S&P 500 vs. Volatility Index: Complacency or Capitulation?

A few people have asked why I am not more enthusiastic about any bounce off of these technical levels. The simple answer is that we are still working our way through economic, credit, fundamental earnings, and and valuation issues.

The bounce is from a technical perspective, and recognizes that nothing goes in any one direction for ever.

Consider the market from a psychological perspective: There is certainly concern and fear out there — down 500 points on record volume cannot easily be waved off. But there are lots of other measures that simply haven’t pinned the needle.

I need to see these measures go to eleven, to make me really bullish.

Mike Panzner adds: “While some are saying that yesterday’s price action
smacks of “capitulation,” the volatility index tells a slightly different story.
In fact, at 33.61, the CBOE OEX Volatility Index (VXO [or the old VIX]) has not
even reached the January or March highs of 39.02 and 37.17, respectively.”>

S&P 500 vs. Volatility Index: Complacency or Capitulation?

click for ginormous chart
vxospxchart courtesy of Michael Panzner, Financial Armageddon

Category: Contrary Indicators, Markets, Psychology, Technical Analysis, Trading

50% Retracement of 2002-2007 Rally

It has long been my perspective that following the great crash of 2000, we would be stuck in a secular bear market, with cyclical rallies and sell offs. The lows set in October 2002/March 2003, up until the October 2007 highs, was an example of a cyclical rally. The selloff from October 2007 has been…Read More

Category: Bailouts, Contrary Indicators, Markets, Psychology, Technical Analysis, Trading

New WSJ.com: Community, Comments, Color

I have yet to really play with the new WSJ.com, but it looks slicker than the old version. The most significant change — besides the colors and layout — is the community side of it. You can now post comments on every single WSJ published story. I am not sure how that will ramp up….Read More

Category: Financial Press, Web/Tech, Weblogs

Crude Oil = $92 $91

Category: Commodities, Energy, Technical Analysis

Whitney: Wall Street’s Future headaches

Weighing in on Bank of America’s latest deal and the future of Wall Street, with Meredith Whitney, Oppenheimer & Co.

click for video



Category: Corporate Management, Credit, Derivatives, Video

Bad Commentary, Poor Advice, Weak Analysis

Category: Financial Press, Investing, Psychology

Traffic Goes Kablooey!

Internet traffic has exploded, and I can only assume that its not the latest Maxim photos of Megan Fox. At 6pm today, I had blown through 100k page views — a first for the site — with a few hours still left in the day. (8pm = 127,026). And, its not just today’s selloff: We…Read More

Category: Contrary Indicators, Psychology, Weblogs

Dow Close: -504

Category: Investing, Markets, Short Selling, Trading

My Mea Culpa on Thain

Category: Bailouts, Corporate Management, Credit, M&A, Valuation

A Disastrous Rate Cut ?

Category: Bailouts, Federal Reserve, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Inflation