UoM confidence surprises to upside

The 1st UoM confidence reading of the month was 74.2, 1.7 pts above expectations, up from 71.6 in Nov and is the best since June when it was at 76. Both Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook moved higher and the Current component in particular rose to the best since Jan ’08. Because the state of the labor market is such a large component of one’s consumer confidence, maybe the jobs picture, while not great, is not as soft as Friday’s Nov figure implied. One year inflation expectations ticked down .1% to 2.9% from last month’s highest # since May. With the average gallon of gasoline less than .03 from $3.00 according to AAA last night, we’ll see how much longer inflation expectations remain tame.

Category: MacroNotes

China in the news and will be focus over the weekend

The PBOC again raised reserve requirements by 50 bps to 18.5% after Nov bank loans rose by 564b yuan, 64b above expectations and both import and export growth were well above forecasts. This move comes before the all important CPI report tomorrow where an expected rise of 4.7% y/o/y would be the highest since Aug…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Flow of Funds Report Chart Porn

The Fed released its quarterly Flow of Funds (Z.1) report Thursday.  Although the data is always somewhat stale (Q3 was released today), I find the Flow of Funds an interesting and informative read (how sad is that?  Note to self:  Get a life.).   That said, here are some nuggets I think are of interest (all…Read More

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Federal Reserve

Live Charting ‘Hey Jude’

Lyrical Flowcharts: Make your own Lyrical Flowchart at http://lucidchart.com and tag us @lyricalflows. Those we like, we’ll make into a video. Hat tip information aesthetics

Category: Music, Weekend

Outsourced DayTrading

In today’s NYT comes this sign of speculative excess in China: Day Trading Still Alive, Outsourced to China: “By some industry estimates, as many as 10,000 people in China are doing speculative day trading of American stocks — mostly aggressive young men working the wee hours here, from 9:30 p.m. to 4 a.m., often trading…Read More

Category: Trading

Ratings Companies Own Downgrade

“The ratings provided little or no value.” -Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission Chairman Phil Angelides > Here’s a fascinating little tidbit: “Largely overshadowed in the Dodd-Frank overhaul, 18 of the 848 pages strike at defenses that have allowed Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings to defeat every ratings lawsuit they’ve faced. The bill says ratings…Read More

Category: Bailouts, Legal

Afternoon Reads

> • VOLCKER OUT AFTER 8 YEARS AS FEDERAL RESERVE CHIEF; REAGAN CHOOSES GREENSPAN (NYT June 1987) • The Colossus of Wall Street  (BusinessWeek) • To Have Is to Owe (Triple Canopy) • The Viral Me  (GQ) • The War on Cameras (reason) • Gorilla Glass, the Smartphone’s Unsung Hero  (Pogue) • The truth about…Read More

Category: Financial Press

Mathematical Doodling

Fantastic mathematical doodling:

Site is here:


Hat tip NY Mag

Category: Mathematics, Video

The Evolution of The Blogger

From Social Media Graphics: > click for ginormous graphic

Category: Digital Media, Humor, Weblogs


Macro Factors and their impact on Monetary Policy, the Economy, and Financial Markets MacroTides@macrotides1@gmail.com Investment letter – November 2010 > THE ‘GREENSPAN PUT’ In September 2007 we used the metaphor of a tsunami to describe the convulsion that had swept through the credit markets in August 2007. In just seven days, 90-day Treasury bill yields…Read More

Category: Think Tank