I’m mostly out of pocket today (holidays and all that), but a quick look at the papers reveals that the US is still on target for a decaying economy and eventual hard landing:
• Slowing Is Seen in Housing Prices in Hot Markets
sigh . . . old news
• Bankruptcy Filings Soar As Tougher Law Nears http://online.wsj.com/article/SB112839161016359261.html
This one is going to be nasty
• Big S.U.V.’s Lag in Sales, Hindered by Gas Cost http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/04/automobiles/04auto.html
In September, industrywide sales of large S.U.V.’s were down 43 percent from a year earlier.
(See also: Sales of SUVs Fall Sharply
• Oil Producers Gain Global Clout From Big Windfall http://online.wsj.com/article/SB112838919128959188.html
There’s a security issue, here, as well as an economic one.
• Home Builders’ Stock Sales: Diversifying or Bailing Out? http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/04/business/04builders.html
A friend observes: Don’t you know why the bigwigs are blowing out in size? Simple: Because they think the stock is gonna’ trade higher.
I have a few words here:
• If housing slumps, how safe are you?
Housing now infects everything
Lastly, PIMco’s Bill Gross opines that "If real housing prices decline in the U.S. in 2006 or 2007, a recession is nearly inevitable."
I am all too well aware of my own biases and selective perception; As of now, this remains a minority viewpoint. By the time it becomes the dominant meme, I will (hopefully) be looking to go long . . .
Have an informed, happy and healthy New Year!