Just as with the Gulf oil spill – where BP, government spokesmen and mainstream talking heads spewed happy talk about how “benign” the dispersants were and how all the oil had disappeared – there is now an avalanche of statements that the radiation is at “safe” doses for everyone outside of the immediate vicinity of Fukushima.
For example, Japanese government call-in advice lines are telling people to simply rinse off any produce covered with radioactive dust.
Ann Coulter claims that radiation is good for you
It is not very confidence-inspiring that:
EPA officials, however, refused to answer questions or make staff members available to explain the exact location and number of monitors, or the levels of radiation, if any, being recorded at existing monitors in California.
Or that the EPA has pulled 8 of its 18 radiation monitors in California, Oregon and Washington because (by implication) they are giving readings which seem too high.
What Levels of Radiation Are Being Released?
So what levels of radiation are being released at Fukushima?
New Scientist reports that the radioactive fallout from Japan is approaching Chernobyl levels:
Japan’s damaged nuclear plant in Fukushima has been emitting radioactive iodine and caesium at levels approaching those seen in the aftermath of the Chernobyl accident in 1986. Austrian researchers have used a worldwide network of radiation detectors – designed to spot clandestine nuclear bomb tests – to show that iodine-131 is being released at daily levels 73 per cent of those seen after the 1986 disaster. The daily amount of caesium-137 released from Fukushima Daiichi is around 60 per cent of the amount released from Chernobyl.
Tyler Durden points out that – when you consider the fact that the amount of Caesium-137 released at Fukushima in the first 3-4 days of the crisis amounted to 50% that released by Chernobyl over 10 days – the real run rate of the radiation released at Fukushima is now about 120-150% the figure released by the Chernobyl explosion.
This Could Continue for a While
Evidence for the fact that a quick fix is unlikely is widespread. For example, reactors 1, 2, 3 and 4 were all leaking steam yesterday.
There was some indication that reactors 5 and 6 are leaking as well. As Kyodo News reports:
The firm [Tokyo Electric Power Company] also said it found both iodine-131 and cesium-137 in a sample taken from near the drain outlets of the plant’s No. 5 and No. 6 reactors that stabilized Sunday in so-called ”cold shutdown.”
CNN notes today:
Authorities in Japan raised the prospect Friday of a likely breach in the all-important containment vessel of the No. 3 reactor at the stricken Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, a potentially ominous development in the race to prevent a large-scale release of radiation.
The New York Times reports:
A senior nuclear executive who insisted on anonymity but has broad contacts in Japan said that there was a long vertical crack running down the side of the reactor vessel itself. The crack runs down below the water level in the reactor and has been leaking fluids and gases, he said.***
“There is a definite, definite crack in the vessel — it’s up and down and it’s large,” he said. “The problem with cracks is they do not get smaller.”
The cores of reactors 1 and 3 appear to be leaking as well.
This is not to say that there will be a full meltdown which sends radioactive plumes high into the stratosphere. I am assuming that will not happen. But the release of radioactivity is severe and ongoing.
But Low Doses of Radiation Are Safe … Aren’t They?
While most would dismiss as crackpot ramblings Coulter’s claim that radiation is good for you, what about the pervasive claims that the amount of radiation which has been released is so low that it is “safe” for people outside of the immediate vicinity of Fukushima?
Physicians for Social Responsibility notes:
According to the National Academy of Sciences, there are no safe doses of radiation. Decades of research show clearly that any dose of radiation increases an individual’s risk for the development of cancer.
“There is no safe level of radionuclide exposure, whether from food, water or other sources. Period,” said Jeff Patterson, DO, immediate past president of Physicians for Social Responsibility. “Exposure to radionuclides, such as iodine-131 and cesium-137, increases the incidence of cancer. For this reason, every effort must be taken to minimize the radionuclide content in food and water.”
“Consuming food containing radionuclides is particularly dangerous. If an individual ingests or inhales a radioactive particle, it continues to irradiate the body as long as it remains radioactive and stays in the body,”said Alan H. Lockwood, MD, a member of the Board of Physicians for Social Responsibility.
Radiation can be concentrated many times in the food chain and any consumption adds to the cumulative risk of cancer and other diseases.
John LaForge notes:
The National Council on Radiation Protection says, “… every increment of radiation exposure produces an incremental increase in the risk of cancer.” The Environmental Protection Agency says, “… any exposure to radiation poses some risk, i.e. there is no level below which we can say an exposure poses no risk.” The Department of Energy says about “low levels of radiation” that “… the major effect is a very slight increase in cancer risk.” The Nuclear Regulatory Commission says, “any amount of radiation may pose some risk for causing cancer … any increase in dose, no matter how small, results in an incremental increase in risk.” The National Academy of Sciences, in its “Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation VII,” says, “… it is unlikely that a threshold exists for the induction of cancers ….”
Long story short, “One can no longer speak of a ‘safe’ dose level,” as Dr. Ian Fairlie and Dr. Marvin Resnikoff said in their report “No dose too low,” in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.
And Brian Moench, MD, writes:
Administration spokespeople continuously claim “no threat” from the radiation reaching the US from Japan, just as they did with oil hemorrhaging into the Gulf. Perhaps we should all whistle “Don’t worry, be happy” in unison. A thorough review of the science, however, begs a second opinion.
That the radiation is being released 5,000 miles away isn’t as comforting as it seems…. Every day, the jet stream carries pollution from Asian smoke stacks and dust from the Gobi Desert to our West Coast, contributing 10 to 60 percent of the total pollution breathed by Californians, depending on the time of year. Mercury is probably the second most toxic substance known after plutonium. Half the mercury in the atmosphere over the entire US originates in China. It, too, is 5,000 miles away. A week after a nuclear weapons test in China, iodine 131 could be detected in the thyroid glands of deer in Colorado, although it could not be detected in the air or in nearby vegetation.
The idea that a threshold exists or there is a safe level of radiation for human exposure began unraveling in the 1950s when research showed one pelvic x-ray in a pregnant woman could double the rate of childhood leukemia in an exposed baby. Furthermore, the risk was ten times higher if it occurred in the first three months of pregnancy than near the end. This became the stepping-stone to the understanding that the timing of exposure was even more critical than the dose. The earlier in embryonic development it occurred, the greater the risk.
A new medical concept has emerged, increasingly supported by the latest research, called “fetal origins of disease,” that centers on the evidence that a multitude of chronic diseases, including cancer, often have their origins in the first few weeks after conception by environmental insults disturbing normal embryonic development. It is now established medical advice that pregnant women should avoid any exposure to x-rays, medicines or chemicals when not absolutely necessary, no matter how small the dose, especially in the first three months.
“Epigenetics” is a term integral to fetal origins of disease, referring to chemical attachments to genes that turn them on or off inappropriately and have impacts functionally similar to broken genetic bonds. Epigenetic changes can be caused by unimaginably small doses – parts per trillion – be it chemicals, air pollution, cigarette smoke or radiation. Furthermore, these epigenetic changes can occur within minutes after exposure and may be passed on to subsequent generations.
The Endocrine Society, 14,000 researchers and medical specialists in more than 100 countries, warned that “even infinitesimally low levels of exposure to endocrine-disrupting chemicals, indeed, any level of exposure at all, may cause endocrine or reproductive abnormalities, particularly if exposure occurs during a critical developmental window. Surprisingly, low doses may even exert more potent effects than higher doses.” If hormone-mimicking chemicals at any level are not safe for a fetus, then the concept is likely to be equally true of the even more intensely toxic radioactive elements drifting over from Japan, some of which may also act as endocrine disruptors.
Many epidemiologic studies show that extremely low doses of radiation increase the incidence of childhood cancers, low birth-weight babies, premature births, infant mortality, birth defects and even diminished intelligence. Just two abdominal x-rays delivered to a male can slightly increase the chance of his future children developing leukemia. By damaging proteins anywhere in a living cell, radiation can accelerate the aging process and diminish the function of any organ. Cells can repair themselves, but the rapidly growing cells in a fetus may divide before repair can occur, negating the body’s defense mechanism and replicating the damage.
Comforting statements about the safety of low radiation are not even accurate for adults. Small increases in risk per individual have immense consequences in the aggregate. When low risk is accepted for billions of people, there will still be millions of victims. New research on risks of x-rays illustrate the point.
Radiation from CT coronary scans is considered low, but, statistically, it causes cancer in one of every 270 40-year-old women who receive the scan. Twenty year olds will have double that rate. Annually, 29,000 cancers are caused by the 70 million CT scans done in the US. Common, low-dose dental x-rays more than double the rate of thyroid cancer. Those exposed to repeated dental x-rays have an even higher risk of thyroid cancer.
Beginning with Madam Curie, the story of nuclear power is one where key players have consistently miscalculated or misrepresented the risks of radiation. The victims include many of those who worked on the original Manhattan Project, the 200,000 soldiers who were assigned to eye witness our nuclear tests, the residents of the Western US who absorbed the lion’s share of fallout from our nuclear testing in Nevada, the thousands of forgotten victims of Three Mile Island or the likely hundreds of thousands of casualties of Chernobyl. This could be the latest chapter in that long and tragic story when, once again, we were told not to worry.
Note: People who rationally discuss the hazards from nuclear accidents are dismissed as “anti-nuclear”. However, that is like saying that people who are against pilots drinking tequila during flights are anti-flying. As Bloomberg points out, the operator of the Fukushima reactors faked safety tests and results and cut every corner in the books for decades, just as BP cut every safety corner prior to the Gulf oil spill. Moreover, the Fukushima reactors were not designed to withstand an earthquake or a tsunami, and their peculiar design makes the spent fuel rods an even greater danger than the reactors themselves.
Demanding a safer design – e.g. thorium reactors – and ongoing maintenance and safety tests doesn’t mean one is anti-nuclear.
Alan Abelson in this weekend’s Barron’s: “THE BULLS SEEMINGLY HAVE DEVELOPED an immunity to bad news. We’re admittedly jealous, since we’d love to glom onto the potion that makes everything, no matter how dire, come up smelling like a rose. It isn’t that we’re oblivious to good news; frankly, we hunger for it. Thus, when…Read More
This is Matt’s SXSW 2011 talk:
Floyd Norris gives us the no nonsense take on Housing: Yes, Housing remains moribund; No, this is not getting better any time soon. The charts at right (click for larger version) should make that clear to anyone: “As can be seen in the accompanying chart, during the 12 months through February, about 46 homes were…Read More
March 24, 2011
Loose Monetary Policies and Emerging Markets
Bubbles in Emerging Markets
Snowbird, New York, Portland, and La Jolla
The central banks of the developed world are printing money and are engaged in a very-low-interest-rate regime. What does that mean for emerging markets? It is more than just a dilemma, it is a tri-lemma – they have problems not just coming and going but also sitting still! I am in Zurich tonight after a long day, with a 4:30 AM wake-up call to get back home, but deadlines are deadlines. So, to make this one easier on me as well as hopefully instructive for you, you will get chapter 15 of my new book, Endgame, in which coauthor Jonathan Tepper and I speculate about the future of emerging markets in general and investments in them in particular. We once again are on the New York Times best-seller list this week, by the way (thanks to many of you).
The reviews keep coming in. I have never met Anthony Harrington, but he is clearly a keen and astute analyst, since he has called this book a must-read. Seriously, he homes in on one aspect that I think is critical; and that is the issue of trade deficits and fiscal deficits and how they affect each other. You can read his work at http://www.qfinance.com/blogs/anthony-harrington/2011/03/23/mauldins-end-game-teaches-politicians-the-basics-but-are-they-listening-austerity-measures.
And this week, if you have not yet bought your copy, let me commend you to my friends at Laissez Faire Books. I have been buying books from them for nearly 30 years. They are the best source for Austrian economics and libertarian books, along with the usual offering of investment books current in the market. They have matched the Amazon price for Endgame; but if you are interested, move around their website and pick up a few other things along with my book. http://www.lfb.org/product_info.php?products_id=1014&PromoCode=L401M301
And now, let’s look at emerging markets.
Loose Monetary Policies and Emerging Markets
So far we have focused on the United States and other mature, developed economies that have far too much debt. With Japan, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Switzerland at close to zero percent interest rates, it seemed like a good idea to stimulate the economy. However, emerging markets that maintain pegged currencies or that shadow the dollar are essentially reduced to importing excessively loose monetary policies. Reserve growth across many emerging countries has been very strong over the last year. Emerging Asian countries account for almost 50 percent of global foreign exchange reserves. Huge Asian reserve growth since early last year is a result of mimicking loose monetary policies in the developed world to keep their currencies competitive. China has accumulated the most reserves of any emerging market country. This is directly related to its currency peg and its need to recycle the dollars it gets from its exports.
A result of Asian emerging markets’ importing loose monetary policy from developed markets is that domestic inflation rates are rising quickly, as policy rates remain too accommodative. Asian emerging market countries are facing a trilemma: They can fix any two of a pegged exchange rate, free flows of capital, or independence in monetary policy, but not all three. The end result is likely to be higher policy rates and currency appreciation. (See Figure 15.1.)
Bubbles in Emerging Markets
Many emerging markets will double or triple over the next few years. Emerging markets are extremely small as a percentage of total global market capitalization. When investors diversify away from developed markets, it will be like putting a fire hose through a straw. Liquidity from developed markets will overwhelm emerging markets. Part of this is from investors in the developed world wanting to go where the growth is, but part of it is a result of quantitative easing all over the world, especially in the United States. That is why you see emerging markets like Brazil taxing inbound capital flows in an effort to keep their own economies from developing a bubble. (See Figure 15.2.)
There are good reasons why the United States and the United Kingdom are among the highest capitalizations. In part, this is because a higher percentage of companies are publicly traded in the United States and the United Kingdom, whereas in other countries, many more are privately held, family-owned, or indeed government-run. Individually, almost all emerging markets are less than 0.5 percent of total world capitalization, as Figure 15.3 shows.
Category: Think Tank
Here’s the thing about unproven “technical” tools: They are dangerous to your wealth. Recall this article ‘Hindenburg Omen exactly 7 months ago on August 26 2010. If you shorted markets due to the Hindenburg Omen back on August 26 seven months ago, you have now lost about 25% of your money as of yesterday’s close…Read More
How cool is this? The Parrot AR.Drone Quadricopter: An iPhone controlled quadricopter with a camera in its nose!
“Parrots aren’t known for their flying ability. But the Parrot AR.Drone certainly is. It’s one of the most fantastically fun toys I’ve come across in years.
A camera in its nose can transmit images of your neighbor’s yard, or help you dogfight with other drones. It’s expensive, but—wow!—it’s worth every cent of the $299 price.”
That looks crazy cool!
The First Quadricopter Controlled by iPhone/iPod touch/iPad
Control with Your Apple Device
Thanks to its on-board Wi-Fi system, you can control the Parrot AR.Drone using an iPhone, iPod touch, or iPad.
The Parrot AR.Drone
The AR.Drone is the first quadricopter that can be controlled by an iPhone, iPod touch, or iPad.
High-technology Sensors Offer Simple Piloting
A mix of captors, wide-angle camera, high-speed camera and MEMS (micro electro mechanical systems), accelerometer, gyro sensors, and ultrasound sensor combine with a powerful on-board computer to make piloting the AR.Drone easy. Simply use your iPhone or iPod touch, and just tilt and touch to control the AR.Drone.
Connect and See
The Parrot AR.Drone generates its own Wi-Fi network to which you connect your iPod touch or iPhone to control. The front camera view is streamed to your piloting device display.
The AR.Drone autopilot allows easy takeoff and landing. After takeoff, autopilot stabilizes the AR.Drone at an 80-centimeter altitude. When you remove your finger from the iPhone/iPod touch, the autopilot function automatically puts the AR.Drone into stationary flight. Lost connection with the AR.Drone? Autopilot takes over again and stabilizes the device before attempting a soft and safe landing.
Indoor and Outdoor Hulls Included
The full hull shield protects the AR.Drone from impacts that occur during wild battles against enemies hidden in the rooms of the house. The streamlined colored hull is aerodynamic, allowing greater control outside.
High Durability and Easy Repair
AR.Drone is a quadricopter made of carbon fiber and high-resistance PA66 plastic. All parts can be changed for easy repair.
Free Piloting App on iTunes
Please download AR.Freeflight in the App Store to control the AR.Drone. iTunes account needed.
Augmented Reality Games
Not only see what the AR.Drone sees with the front-mounted camera, but enjoy a wide variety of games in augmented reality. AR.Games will be sold in the iTunes App Store. Choose from a selection of single-player and multiplayer games, using the AR.Drone’s camera and the augmented reality applications. Shoot enemies or other drones.
Videos after the jump.
Joe Nocera’s last column in today’s NYT (he moves to the OpEd pages) tells a simply ghastly tale of misplaced governmental priorities: In Prison for Taking a Liar Loan. It tells the horror show story of how the IRS came across one of the 15 million liar loans written during the credit bubble. An excerpt…Read More