“How Crazy Is That?”: Startups Are Safer Than Stocks, Howard Lindzon
Yahoo Tech Ticker Jul 14, 2010
Tomi Kilgore warns that the recent bounce may be a sucker’s rally:
“The current rally marks the fourth time since early May that the Dow Jones Industrial Average has bounced more than 5%. Previous bounces have taken the Dow above key resistance levels, and yet subsequent declines have resulted in even lower lows. Essentially, the recent pattern surrounding key technical breakdowns and breakouts suggests the Dow is nearing yet another turning point.
It is easy for bulls to fall into another technical trap, since the Dow has climbed above the 50-day simple moving average, which has acted as resistance since the Dow first fell below it in early May, and is now peeking above a downward sloping line that started at the April 26 high and connects the June 21 high. But rather than embolden bulls, the apparent breakout should actually make them skeptical, especially following a six-session rally. “
Other traps of note:
-When the Dow fell below the 200-day moving average;
-After the Dow closed above the 50-day moving average
-When the Dow hit a new low for the year.
-The break below the June 8 low of 9757 (confirming a head-and-shoulders pattern)
Kilgore wanrs that “those reacting to technical breakdowns and breakouts have been fooled many times. And keep in mind that the Dow’s last six-session winning streak ended on April 26, the day before the market correction began.”
The broad trading range, lack of volume, and short term trends that reverse have some people sitting on their hands. Its not a bad way to prevent them from doing something silly . . .
Investors Shouldn’t Be Fooled By Another Breakout
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES, TAKING STOCK: Jul 13 2010
I’ve attended Wired’s Disruptive By Design conferences, and they are always top notch. Here is the Conference Digital White Paper, with highlights from the WIRED Business Conference on June 14, at the Morgan Library in New York City. This White Paper features a summary of each session, where various business execs, including Howard Schultz, Frederick…Read More
Land Rover has revealed its newest model, a compact SUV dubbed the Range Rover Evoque. Based on the LRX concept that debuted in 2008, the two-door Evoque is the smallest, lightest Range Rover, and the company claims it will be the most fuel efficient Rover.
The reveal of the model will be at the 2010 Paris Motor Show in September; the car’s website — Hello Evoque — has a counter ticking down the minutes until then.
Plans for the Evoque include both a two-door and a four-door models.
The car has very interesting lines, but I expect this will run into the same rear visibility problems that are inherent in this design. There is a compromise between form and function for cars such as the BMW X6, Infinity FX, Acura ZDX, and Honda Crosstour –they all suffer some degradation of rear visibility as a result.
Morgan Stanley’s Stephen Roach tells WSJ’s Kelly Evans the fragile US recovery could be undone and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s policies too closely mirror Alan Greenspan’s. He also insists Asian economies aren’t ready to take the baton from the West.
7/9/2010 9:35:57 AM
Fascinating economic discussion from 3 Quarks Daily, on how the market for supermodels functions: “[Supermodel] Coco is what economists would call a winner in a “winner-take all market,” prevalent in culture industries like art and music, where a handful of people reap very lucrative and visible rewards while the bulk of contestants barely scrape by…Read More
Following policy changes in Taiwan, India, Malaysia and South Korea, Thailand raised rates by 25 bps to 1.5%. It was expected but this comes just a few months after daily rioting that threatened to derail their economy. A BoT official said “the economy has strengthened, so it’s time to start adjusting the rate to normal…Read More
Dear Short Sellers, it’s me Boockvar, pronounced without the C. Some think I’m Mr. Bear, I prefer Mr. Realist (reflation trade bull in March ’09). I’m writing now to say be very, very careful here into year end (2011 a different story with plenty of concern). Combine a settling down of European credit stress with…Read More
It turns out that Americans — at least 80% of them — have been paying attention: “Americans harbor doubts that a financial-regulation bill about to be passed by Congress will do what President Barack Obama says it will: help avoid another crisis and make their finances safer. Almost four out of five Americans surveyed in…Read More
Good Evening: U.S. stocks rallied for a sixth straight day on Tuesday, as a positive start to the Q2 earnings season last night was bolstered by a successful sale of short term Greek debt this morning. As a result, the S&P 500, which looked set to probe below 1000 less than two weeks ago, is…Read More