“Men in the game are blind to what men looking on see clearly.” ~ Chinese Proverb In the game of investing, the players are often the ones who are unknowingly being played… The phrase, caught up in the game, can be attributed to “blind ambition” and the emotional trappings that accompany the desire to win….Read More
Late night at the TunnelTop bar in SF, slow getting in gear this morning. (How ever do you West Coast finance folks do this?) My morning noon reads: • What 118 Fed Rate Increases Since 1948 Show as Economy Falters (Bloomberg) • The trouble with factors (Humble Student of the Markets) • There’s an Uber for Everything Now (WSJ)…Read More
Category: Financial Press
I love this collection of Paul Tudor Jones insights and rules by way of Ivanhoff Capital: 13 Insights From Paul Tudor Jones 1. Markets have consistently experienced “100-year events” every five years. While I spend a significant amount of my time on analytics and collecting fundamental information, at the end of the day, I am…Read More
Close But Not There Yet: Getting to Full Employment in the United States By Ravi Balakrishnan and Juan Solé iMFdirect April 28, 2015 Last month’s report on U.S. jobs was disappointing, with far fewer jobs than expected added in March. A longer-term look at trends yields a different picture, however. Over the past year, U.S. job creation has…Read More
Very interesting analysis on the Not in Labor Force cohort from Bloomberg Briefs:
In an economic cycle which has consistently been sluggish — from the overall pace of growth to wage pressures to inflation — the decline in the unemployment rate in the past several years has been truly impressive. Still, falling participation and rising wage inflation may be the more pressing labor trends for policy makers to watch.
After peaking at 10 percent in late 2009, the unemployment rate began a downtrend that has accelerated as the economy approaches full employment. As of March, the jobless rate was 5.5 percent, or 1.1 percentage points lower than a year ago. Barring the past few years, this pace of improvement has not been witnessed since the economy surged out of the deep recession of 1981-82, which was also the last time unemployment rose above 10 percent. In that period, real GDP grew in the vicinity of 8 percent, almost triple the current pace of 2.7 percent (both measures are the year-on-year percentage change of the four-quarter moving average).
The current decline in unemployment is much less impressive because of the concurrent fall in labor force participation (the sum of those who are employed or actively seeking employment as a share of the population). If potential workers become frustrated with the job search and stop actively looking, unemployment can fall for the wrong reasons as the participation rate also drops. This overstates the degree of improvement in the labor market. As a result, the trajectory of the participation rate will materially affect how policy makers interpret the unemployment rate’s approach toward 5 percent.
* snip *
The rest is at Bloomberg Briefs (subscription)
I must be fully on West Coast time, because these morning reads are coming out later and later each day: • Test drive of a petrol car (Tesla Club Sweden) • Bernanke Inc.: Lucrative Life of a Former Fed Chairman (Bloomberg) • Why words are the new numbers (Chicago Booth School of Business) • The Amazon Web Services IPO (Stratechery) •…Read More
Category: Financial Press
Great couple of graphics from the WSJ this AM. This is the simple version, a short explanatory overlaid on a graph: Perfect Storm click for ginormous graphic Source: WSJ The interactive version is far richer and more details as tot he minute by minute set up: Flash Crash’ a Perfect Storm for Markets click…Read More
What makes this so good is how dead on accurate this collection of cliches have become: Click to create your own personal narrative. You may even get your own punditry spot. Source: Stockcats How awesome is this?!