank will mature or be prepaid by the end of 2011. That suggests a measured tightening as the Fed balance sheet shrinks naturally over time.</li>
<li>Bloomberg.com – <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&amp;sid=aGUYAd9EeeH0" target="_blank">Stiglitz Says Fed Stimulus Withdrawal May Hurt U.S.</a><br />
The Federal Reserve’s decision to let its mortgage-debt purchase programs end this month risks driving up home-loan rates and worsening the housing crisis, Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz said. “The withdrawal of the support risks increasing the interest rate, increasing the number of foreclosures and exacerbating the strain, the stress, that American families are already facing,” Stiglitz said in an interview in Tokyo. He said officials “misjudged things,” and predicted foreclosures and bank failures this year will exceed the 2009 and 2008 totals. Stiglitz said the main dangers for the global economy are that central banks will “exit too rapidly” from measures adopted during the crisis, propelled in part by an “irrational” fear among some investors that inflation will soar. The liquidity created by central banks battling the recession isn’t likely to fuel consumer prices because of subdued consumer demand, he said.</li>
</ul>
</div>
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		<title>NBER: Having It Both Ways?</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/nber-having-it-both-ways/</link>
		<comments>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/nber-having-it-both-ways/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Mar 2010 15:00:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Invictus</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Data Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Research]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=54532</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[There seems to be growing consensus that the recession ended some time in mid-2009 (June or July), and we recently pointed out that regional St. Louis Fed economists have placed their bets on a July 2009 trough. Now it&#8217;s up to the NBER.
We know that they weigh a variety of economic indicators, including Employment, Industrial Production, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There seems to be growing consensus that the recession ended some time in mid-2009 (June or July), and <a href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/01/dude-wheres-my-recession-bar/" target="_blank">we recently pointed out</a> that regional St. Louis Fed economists have placed their bets on a July 2009 trough. Now it&#8217;s up to the NBER.</p>
<p>We know that they weigh a variety of economic indicators, including Employment, Industrial Production, Real Income, and Real Retail Sales (tracked <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.com/economy/us/" target="_blank">here</a> at the St. Louis Fed). Business Cycle Dating Committee member <a href="http://content.ksg.harvard.edu/blog/jeff_frankels_weblog/2009/06/08/the-labor-market-has-not-yet-signaled-a-turning-point/" target="_blank">Jeffrey Frankel likes to look at aggregate hours</a>, too. In the real world, all of this is mostly an academic exercise in any event &#8212; Americans, like Associate Justice Potter Stewart once famously said on a different topic altogether, know a recession when they see one, and they also generally have a pretty good idea when it&#8217;s ended.  (I take pride in having nailed the NBER&#8217;s call that the recession began in December 2007 while <a href="http://www.blah3.com/article.php?story=20081108083643985" target="blank">blogging elsewhere</a>.)</p>
<p>But what about GDP? How does it figure into the equation? We&#8217;ve had two consecutive quarters of growth, including the 5.9 percent of Q4 2009. How will that play?</p>
<p>Well, it&#8217;s a interesting question, as the NBER has very contradictory and conflicting information at its own website about how it weighs the evidence:</p>
<p>In announcing the 2001 recession, <a href="http://www.nber.com/cycles/november2001/">the NBER said</a> (emphasis mine):</p>
<blockquote><p>Because a recession influences the economy broadly and is not confined to one sector, the committee emphasizes economy-wide measures of economic activity. The traditional role of the committee is to maintain a monthly chronology, so the committee <strong>refers almost exclusively to monthly indicators. The committee gives <span style="color: #ff0000;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">relatively little weight to real GDP</span> </span>because it is only measured quarterly and it is subject to continuing, large revisions.</strong></p></blockquote>
<p>Got that?  Okay, let&#8217;s move on.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.nber.com/cycles/recessions.html" target="_blank">October 21, 2003 Memo from the Committee </a>(not coinciding with a peak or trough announcement; emphasis mine):</p>
<blockquote><p>The committee views real GDP as the single best measure of aggregate economic activity. In determining whether a recession has occurred and in identifying the approximate dates of the peak and the trough, <strong><span style="color: #ff0000;">the committee therefore <span style="text-decoration: underline;">places considerable weight</span> on the estimates of real GDP <span style="color: #000000;">issued by the Bureau of Economic Analysis</span></span></strong> of the U.S. Department of Commerce. The traditional role of the committee is to maintain a monthly chronology, however, and the BEA&#8217;s real GDP estimates are only available quarterly. For this reason, the committee refers to a variety of monthly indicators to determine the months of peaks and troughs.</p></blockquote>
<p>Although the Committee qualifies its October 2003 remarks by mentioning the need to maintain a monthly chronology, the two comments nonetheless seem contradictory to me, and flip-flop the importance of what is to be considered.</p>
<p>Whichever way they eventually call it, the NBER will have a document to which it can point to support its decision.  Is it time &#8212; or long past &#8212; to formalize what it means to be in, or out of, recession?  If so, my vote might easily go to the <a href="http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/research/data/cfnai/current_data.cfm" target="_blank">Chicago Fed&#8217;s National Activity Index</a>.</p>
<p><span style="color: #ffffff;">&gt;</span></p>
<p><a href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/cfnai_data_2_11678_image021.png" target="_blank"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-54553" title="cfnai_data_2_11678_image021" src="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/cfnai_data_2_11678_image021.png" alt="" width="604" height="362" /></a></p>
<p><span style="color: #ffffff;">&gt;</span></p>
<p>The Chicago Fed provides the following bogeys:  &#8221;A CFNAI-MA3 value below –0.70 following a period of economic expansion indicates an increasing likelihood that a recession has begun. A CFNAI-MA3 value above –0.70 following a period of economic contraction indicates an increasing likelihood that a recession has ended. A CFNAI-MA3 value above +0.20 following a period of economic contraction indicates a significant likelihood that a recession has ended.&#8221;  <!--Display the paragraph title with one of three treatments from the header style select box -->It is an <strong>excellent</strong> indicator.</p>
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		<title>PPI falls more than expected but old news</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/ppi-falls-more-than-expected-but-old-news/</link>
		<comments>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/ppi-falls-more-than-expected-but-old-news/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Mar 2010 14:22:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Peter Boockvar</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[MacroNotes]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=54551</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Feb PPI fell .6% headline vs expectations of a drop of .2% but the core gain of .1% was right in line with forecasts. The headline figure was led lower by a 2.9% fall in energy prices (led by gasoline) while food prices rose .4%. Energy prices have since reversed, with gasoline in particular at [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Feb PPI fell .6% headline vs expectations of a drop of .2% but the core gain of .1% was right in line with forecasts. The headline figure was led lower by a 2.9% fall in energy prices (led by gasoline) while food prices rose .4%. Energy prices have since reversed, with gasoline in particular at the highest level since Oct &#8216;08 so PPI will move up again in March. Inflation in the pipeline was mixed but comes after strong gains in Jan. Goods at the intermediate stage of production rose .1% after a 1.7% gain in Jan. Ex f&amp;f it was up .9%. Crude goods inflation fell 3.5% but follows a 9.6% rise in Jan. Ex f&amp;f, prices fell .6% but follows a 6.6% gain in Jan. On a y/o/y basis, overall PPI is up 4.4% and the core is up 1%. Bottom line, because of the moving piece of energy, the headline fall is old news and tomorrow&#8217;s CPI report will be more relevant to market action.</p>
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		<title>BoJ and FOMC, BFF</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/boj-and-fomc-bff/</link>
		<comments>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/boj-and-fomc-bff/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Mar 2010 12:20:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Peter Boockvar</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[MacroNotes]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=54550</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The BoJ and FOMC, BFF. Overnight, the BoJ held hands with the FOMC in keeping rates at virtually zero. They also expanded its 3 month credit program to 20t yen from 10t. Japanese stocks rallied and the yen is down but 10 yr JGB&#8217;s are little changed. Commodity prices are rallying in response. Chinese stocks [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The BoJ and FOMC, BFF. Overnight, the BoJ held hands with the FOMC in keeping rates at virtually zero. They also expanded its 3 month credit program to 20t yen from 10t. Japanese stocks rallied and the yen is down but 10 yr JGB&#8217;s are little changed. Commodity prices are rallying in response. Chinese stocks rallied 2% after a PBOC Q1 inflation expectations index fell from the record high in Q4. UK jobless claims were much better than expected and the pound is rising to a 4 week high. The US$ index is at 6 week low with the Canadian $ in particular .01 shy of parity to the US$. The weekly ABC confidence poll showed big improvement, rising 6 pts to -43, its highest level since Jan 5th and is now 4 pts above its one year avg. The MBA said the avg 30 yr mortgage rate fell to a 12 week low at 4.91% but purchases fell 2.3% and refi&#8217;s were down 1.7%. II: Bulls 46.1 v 44.9 Bears 21.3 v 23.6</p>
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		<title>Counter-Cyclical Spending (during recessions)</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/counter-cyclical-spending/</link>
		<comments>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/counter-cyclical-spending/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Mar 2010 12:15:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Barry Ritholtz</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Consumer Spending]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cycles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Psychology/Sentiment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Retail]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=53829</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[One of the things I hate about a secular bull market &#8212; especially towards its rampaging tail end &#8212; is how everyone and everything gets silly. Money and champagne flows, conspicuous consumption is on full display. I recall people  &#8212; literally &#8212;  dancing on bars during the late 90s in NYC.
To be sure, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>One of the things I hate about a secular bull market &#8212; especially towards its rampaging tail end &#8212; is how everyone and everything gets silly. Money and champagne flows, conspicuous consumption is on full display. I recall people  &#8212; literally &#8212;  dancing on bars during the late 90s in NYC.</p>
<p>To be sure, Fed Chair Alan Greenspan was not going to be the spoilsport and take away the punchbowl. Every one was having a good old time.</p>
<p>Except the people who <em>knew. </em>Those worrywarts who looked at price, at valuations, who are familiar with market history and understood mean reversion. These folks were aware of what was going to come next.</p>
<p>I hated the Manhattan party atmosphere in 1999; it was obvious how (but not precisely when)  it was going to end: <em>Badly.</em> The prices paid for baubles, the reckless, conspicuous consumption, and ostentatious displays of wealth &#8212; <em>paying more than full retail</em> &#8212; it was all a symptom of way too much money sloshing around.</p>
<p>Mal-investments were everywhere, and prices became stupid &#8212; for cars, for apartments, and of course, for equities.</p>
<p><em>That is, to say the least, no longer the case (equities excepted).</em></p>
<p>Prices have plummeted, consumers are de-leveraging, and cash is king, For those of you consumers who are value sensitive &#8212; and still have jobs &#8212; this current environment is far more attractive a period of time to acquire goods and services than the mayhem at bull market tops. Everything is priced to sell.</p>
<p>I started thinking about this issue in mid 2008 when a wealthy client had said the following to me:<em> &#8220;Barry, I appreciate you steering us away from trouble during this mess, but your commentary is so relentlessly negative, its a bummer to read. What can you tell me that is not utterly depressing?&#8221;</em></p>
<p>Now, this gentlemen measures his wealth in GDP of small countries, and while we have many similar interests &#8212; cars, watches, boats, travel, music, etc. &#8212; his &#8220;collections&#8221; are insane, museum quality work. (I have an old SL, he has a airplane hanger full of fully restored 196os Ferraris; I have a few nice antique watches, he has million dollar time pieces).  So my advice &#8211;  I mentioned this on Tech Ticker &#8212; was as follows: &#8220;<em>Make a wish list of what you have wanted to own, but were unwilling to pay top dollar for. Could be real estate, art work, collectible autos, jewels, sports franchises. Bid 50% of the </em><em>peak </em><em>market price. Then sit back to see what happens.&#8221;</em></p>
<p>He thanked me for that, and acquired a number of items at a hefty discount to market value.</p>
<p>Which leads me to this question for us mortals: Are any of you readers going on a &#8220;spending spree&#8221; of sorts? What are you purchasing? What assets have dropped enough in price that they have tempted you to step up to the plate and buy?</p>
<p>Since the crisis began, I have advised clients to consider buying:</p>
<blockquote><p>-Homes, Vacation Properties<br />
-Renovations, Construction, Extensions<br />
-Vacations, Travel<br />
-Collectible Automobiles<br />
-Investments, Stocks, funds<br />
-Boats, Planes, recreational vehicles<br />
-Art &amp; Sculptures?<br />
-Audio, Video, Electronics, Computers.<br />
-Watches, Jewelry (especially those of Precious Metals)</p></blockquote>
<p>Fortunately, I avoided temptation and did not make many dumb purchases at the top. That made me more comfortable buying distressed assets after the prices collapsed. And, putting my money where my mouth is, I have made many purchases this down cycle (no Gulfstream, but much of the rest of the list).</p>
<p>So my question is simply this: <em>What are you buying?</em></p>
<p>~~~</p>
<p>For those of you who want to be anonymous, send me an email at thebigpicture at optonline dot net, and I will assemble a list of the most interesting purchases for a future post . . .</p>
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