WTF Headline of the Day

as of 3:04pm

From the usually data (not spin) driven Bloomberg homepage:

Inflation Stays in Check

I don’t get that.

Here’s how I read this morning’s inflation data (as Crude Oil, COINCIDENTALLY, rallies to $89):

The September CPI rose 0.3% headline, and 0.2% core vs the consensus of 0.2% for both. That’s a huge upside surprise on the headline number.

Year over year, headline CPI rose 2.8%. Thats the highest level since August 2006. The core
rose 2.1% for the 2nd straight month Y/Y.

Owners equivalent rent (OER) rose 0.3% for the
first time since March. With foreclosures increasing and lending standards tightening,
more people will be renting, potentially pushing this number up further. (OER = 23.8% of CPI).

Food prices rose 0.5% and are now up 4.5% y/o/y.

Miller Tabak’s Peter Bookvaar points out that in response to the number, "the
implied inflation rate in the 10 year TIPS has ticked up to the highest since
July. Inflation pressures won’t go away."

I have nothing further to add . . .

Category: Data Analysis, Federal Reserve, Inflation, Markets

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Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Federal Reserve, Inflation

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Category: Consumer Spending, Technology

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Forex Keynote Speech (Las Vegas)

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Employment, Markets, Real Estate

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Category: Markets, Options, Trading

Repeat After Me: Spending Surveys Are Meaningless

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Repeat After Me: There is NO Inflation

Category: Commodities, Energy, Inflation

1987 Crash Revisited

Rob Fraim is a reader of mine who puts out his own
amusing comments each day via email. On the 17th anniversary of
the 1987 stock market crash, he put out his recollections from that
day, and we are republishing them today, the 20th anniversary of Black Monday.

I found them so interesting that I suggested Rob (who is
blogless) post them here. He gladly agreed. Without further adieu, here
is Rob’s version of 1987 Crash Revisited

October 19 – the day that each year gives old-timers in this business a renewed facial tic and post-trauma flashbacks.

What?” you say.  “You mean you were actually there, Grandpa?  You remember the Crash of ’87?

Yes, I was, and yes I do.  Confirming rumors that I am, in fact,
older than dirt I note that I was in this business in 1987 – and had
been for a few years prior (I started in 1983.)

I was having dinner last week with a friend who runs a hedge fund
(another graybeard, although he looks younger than me) and we ended up
talking about 1987.  He had a great story about the whole thing (which
I’ll let him tell you about someday if you ever get to have dinner with

So I thought I would take a moment to reflect on my own Crash
Experience – and perhaps some of you will share your October 19, 1987
story (provided you’re not a whippersnapper who would be relating what
was on freakin’ Sesame Street that day!  I really hate you guys.
You’re svelte and unwrinkled and smart and energetic and I’m just
liable to whup you if you’re not careful.)    Maybe we’ll even get a
recounting of the aforementioned dinner tale from last week.  So if you
feel like it, drop me a note with your recollections.  If I get enough
to make it worthwhile, perhaps I’ll compile them for sharing.)

Read More

Category: Investing, Markets, Psychology, Trading

The Bubble Man

Category: Digital Media, Federal Reserve, Inflation, Psychology