Quote of the Day: “Beware of Conviction”

A good quote regarding all of those cocksure know-it-alls but get-it-all-wrong anyway on the tube:

"I continue to listen to and read a lot of convicted opinions — for instance, the market has bottomed, financials have bottomed, oil has topped, stocks are enormously undervalued against historic measures (like short- and long-term interest rates), etc., etc. Their mantras of "certainty" are almost laughable considering so many uncertain economic, credit and geopolitical factors…

I would put those convicted opinions in a locked closet away from children and "talking heads" (like myself) who sometimes act like children…Err on the side of conservatism and invest/trade light. Too many imponderables, from my perch."

- Doug Kass, THE EDGE (8/07/2008)

 

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Update: August 22, 2008 9:50am

 Here’s a May 2008 Barron’s interview with Doug regarding his investing history and track record (Barron’s pulls the info from Tremont Hedge Fund Research).

Download BarronsInterview.pdf

Category: Markets, Psychology, Trading

Quote of the Day: “Beware of Conviction”

Category: Markets, Psychology, Trading

A Bottom in Housing? You’ve Got to Be Kidding!

I have an interesting discussion on Housing later this week, but for now, let’s look at this Yahoo video n another bottom call in Housing.  (Note that the charts discussed are linked below)

Here are the relevant charts regarding Home Sale and Rental ratios, as well as Median Income and Home prices.

Charts:

Median New Home Prices vs Median Household Disposable Income
http://www.comstockfunds.com/files/NLPP00000/312.pdf

Home Price Appreciation vs CPI – Rent
http://www.comstockfunds.com/files/NLPP00000/313.pdf

   

Previously:
Revisiting Housing Seasonality & the Perennial Bottom Callers (July 1008)
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/07/revisiting-seas.html

Source:

A Bottom in Housing? You’ve Got to Be Kidding
 
Henry Blodget
Yahoo Tech Ticker Aug 13, 2008 07:30am EDT
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/47438/A-Bottom-in-Housing-You’ve-Got-to-Be-Kidding

Category: Real Estate, Video

A Bottom in Housing? You’ve Got to Be Kidding!

I have an interesting discussion on Housing later this week, but for now, let’s look at this Yahoo video n another bottom call in Housing.  (Note that the charts discussed are linked below)

Here are the relevant charts regarding Home Sale and Rental ratios, as well as Median Income and Home prices.

Charts:

Median New Home Prices vs Median Household Disposable Income
http://www.comstockfunds.com/files/NLPP00000/312.pdf

Home Price Appreciation vs CPI – Rent
http://www.comstockfunds.com/files/NLPP00000/313.pdf

   

Previously:
Revisiting Housing Seasonality & the Perennial Bottom Callers (July 1008)
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/07/revisiting-seas.html

Source:

A Bottom in Housing? You’ve Got to Be Kidding
 
Henry Blodget
Yahoo Tech Ticker Aug 13, 2008 07:30am EDT
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/47438/A-Bottom-in-Housing-You’ve-Got-to-Be-Kidding

Category: Real Estate, Video

His Name is Mudd

Category: Bailouts, Corporate Management, Credit, Legal, Real Estate, Valuation

Category: Bailouts, Credit, Taxes and Policy

Quell the Commentary!

> If only no one had mentioned Fannie or Freddie over the weekend . . . > After a Yahoo Tech Ticker appearance earlier this month (Battle Over the Bottom in Financials) I received one of my all time favorite pieces of email. It was so damned good I simply had to pass it along:…Read More

Category: Markets, Psychology

Going Down?

Category: Real Estate

Housing Starts

Category: Economy, Real Estate

Lessons for Battered Investors

Category: Investing, Markets, Psychology