Crazy Fannie/Freddie Traffic Spike!

"Dude, you owned this story all weekend."

So said one of the many comments we received over our weekend Freddie (FRE) and Fannie (FNM) coverage. And it shows in the Traffic logs. Typically, heading into the weekend, things begin to quiet down. Friday is softer than Monday – Thursday, and the weekends see traffic cut by more than half.

Not so this weekend. Friday saw a big spike up to ~65k, then Saturday and Sunday ran hot too, with 46k and 56+k respectively. 

The came today, and as of 5:05pm, traffic was already over 70k! That’s pretty big.

The reason I bring this up, is in the past, big traffic spikes have occurred around short term bottoms. Yes, we saw eventual lower lows, but as a trading indicator, its worth noting.

Now, perhaps the traffic is not the result of psychology, fear, and trader nervousness. Hell, the VIX is at the bottom of its trading range. So I am less sure if this is a case of the kind of panic that leads to traffic spikes that leads to a substantial trading rally — or evidence of the mostly mediocre job the mainstream media did covering this over the weekend. (Yes, there were exceptions).

It sure is worth thinking about.


30 Day Traffic, The Big Picture


Blog Traffic as a Contrary Market Indicator  (February 04, 2008)

Contrary Indicator: Page Views Skyrocket!  (March 18, 2008)

Traffic Indicates . . .  (June 21, 2008)

Traffic Peaked Again Near Short Term Bottom (July 18, 2008)

Category: Contrary Indicators, Psychology, Weblogs

Fannie versus Freddie

Category: Bailouts

NPR Radio on Fannie, Freddie

Category: Bailouts, Media, Real Estate

Recession Probability = 95%

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Employment

How Finance Works, by Jim Flora

Category: Bailouts, Federal Reserve

Weekend Bailouts and Subsequent Market Reactions

Category: Bailouts, Markets, Psychology, Taxes and Policy

Comparing Fannie to Bear

Interesting video discussion by John Authers of the FT:

click for video:

via FT, September 8 2008,

Category: Bailouts, Trading, Video

Futures Up Triple Digits on Bailout

Category: Bailouts, Markets, Trading

Fannie & Freddie Weekend Wrap Up/Linkfest

So much for a relaxing weekend! We spilled plenty of pixels on Fannie (FNM) & Freddie (FRE)this weekend, as did lots of other folks. What follows is all of the relevant commentary I could scratch together:

Here’s TBP recap:

Treasury Takeover of GSEs: 10 Key Points

Fannie & Freddie Bailout:  In terms of Conservatorship, Management, Shareholders,  Mortgages, Legislation, Foreign Holders,  Financial sector, Politics, Timing, & GSE Insolvency

Here Comes the Half Trillion Dollar Fannie/Freddie Bailout!

All of the Treasury, Federal Reserve and FDIC news releases:

Treasury Department

Treasury Department Reports (PDFs):


Federal Reserve

Chairman Bernanke

FDIC React to Takeover

Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac Shareholder Ownership, via MSN:

Federal National Mortgage Association: Ownership

Freddie Mac: Ownership   

Video Coverage:

Treasury News Conference:

Treasury Unveils Takeover of Freddie and Fannie – Part 1

Treasury Unveils Takeover of Freddie and Fannie – Part 2

Treasury Unveils Takeover of Freddie and Fannie – Part 3

John Authers, FT

GSE Bazooka Fired  Ticker Forum, Karl Denninger (Video) 


Wall Street Research

Bringing Out the “Bazooka”  David A. Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch (PDF)   

First thoughts on the market impact of the Treasury’s GSE plan, Goldman Sachs (PDF)

Paulson Begins Gradual Wind-Down of GSEs within Conservatorship,  Institutional Risk Analyst      

Pershing Square Capital Letter to Treasury Department Regarding Fannie and Freddie

What the Mainstream Media had to say:

Monday, September 8, 2008

Mounting Woes Left Officials With Little Room to Maneuver WSJ

Fannie, Freddie Credit-Default Swaps May Be Settled Bloomberg

U.S. To Take Over Mortgage Giants Fannie, Freddie NPR Audio

The Dilemma of Fannie and Freddie  NYT

In Crisis, Paulson’s Stunning Use of Federal Power  Washington Post

The How, Why and What Of Fannie-Freddie Plan  MORNING BRIEF


Read More

Category: Bailouts, Credit, Financial Press, Weblogs

Treasury Takeover of GSEs: 10 Key Points

Category: Bailouts, Credit, Real Estate, Taxes and Policy