This morning, I am on CNBC’s Squawk on the Street, at 9:30 – 9:40am for the opening bell.
The last time I was on with Mark and the lovely Erin was Jan 10 for their "Top Dog" segment — I was the top forecaster in the WSJ for 2007 (you can see the Video of that appearance is here, where I discuss why these contests are meaningless).
My views remain the same as that January 10th show: At the time, I said we thought the first half of the year would be choppy with a negative bias, and its been pretty ugly since. (We had a good trading call on Morning Call Jan 23, but it was just a trade).
Also on January 10th, I mentioned Agriculture, Energy, and Consumer Staples as safe havens. I also said more weakness was in store for the US dollar, and that would be good for Oil and Gold prices, as well as mining stocks (we still like ‘em).
I also said stay away from Tech and Financials, and I would reiterate that view today. We have been short AIG and short FNM for some time now, and they look like there is more pain to come.
All of these calls seem to be working in our favor at the moment.
So to reiterate, we remain cautious on US Equities, downright Bearish on overseas bourses, and believe things are likely to get even uglier before this is over. However, we could have a negative sentiment rally AGAIN — like the Jan 23 call. But again, that’s just a trade.
A few things to watch: Precious Metals remain our favorite sectors . . . Silver and Nat Gas are interesting also.
And, the January lows become crucial.
UPDATE: March, 5, 2008 2:14pm
click for video
As we noted over the weekend (Where Foreclosures > # of Homes Sold), Floyd Norris Off the Charts column covered the fascinating question of where in the country Foreclosures are actually exceeding Home Sales
A Dysfunctional Credit Market
NYT, March 3, 2008, 2:29 pm