What does BoE and FOMC think about inflation?

With Jan PPI out today and CPI Thursday, this afternoon the minutes from the Jan FOMC meeting will reveal their thoughts of 3 weeks ago on the impact commodity inflation is or is not having on their inflation outlook. After yesterday’s 4% CPI print y/o/y in the UK, BoE Gov King said because he still expects inflation to slowdown in the medium term, he’s not in a rush to raise rates from the current historical low of .5%. Jan UK jobless claims did unexpectedly rise and it’s this concern with the economy that has him very reluctant to raise rates even as higher inflation poses its own threats. In the US, as the avg 30 yr mortgage rate last week was above 5%, the MBA said refi’s fell 11.4% to the lowest since July ’09 and purchases fell 5.9%, near the lowest since Oct. II: Bulls 52.2 v 53.4 Bears 19.6 v 23.3, .5 pt from lowest since April and those expecting a Correction (still a bull who wants to buy dip) rose to 28.2 from 23.3, the most since Nov.

Category: MacroNotes

Trading Rules, Aphorisms & Books

Expat writes:

I am interested in your opinion and advice. I traded oil for eighteen years before retiring to the south of France where I tend my orange trees and teach at two business schools in the area.  Since I know pretty much nothing, I am forced to teach the little I know, which is commodity trading.

I have canvassed my friends and enemies in the business and read good and bad books and articles by experts, so-called experts, and outright frauds.  I have plenty of information on fundamentals and the mechanics of markets, but it’s harder to teach students how traders think.

So, would you impart a few aphorisms, tips, or vapid advice . . .

Thanks, Chris, I have been meaning to pull all of these together in one place, and you motivated me to get off my bum and do so.

Start with these various rules:

Livermores Seven Trading Lessons

Bob Farrell’s 10 Rules for Investing

John Murphy’s Ten Laws of Technical Trading

Rules for Shorting

Art Huprich’s Market Truisms and Axioms


Lessons from Merrill Lynch

Rosie’s Rules to Remember

The Zen of Trading

Read More

Category: Trading

Madoff: Banks “Had to Know” of My Fraud

“They had to know.  But the attitude was sort of, ‘If you’re doing something wrong, we don’t want to know.’ ” -Bernie Madoff from Prison > The first interview for publication since being arrested in December 2008, Bernie Madoff speaks with the NYT. It is a bizarre and fascinating. One would expect a longer interview…Read More

Category: Legal

Bremmer: Emerging Markets Are Really to Blame for Rising Food Prices

Bernanke’s Off the Hook: Emerging Markets Are Really to Blame for Rising Food Prices, Says Bremmer
Stacy Curtin
Yahoo Tech Ticker Feb 14, 2011 03:06pm EST


Category: Inflation, Video

Tuesday Afternoon Reads

• Great Inflation Debate: Big Week for Inflationistas (Marketbeat) • Bubblemania: Is It Time to be Skeptical of the Skeptics? (Observer) • The History of Too Big To Fail (Focus) • Bernanke two-fer: -Fed dictator Bernanke needs to be toppled (Marketwatch) -The FOMC is Right to Stay the Course on QE2 (Jeff Frankels Weblog) •…Read More

Category: Financial Press

2012 US Budget: $3.7 Trillion

Interactive graphic from the NYT showing how the 2012 is allocated: > click for interactive graphic

Category: Digital Media, Taxes and Policy

Labor Costs vs Consumer Prices 1950-2010

> The Bloomberg chart above compares year-to-year percentage changes in labor costs and consumer prices – from 1950 to present,  for the past six decades (data source:  Labor Department). These indicators had a high correlation — 0.82 during the period — according to Brian Belski, chief investment strategist for Oppenheimer & Co.  Labor costs have…Read More

Category: Inflation, Wages & Income

Behind the Scenes at Pixar

Melena Ryzik gets a rare behind-the-scenes look at the Pixar Studios complex in California. Source: Animation Advocacy, Pixar Style MELENA RYZIK NYT, February 9, 2011 http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/10/movies/awardsseason/10bagger.html

Category: Film, Weekend

Tracking the Presidential Stock Cycle

> What a stock market!  Just 29 days (11.5 percent of the year) of trading into the year and the S&P500 is already up 5.94 percent,  outperforming the Presidential Stock Cycle chart analog by 150 bps.  This market is not allowing anyone to get in and those who take profits end up buying back their…Read More

Category: Politics, Technical Analysis

Economic data

The NAHB home builder sentiment survey was unch at 16, in line with expectations and flat for a 4th straight month. Present conditions rose by 2 pts to 17, the best since June. The Future outlook rose 1 pt. Prospective Buyers Traffic was unch at 12. Expressing how depressed the industry remains, 50 is the…Read More

Category: MacroNotes