Here we go again: Futures look very weak, with the Dow indicating a drop of 175 at the open.
The cascade is weak Euro (Greek related or not). The soft EU currency means a strong dollar, and that is pressuring Gold, Oil, and stocks. The 200-day moving averages have been minor support, but indices (Dow & S&P500) are in spitting distance. If we open where the futures suggest, we are blow right through them.
As noted yesterday, watch the May 6th intra-day lows –especially the volume as we approach that level.
I honestly don’t see what the Greek riots have to do with equities — despite the usual chatter. This has been going on for 6 months — why the sudden impact now? The good visuals make for good TV, but lousy equity strategy.
More likely, market weakness is based on other factors: We are sitting on top of 70%+ gains; mutual fund managers are all in, impacting liquidity; Supply is in control over Demand. Overall, the market simply looks tired.
Once again, with markets just a few weeks from their 18 months highs, I have to ask: Can you really believe equities “forecast” anything?
I find it so much more accurate to say they are a future discounting mechanism, one that reflects a million monkey’s probalistic expectations of future events. Often right, sometimes wrong, occasionally spectacularly so. But a leading indicator that accurately forecasts the future? Don’t make me laugh . . .
(Boy I hate being on West coast time — how do you guys do it?)
Good Evening: U.S. stocks retreated for the fourth time in five days on Wednesday as our capital markets struggled to digest both ill-advised trading policies out of Germany and weak economic statistics back home. The hopes that waxed so high last week that the massive EU rescue package would solve Europe’s debt problems are starting…Read More
As someone who goes to a broad mix of shows, I was surprised as to how pathetic this list is: Top 20 Concert Tours 1. (1) Bon Jovi; $1,901,442; $95.39. 2. (3) Jay-Z; $1,055,401; $82.75. 3. (4) Michael Buble; $949,624; $81.61. 4. (5) Taylor Swift; $901,328: $58.05. 5. (6) The Black Eyed Peas; $867,945; $63.57….Read More
The minutes from the April FOMC meeting have to be seen as old news in terms of their view of the economy since so much has changed with Europe and China over the last 3 weeks. There was comfort from most members with their benign outlook on inflation which in turn gives them the belief…Read More
The Times looks at the conflicted relationship GS has between its own prop trading and the interests of its clients: > click for ginormous table > Source: Clients Worried About Goldman’s Dueling Goals GRETCHEN MORGENSON and LOUISE NYT, May 18, 2010 http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/19/business/19client.html
David R. Kotok, Cumberland Advisors May 19, 2010 > Like oil and water, politics and markets do not mix well. And politics are driving worldwide markets. In the US the FINRA debate intensifies and the uncertainty rises. Financial institutions and individual investors are unsure of the rules that will be in effect when Congress is…Read More
NASDAQ Cumulative Volume Chart courtesy Fusion Analytics > The chart above represents the cumulative total of daily up volume plus down volume on the NASDAQ. The red and black lines are 10 and 40 day moving averages of the raw data. When the 10 day moving average is below the 40 day it typically suggests…Read More
The Housing “Recovery” Is Just Another Government Subsidy, Says Whalen
Yahoo Tech Ticker, May 18, 2010
Today, I am in Las Vegas for the SALT II conference: I am on a panel discussion about regulation, reform and bailouts with Austan Goolsbee, Advisor to President Obama, and Bill Thomas, Vice Chairman of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission. Should be fun . . . be sure to stop me and say hello if…Read More