Me Media Madness!

This was a crazy weeks. A lot of stuff happened all at once. I ended up appearing everywhere, especially in print — Bloomberg, NYT, and a hat trick in Barrons.

Here’s some press for the past 24 hours:

Citigroup Cashiers Mr. `Large’ Before ’08 Equities in Dallas
Josh Fineman
Bloomberg, Aug. 8 2008

Shares Rally as Oil Continues to Fall
NYT, August 8, 2008

And the Barron’s (subscription only) one week hat trick:

Olympic Fog 
Barron’s, August 11, 2008

Thus, at the end of last month, it agreed to sell $30.6 billion in rather doggy paper for $6.7 billion, or not quite 22 cents on the dollar. However, Merrill is supplying 75% of the purchase price and the only recourse it gets is the dubious paper it’s selling. The estimable Barry Ritholtz figures that, all things considered, the actual sales price works out to around 5.5 cents on the dollar.

The Dow Posts Its Best Week Since April
Barron’s, August 11, 2008

Analyzing their financial peers may also require a thorough probing of the assumptions and valuations made by the analyst’s own firm, and "no one wants to admit that their own models or basic assumptions also may be flawed," says Barry Ritholtz, CEO and equity-research director at Fusion IQ.

Then there is the market — or is it human? — tendency to hope for the best. "Many traders would still rather fail conventionally" — in clinging to a loss suffered with the market — "than risk succeeding unconventionally," Ritholtz says, referring to the pervasive reluctance to stray from the pack to criticize or bet against a stock.

That still-optimistic bent may also explain the violent flip-flopping of indexes last week, itself a sign that buyers lack conviction. "The bigger fear out there still isn’t losing money, but missing a rally," he says. In fact, the stock market may not hit a true bottom "until all the bottom calls dry up."

In Deep Dark Woods, Bears on the Prowl
Jim McTague   
Barron’s, August 11, 2008

"The silver lining is that inflation likely peaked in the second quarter and now we will see a deflationary cycle," said Barry Ritholtz, director of equity research for Fusion IQ, a quant shop. Ritholtz says that investors should focus on export-based companies or anything else that will profit from a weaker dollar.

Note: As to the dollar, I called this a counter-trend rally, and said the greenback can run a while, but ultimately goes lower. Also, over the course of the weekend, I discussed infrastructure, defense, biotech and staples.  Regardless, Jim got the quote right, and I did say that.

Category: Media

Faber: Global Economy in Recession

Investor Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, talks with Bloomberg’s Kathleen Hays about the euro’s performance against the U.S. dollar, the commodities market and the global economy. The euro fell the most in almost eight years against the dollar as traders pared bets the European Central Bank will raise interest rates as the economy slows.

click for video


00:00 Euro versus dollar; "global recession"
01:54 U.S. economy, ECB rates; commodities market
04:14 Investment strategy: dollar, Japan
Running time 05:18

Faber Says Global Economy in Recession; `Long’ on Dollar: Video
Bloomberg, August 8, 2008 15:27 EDT

Category: Currency, Economy, Video

Fannie & Freddie & Peter Pan Paulson

Category: Bailouts, Corporate Management, Credit, Real Estate

Oil Donations to Prez Campaigns

Category: Energy, Politics

Crude Oil Breaks Below $115

Category: Commodities, Economy, Energy, Technical Analysis, Trading

Really Bad Call: SubPrime Doesn’t Matter, Buy Bear Stearns

Category: Really, really bad calls

Who Doesn’t Understand the Pending Home Sales Index?

Category: Data Analysis, Financial Press, Real Estate

Interview: Richard Syron, Freddie Mac chairman & CEO

Freddie Mac Fires Back, Pt. 1
Inside Freddie Mac, with Richard Syron, Freddie Mac chairman & CEO and CNBC’s Maria Bartiromo.

click for video


Part II:  Freddie Mac Fires Back, Pt. 2
click for video



Thanks, Dougie!

Category: Credit, Real Estate, Video

Freddie Mac Losses to Get Worse

"5.5 Billion in Capital Raise is just the beginning . . . "

Category: Credit, Real Estate, Video

Late Night Reading

Category: Financial Press