Zillow Q2 RE Update


map courtesy of Zillow Real Estate Market Reports 


Check out that map above; its from RE website Zillow.com. I haven’t mentioned them in a while, and since we last looked at them their site really seems to have gotten built out nicely. I am going to include them, as well as RealtyTrac, in my missives more frequently. I am very much interested in finding alternative to the shill site and data assembled — and dissembled — by the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

Here are the details from Zillow’s most recent discussion on RE transactions. Suffice it to say the Housing backdrop is, to quote Merrill Lynch Economist David Rosenberg, decisively negative:

• 24% of Homes sold in the past year were sold at a loss; 

• 29% of Homes purchased in the past five years are “upside down” — i.e., have negative net equity;

• Median home values are down a record 10% over the past year; this is the largest year-over-year decline since 1996.

• Foreclosed homes account for 50% of all home sales in some markets;

• 90% of US Homes had positive annualized appreciation over the past five years;

• Home values are now deflating in 85% of the country; 

• Q2 is the sixth consecutive quarter of home value declines;

• Almost 15% of housing sales are now foreclosed transactions;

• Over the past 5 and 10 years, the nation has shown positive rates of appreciation of 4.4% and 6.5% respectively.

Pretty astounding data points.

Here’s your Ubiq-cerpt:™

The increasing rates of negative equity coupled with rising rates of foreclosures continue to have an impact on the macro real estate market. To help monitor these effects, Zillow has added new measures to its reports under the label Distress Signals, which tracks, by quarter, the percentage of homes sold for a loss and the percentage of homes sold in foreclosure, dating back to 2003. Nationwide, nearly one in four (23.7%) homes sold during the past year sold for a loss while nearly 15 percent of sales were foreclosures(5). In parts of California, more than 60 percent of homes sold in the past year were for a loss while homes sold in foreclosure exceeded 50 percent. In New York- Northern New Jersey-Long Island MSA, which has the lowest rates of foreclosure among the markets monitored by Zillow, the percentage of homes sold for a loss since the second quarter 2007 is 8.8 percent and the percent of homes that sold in foreclosure is 3 percent.

In many markets, the rate of these Distress Signals is two to three times what was reported just a year ago. For example, 32.7 percent of homes sold in the second quarter were sold for a loss and 18.6 percent were foreclosure sales compared to the year-ago quarter when the rates were 12.2 percent and 7 percent respectively. In the San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont MSA, for example, nearly half (48%) of all homes sold in the second quarter recorded a loss while 34.3 percent were foreclosed; however, just a year ago, the rates were 14.9 percent and 10.7 percent respectively.

One last data point worth considering: Most homeowners live in a town not unlike Lake Wobegon, where everybody is above average, according to Zillow.  A recent Homeowner Confidence Survey shows "62% of homeowners
think their home value increased or stayed the same in the past year;
75% expect their home value to increase or stay the same in the next
six months." Based on the Q2 Real Estate Market Reports, 77% of homes actually declined in value over the past year.

Luckily, its always some other guy’s house, and not yours . . .


U.S. Home Values Drop Nearly 10% in Q2 Leaving Almost One-Third of Homeowners Who Bought in the Past Five Years Underwater on Their Mortgages
Zillow Real Estate Market Reports, August 12 2008

Zillow Real Estate Market Reports
Second Quarter: April-June 2008

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