Economic data

The Nov NY manufacturing survey fell sharply to -11.1 from 15.7 and was well below expectations of 14.0. It reflects a contraction for the 1st time since July ’09 but paradoxically, the 6 month outlook rose almost 15 pts to 54.6, the best since April. New Orders fell a huge 37.3 pts to -24.4 and Order Backlogs fell to -24.7 from -1.7. Employment fell to 9.1 from 21.7 and the Average Workweek fell to -13 from +3.3. Inventories rose to zero from -11.7. Notwithstanding the sharp rise in commodity prices, Prices Paid fell 8 pts to 22.1 and Prices Received fell 10 pts to -2.6. Bottom line, it’s tough to have a bottom line because of the very wide discrepancy between the current Nov reading and what mfr’s think about the future. Let’s wait to see the Philly survey on Thursday before jumping to any conclusions yet about Northeast manufacturing.

Oct Retail Sales rose 1.2% m/o/m, almost twice estimates of up .7% and mostly due to a 5% rise in auto’s/part sales. Taking out volatile auto sales and inflation induced gasoline station sales and the figure was up .4% vs the consensus of up .2%. Core sales, which are ex auto’s, gasoline, and building material’s, were up .2%. Sales gains were also seen in clothing (cotton inflation induced?), food/beverage (food inflation?), sporting goods, online retailers, and restaurant/bars. Furniture and electronic sales fell. Bottom line, sales continued to show gains as Oct is sort of the midpoint between back to school and the holiday season. Job gains and income growth are the key factors in the level of spending we will see and both have been improving, albeit not as fast as we would like. Also, higher commodity prices filtering into the cost of goods will have to be weighed against providing value to the consumer and the tradeoff will be key to watch.

Category: MacroNotes

10 Centuries in 5 Minutes

Hat tip Paul

Category: Weekend

Ireland decision not yet made/US bond yields continue higher

Irish bonds are bouncing for a 2nd day as a decision has not yet been made by Irish officials of whether to tap the EFSF for financing. Because Ireland’s government doesn’t need funding until the middle of ’11, any use of the facility will be used to further recapitalize Ireland’s busted banks. Greek debt is…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Global RE: The Chinese Are Coming !

> We interrupt our usual coverage of US housing to look at a fascinating and different RE market: Purchases of homes in other parts of the world by wealthy Chinese. The FT is reporting that: “Well-heeled Chinese property buyers are making their mark on housing markets worldwide. Some 475,000 Chinese have assets of $1m or…Read More

Category: Real Estate

Some Frequently Asked Q&A about the US stock market.

David R. Kotok Chairman and Chief Investment Officer Some Frequently Asked Q&A about the US stock market. November 15, 2010 > Do you think that the bull market is over? NO! This stock market rally started in March of 2009. It began from a level that represented massive fear and raw panic in the aftermath…Read More

Category: Markets, Think Tank

Contrary Indicator: New York Mag’s Optimism Cover?

New York Magazine’s cover: “Things are better than they seem. Honest.” Some of you are now thinking: “Uh-oh, another happy mag cover. That spells trouble for the stock market.” Let’s review if this meets our requirements for a major warning, a contrary indicator sufficient to halt the rising equity markets.  As it turns out, the…Read More

Category: Contrary Indicators, Financial Press

Taleb: Bernanke Doesn’t Understand Risks of QE2

Nassim Taleb, New York University professor and author of “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable,” discusses the Federal Reserve’s decision to initiate another round of quantitative easing. Taleb, speaking with Erik Schatzker on Bloomberg Television’s “Inside Track,” also talks about his new book “The Bed of Procrustes: Philosophical and Practical Aphorisms.”

Nov. 12 (Bloomberg)

Category: Federal Reserve, Video

New Elementary Particle Discovered (maybe)

Physics: Where we learn that the possible discovery of a fourth neutrino could help explain dark matter.


“Physicists working with a Fermilab neutrino experiment may have found a new elementary particle whose behavior breaks the known laws of physics. If correct, their results poke holes in the accepted Standard Model of particles and forces, and raise some interesting questions for the Large Hadron Collider and Tevatron experiments. The new particle could even explain the existence of dark matter.

Working with Fermilab’s MiniBooNE experiment — the first part of the larger planned Booster Neutrino Experiment — physicists found evidence for a fourth flavor of neutrino, according to a new paper published in Physical Review Letters. This means there could be another particle we didn’t know about, and that it behaves in a way physicists didn’t expect.

-Popular Science

Laws of Physics were made to be broken! (More Sciencey stuff after the jump)

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Category: Science, Weekend

FDIC Bank Failures

Our weekly look at bank failures, courtesy of The Chart Store: > click for larger charts Previously: FDIC Bank Failures

Category: Credit, Regulation

Deficit Problems? You Fix It!

David Leonhardt gives us this interesting interactive NYT graphic (and article) showing the deficit reduction options. They give you a worksheet and various options to reduce the deficits: Here is how I “solved” the shortfall — 61% of the fix are spending cuts, 39% of it was more taxes: > Budget Puzzle: You Fix the…Read More

Category: Current Affairs, Economy, Taxes and Policy