With Jan PPI out today and CPI Thursday, this afternoon the minutes from the Jan FOMC meeting will reveal their thoughts of 3 weeks ago on the impact commodity inflation is or is not having on their inflation outlook. After yesterday’s 4% CPI print y/o/y in the UK, BoE Gov King said because he still expects inflation to slowdown in the medium term, he’s not in a rush to raise rates from the current historical low of .5%. Jan UK jobless claims did unexpectedly rise and it’s this concern with the economy that has him very reluctant to raise rates even as higher inflation poses its own threats. In the US, as the avg 30 yr mortgage rate last week was above 5%, the MBA said refi’s fell 11.4% to the lowest since July ’09 and purchases fell 5.9%, near the lowest since Oct. II: Bulls 52.2 v 53.4 Bears 19.6 v 23.3, .5 pt from lowest since April and those expecting a Correction (still a bull who wants to buy dip) rose to 28.2 from 23.3, the most since Nov.
I am interested in your opinion and advice. I traded oil for eighteen years before retiring to the south of France where I tend my orange trees and teach at two business schools in the area. Since I know pretty much nothing, I am forced to teach the little I know, which is commodity trading.
I have canvassed my friends and enemies in the business and read good and bad books and articles by experts, so-called experts, and outright frauds. I have plenty of information on fundamentals and the mechanics of markets, but it’s harder to teach students how traders think.
So, would you impart a few aphorisms, tips, or vapid advice . . .
Thanks, Chris, I have been meaning to pull all of these together in one place, and you motivated me to get off my bum and do so.
Start with these various rules:
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Bernanke’s Off the Hook: Emerging Markets Are Really to Blame for Rising Food Prices, Says Bremmer
Yahoo Tech Ticker Feb 14, 2011 03:06pm EST
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Category: Financial Press
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The NAHB home builder sentiment survey was unch at 16, in line with expectations and flat for a 4th straight month. Present conditions rose by 2 pts to 17, the best since June. The Future outlook rose 1 pt. Prospective Buyers Traffic was unch at 12. Expressing how depressed the industry remains, 50 is the…Read More