Case Shiller Housing Composite: Worst since 1991

Pretty amazing: This data release (May 2007) marks the 18th consecutive decline in growth, dating back to December 2005.

As the chart below shows, annual returns of the Case Shiller Composite now shows continued negative annual returns — an annual decline rate of 3.4%. These place the national market for real estate and single family homes at levels not seen since
the summer of 1991. (The 20-City annual decline rate is 2.8%).

Excerpt:

“At a national level, declines in annual home price returns are showing no signs of a slowdown or turnaround,” says Robert J. Shiller, Chief Economist at MacroMarkets LLC. “Year-over-year price returns are continuing to either move deeper into negative territory or experience persistent diminishing returns. If there is any positive news in these numbers, it may be that in both May and April eight of the 20 markets showed positive monthly growth rates. This compares to only one or two of the 20 in the late winter and early spring. We need a few more months of data, however, to determine if this is the beginning of a national turnaround, since the national trend is still at a sharp deceleration.”

With Chicago now reporting negative annual returns, 15 of the 20 metro areas are now reporting negative annual price returns. In addition, 16 of the metro areas saw a decline in their annual growth rate compared to April’s data. Detroit continues to lead the metro areas in growth rate declines, down 11.1% from a year ago and has been in annual decline since May 2006 . . .

Pretty astonishing fall from the peak. And, based upon inventory levels and present sale rates, we are not remotely close to done.

Case Shiller Home Price Index
Case_shiller_housing_index_731

chart courtesy of Standard & Poors

Here is the break down via Tradition Financial Services, Inc. / TFS Derivatives Corp.

S&P/Case-Shiller
Index – May 2007

May
06

Apr
07

Apr
07R

May
07

Apr07
v May07

Apr07
v May07

May06
v May07

Bos

178.61

169.60

169.60

170.95

1.35

0.80%

-4.3%

Bos

Chi

166.61

165.87

165.87

165.68

(0.19)

-0.11%

-0.6%

Chi

Den

138.31

134.86

134.86

136.32

1.46

1.08%

-1.4%

Den

LV

234.39

226.65

226.65

224.79

(1.86)

-0.82%

-4.1%

LV

LA

272.12

263.36

263.36

263.19

(0.17)

-0.06%

-3.3%

LA

Mia

278.68

273.53

273.53

269.52

(4.01)

-1.47%

-3.3%

Mia

NY

215.57

211.65

211.89

210.69

(0.96)

-0.45%

-2.3%

NY

SD

249.15

232.64

232.64

231.80

(0.84)

-0.36%

-7.0%

SD

SF

218.37

211.47

211.47

210.89

(0.58)

-0.27%

-3.4%

SF

WDC

251.07

235.29

236.17

235.15

(1.02)

-0.43%

-6.3%

WDC

Comp

226.00

218.93

219.01

218.37

(0.64)

-0.29%

-3.4%

Comp

Source:
Late
Spring Numbers Bring Chilly Returns According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home
Price Indices

S&P, July 31, 9:00 AM EST
PDF
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/CSHomePrice_Release_May1235.pdf

Category: Data Analysis, Real Estate

Triggers & Tipping Points

Category: Economy, Investing, Markets, Psychology, War/Defense

Teeth Clenched, While Buttocks Remained Firm

Category: Financial Press

Credit-Market Tremors

Category: Credit, Derivatives, Finance, M&A, Markets

Media Appearance: CNBC’s Morning Call (07/30/07)

Category: Media

Is the Bull Market Over, or Are Stocks Cheap?

Category: Financial Press, Investing, Media, Psychology, Technical Analysis, Trading, Valuation

Linkfest Week-in-Preview (whackage edition)

Category: Financial Press

Markets See Rising Volume and Volatility

Category: Investing, Markets, Psychology, Technical Analysis, Trading

Post Whackage Linkfest

Category: Financial Press

The American Flu

Category: Economy, Markets, Psychology, Trading