Bear vs Bull (1962)

We talked a bit about the magazine cover indicator Wednesday night. I don’t think Ken Heebner on the cover of Fortune is not a great example.

How is this June 1, 1962 Time Magazine issue?  Perhaps this is a more significant example of the Magazine cover indicator?


That cover, showing a Bear mauling a Bull, took place when stocks were getting whacked.

As you can see from the chart below, this obviously Bearish cover worked well as a contrary indicatorit was not a bad entry point to get long equities:


Dow Industrials 1962 – 1968
click for larger chart

Category: Contrary Indicators, Psychology

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Category: Data Analysis, Economy

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Category: Data Analysis, Real Estate

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Category: Commodities, Energy, Trading

KB Homes: U.S. Home Prices Will Drop 10% More

Eli Broad, founder of homebuilder KB Home

click for video




U.S. home prices likely will drop another 10 percent from their peak before the housing market begins to recover, said Eli Broad, founder of Los Angeles-based homebuilder KB Home. "Every housing market’s different, but you can expect housing prices to continue to decline in most markets for the next year or so,” Broad said in an interview from Los Angeles with Bloomberg Television.

Sales of previously owned homes in the U.S. fell 1 percent last month and the supply of unsold properties reached a record, the National Association of Realtors said last week, signaling a continuation of the 27-month housing slump. The median price of an existing home fell to $202,300 from $219,900 in April 2007. "I think we’ve got probably another 10 percent to go” from the price peak reached in 2006, Broad said today.

Broad said the U.S. economy is "in a recession no matter how you want to measure it,” and recommended that investors put their money in the energy industry, multinational companies with the largest stock-market capitalizations, and emerging economies such as Brazil, Russia, India and China. The return on U.S. stocks likely will "be in low single digits” this year, he said.

KB Home Founder Broad Says U.S. Home Prices Will Drop 10% More
Matt Miller and Daniel Taub
Bloomberg, May 28  2008

Category: Real Estate, Video

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Category: Data Analysis, Economy

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