Quote of the Day: Paul Desmond on Bear Markets

Your mileage may vary:
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"In the average bear market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen 30% and sometimes much, much more. The Dow decline of 2000 through 2003 involved a loss of 55%, the bear of ’73-’74 caused a 50% loss and the 1929 market wiped out a full 85% of the Dow’s value."

"We think we’re still quite a ways from a bottom. Over the next year, the Dow could fall 30% to 50% from its October ’07 top. The market could enjoy a few short-lived rallies during that span, like the one we experienced from March through May. But each rally is apt to result in a lower high and a lower low in the market."

-Paul Desmond, Lowry Research, quoted in Barrron’s

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Previously:
Q&A: Paul Desmond of Lowry’s Reports  (February 2006) 
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2006/02/qa_paul_desmond.html

Part II — Q&A: Paul Desmond of Lowry’s Reports  (February 2006) 
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2006/02/part_ii_qa_paul.html

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Category: Markets, Trading

No Fear

Category: Financial Press, Markets, Psychology

Louise Yamada: Dow 10,000, SPX 1,175, Nasdaq 2,000

Discussing
where the market goes next, with Louise Yamada, managing director of Louise
Yamada Technical Research Advisors:

click for Video
Yamada

 

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Category: Technical Analysis, Video

Fun With PhotoShop: Financial Experts Reassure Nervous Investors

Category: Psychology

Read It Here First: VIX Says No Panic — Yet

Category: Contrary Indicators, Financial Press, Psychology, Technical Analysis

Reserves and Off Balance Sheet Securities Lending

Category: Credit, Federal Reserve

Consumer Sentiment Drops to 28 Year Low

Category: Consumer Spending, Inflation, Psychology

How I Spent My Stimulus Dot Com

Category: Economy, Taxes and Policy

The IRS & Inflation Angst

Category: Commodities, Economy, Inflation, Markets, Psychology

Bill Gross on Inflation & Recession

The Fed is walking a tightrope between inflation and a recession, hoping to find its way to neutral. Bill Gross, of PIMCO, shares their insight.

click for video
Bill_gross_june_08

Gross:

"There’s a lot of stress in the
financial markets. Let’s face it, this economy, the US economy and
even the global economy is delevering, and when an economy delevers there are
substantial problems and substantial risks.

"We’ve seen a lot of that. We’ve
seen writeoffs in the hundreds of billions of dollars with more to come. But
yeah, there’s a lot of tenuous action in the financial markets these days and I
expect more of it."

Source:
Gross: Fed Will Hold Steady for Rest of Year
CNBC.com | 25 Jun 2008 | 03:20 PM ET
http://www.cnbc.com/id/25372572/site/14081545

Category: Economy, Federal Reserve, Inflation, Video