Overstated Job Growth, Understated Inflation

They Dow is down ~250, Nasdaq down almost ~100 as I type this.

As the excuses and mea culpas roll out over the next few weeks, pay close attention to the following nonsense:

Its not our fault; We relied on BLS for NFP data, and its apparent now it was wrong. The CPI data out of the government was also incorrect, that was where we were led astray.

What bullshit.

We have been pounding the table — here, in print, and on the tube — for several years. There is no excuse for ignoring the obviously flawed data series. You had to be living in a different world of to buy into that.

There was an alternative universe where the Job growth was robust , inflation benign, the Housing bust  irrelevant, and the credit contagion contained. This universe was populated with pollyannas, perma-bulls, overtly political economists, and Wall Street cheerleaders. 

In this alt. universe, Retail is fine, the economic boom was caused by the 2003 tax cuts (not Fed cuts), and the core rate of inflation was all that mattered.

This was Goldilock’s house — only today, she got her foreclosure notice . . .

Category: Economy, Inflation, Markets

Latest Lereah Book

We’ve had plenty of well deserved criticism for former NAR Chief Economist David Lereah. So you can imagine how much it tickled our funny bone to see, via Irvine Housing Blog, this updated new book from Lereah: Old versions: Latest Version: Source:  Irvine Housing Blog > That’s our Friday funny. Actually, here is the most…Read More

Category: Books, Economy, Real Estate

Merrill vs Bear: Two Contestants, No Winners

Category: Corporate Management, Credit, Derivatives

NFP = 18,000

Category: Economy, Employment, Federal Reserve, Inflation

NFP December 2007

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Employment

Per Capita Spending and Life Expectancy

Category: Data Analysis

Quote of the Day: How Banks Lose Money

Category: Corporate Management, Credit, Derivatives, Finance

2007 Volatility: Below Historical Average

Category: Markets, Technical Analysis, Trading

New Column up at TheStreet.com (01/03/08)

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Investing, Markets

How Far Might Housing Prices Fall?

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Real Estate