FOMC Dissents

I can always count on Merrill’s economic team, headed by David Rosenberg, for an interesting data tidbit
or other worthwhile factoid.

Today was no different. Looking at the likelihood of a dissent in todays FOMC vote, they noted: Consider this about FED dissents:

Since the start of Bernanke’s tenure, he has faced dissents at 53% of the FOMC meetings he has chaired. While this may seem like a lot, it is actually quite close to the 56% dissent ratio faced by former Chairman Greenspan in his first five years on the job. Indeed, dissents are normal (Chart 1).

There is one key difference however. Chairman Greenspan frequently faced dissents from Governors with 21 of the 35 dissenting votes, or 60%, during those five years coming from this group (Chart 2). Chairman Bernanke has not had a Governor vote against him yet indicating that he has a more secure voting “bloc” than Greenspan did when he first started. Only if we saw a defection of a Governor would we begin to worry that the dissents will begin to influence policy.

Good stuff . . .  charts are below in order of mention above.

Its worth noting that Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher wanted a rate hike, and the market liked the rest of the noise.

>

New Fed Chairs Face Frequent Dissents
New_fed_dissent_votes

Source: Federal Reserve, Merrill Lynch

Greenspan Govs led dissenting votes

Greenie_dissents

Source: Federal Reserve, Merrill Lynch


Source:
Dissenting opinion: no dissent more likely than three
Drew T. Matus
Merrill Lynch 05 August 2008
http://tinyurl.com/feddissents

Category: Data Analysis, Federal Reserve

No Change in Rates, Substantial Inflation Risk

Category: Economy, Federal Reserve, Inflation

Protest at the Fed

While we are sitting around waiting for the widely anticipated stand pat 2:15 FOMC Fed statement, here are some interesting photos of a protest at last months meeting:

Discount_capitol

Peso

Socialism_wall_street

Full set of photos here

Hat tip: Cunning Realist

~~~

Read More

Category: Bailouts, Federal Reserve, Psychology

‘The US banking system is sound…’

Category: Consumer Spending, Economy, Retail

Freddie’s Risk Officer: CEO Ignored Warning Signs

Category: Corporate Management, Credit

InTrade’s Strangely Misnamed Recession Bet

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Trading

I.O.U.S.A. Movie Trailer

Looks like my kind of flick . . .

Official site:  IOUSA the Movie

http://www.iousathemovie.com/

Category: Credit, Video

Turn of a Phrase: The Slow Motion Slow Down

Category: Financial Press, Psychology

Hedge Fund Winners and Losers

Category: Hedge Funds, Trading

Bear Trap, part II

Category: Corporate Management, Financial Press, Legal, M&A