Will the Fed Hike Anytime Soon?

Let’s have a quick Fed recap:

-Fed Funds Futures are now pricing in a 100% chance that the Fed raises rates by a total of
50 bps by the October meeting.

-Futures place a 24% chance of a 75bps increase by October.

-Futures By the January 2009 meeting, we have a 98% chance that Fed Funds rate will be raised by a total of
100 bps to 3%.

Is the Fed likely to be raising rates in this environment? Will we see a new tightening  cycle? Or, is the Fed merely jawboning in response to a more Hawkish ECB?


What say ye?


Category: Federal Reserve, Inflation

Roach: The New Stagflation

Category: Economy, Inflation

Word of the Day: Freeconomics

Category: Economy

Updating Lehman Sell Call

Category: Corporate Management, Credit, Earnings, Short Selling, Valuation

Squawk on the Street Appearance (6/12/08)

Here’s today’s earlier CNBC appearance on Market Pulse Check:

click for video

I like David Katz of Matrix Asset Advisors value approach, but we (obviously) have some sector disagreements — that’s what makes a market!


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Airtime: Thurs. Jun. 12 2008 | :43:0 08 ET

A look at where this market is headed, with David Katz, Matrix Asset Advisors and Barry Ritholtz, Fusion IQ

Category: Media, Video

Media Appearance: CNBC’s Squawk on the Street (6/12/08)

Category: Media

Unemployment Reporting: A Modest Proposal (U3 + U6)

Earlier this week, I received an email from the Real Estate editor of an (unnamed) publication. They wrote: “Just wanted to point out something I read in a Wall St. Journal article that made me think of you immediately. (Home Gauge Climbs Amid Bargains) “April pending home sales—meaning signed sales contracts—rose 6.3% from March to…Read More

Category: Data Analysis, Employment, Taxes and Policy

Future of Financials

As investment banks look to raise new capital and calm the turbulent waves they’ve been riding, the recovery is far from soon, says Meredith Whitney, executive direct of equity research at Oppenheimer & Co.

Click for video

via CNBC

Category: Credit, Derivatives, Video

Fast Eddie Lampert Bets on Housing, Mortgages

Category: Consumer Spending, Real Estate, Trading

Martin Feldstein: U.S. Slipping Into Recession

Category: Economy