Succinct Summations of Week’s Events 10.10.14

Succinct Summations week ending October 10th

Positives:

1. Despite the recent bout of volatility, the S&P 500 is just under 5% off its all-time highs.
2. The national price of gasoline fell to $3.24, the lowest since December 2013.
3. Initial jobless claims came down to 287k while the 4 week average is at the lowest levels since ’06.
4. MBA refi applications rose 5% w/o/w as mortgage rates hit a 4-week low.
5. Japanese machine orders rose 4.7% m/o/m, above the 0.5% expected advance.

Negatives:

1. It was a bad week for the global stock market. The MSCI ACWI has a three week losing streak for the first time in 14 months.
2. Rough data out of Germany sent the Dax and other indices tumbling as they missed expectations on exports, industrial production and factory orders.
3. Japan consumer confidence fell to a 4-month low.
4. Eurozone retail PMI fell to 44.8, glued below the neutral levels.
5. Volatility is back, the S&P 500 was up/down 1% in six of the last eleven sessions.
6. The Russell 2000 is down for the sixth straight week, just one away from a record.

 

 

 

Category: Markets

U.S. Stocks Erase the Years Best Rally: What’s Next?

Stocks fell around the world, and oil extended declines after entering a bear market on mounting concern that global economic growth is slowing.


Source: Bloomberg, Oct. 10 2014

Category: Media, Video

Wherein I Correct Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahneman’s Math

I am a fan of Morgan Housel, columnist at the Motley Fool. His writings evince a strong understanding of behavioral issues, and he has a gift of sifting through the nonsense to get to what really matters. Only on rare occasions do I get to disagree with him. Today is one of those times. Housel has…Read More

Category: Bad Math, Psychology

10 Friday Reads

Time flies when the market swings — and today looks rough as well. Your morning reads have arrived just in time: • Why did the stock market plummet Thursday? (TRB)  see also  Stocks Worldwide Extend Selloff as Brent Falls With Metals (Bloomberg) • Monetary policy: An unconventional tool — The Fed’s quantitative easing raises questions about…Read More

Category: Financial Press

Media Appearance Bloomberg TV (8:00-9:30 am)

Bloomberg Surveillance   I am going to be appearing on Bloomberg TV this morning with Matt Miller from 8:00 am – 9:00 am. Subjects we are discussing: 1. Markets: Signs of a Bull Market Turning Bear 2. Interview: Elon Musk 3. China and the changing world economy . . . The live TV streams here.

Category: Media

Lamborghini Asterion LPI 910-4 (Hybrid!)

From Classic Driver: Lamborghini has just unveiled its first plug-in hybrid car at the Paris Motor Show, but this is no radical hypercar. Designed as a ‘technology demonstrator’ for now, the Asterion LPI 910-4 is reminiscent of the Estoque concept, which also debuted at Paris back in 2008… Source: Classic Driver Lamborghini is best known…Read More

Category: Weekend

Demographic Trends and Growth in Japan and the United States

Demographic Trends and Growth in Japan and the United States Thomas Klitgaard and Preston Mui Liberty Street, October 08, 2014     Japan’s population is shrinking and getting older, with the population falling at a 0.2 percent rate this year and the working-age population (ages 16 to 64) falling at a much faster rate of almost 1.5 percent. In contrast,…Read More

Category: Think Tank

Yesterday’s Bear Column on BBRG Home Page

Hey, this is pretty cool: Yesterday morning’s column on the Signs of a Bull Market Turning Bear  made the home page of Bloomberg.com . . .   Click for bear column

Category: Markets, Media

10 Thursday PM Reads

My afternoon train reads: • Pimco shows that star investors are not really solo artists (FT.com) • Making a Move with Bond ETFs: What do you do when you want to sell one of your investments, but aren’t sure what to do next? (BlackRock) see also Bad Habits in Asset Allocation (Chief Investment Officer) • RailPen, BT…Read More

Category: Financial Press

AAII Presentation: Brain on Stocks

The ongoing battle between you and that large, mostly under-utilized slab of grey matter resting atop your spinal cord, doing very little of anything (except keeping you alive…)   AAII Brain on Stocks Presentsation NYC 2014   Downlaod: AAII NYC 2014  

Category: Cognitive Foibles, Psychology