Restating Earnings

Amusing take via Scott Adams:

Restate_1

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Source:  Dilbert.com

Category: Earnings

Technical Review – DOW JONES TRANSPORTATION INDEX

Category: Economy, Markets, RR&A, Technical Analysis

ATA tonnage index for October

Category: Economy

Favorite Holiday CDs

Category: Music, Retail

NAR’s Existing Home Sales & Prices

Category: Data Analysis, Real Estate

More Bad Data from the NRF?

I’m kinda dumfounded to see this issue come up time and again, but — there they go again: The National Retail Federation is once again putting out data which has gotten misinterpreted by most of the MSM: “Retailers kicked off the holiday selling season in style as shoppers across the country set their alarms for…Read More

Category: Consumer Spending, Data Analysis, Financial Press, Retail

Have we already enjoyed the Year End Rally?

Category: Currency, Investing, Markets, Psychology

Amazon.com Gift Certificate

Category: Retail

Massive Retail Roundup

Category: Consumer Spending, Economy, Financial Press, Retail

Recession: The Stage Is Set

Fascinating interview With Richard Arvedlund, Founder, Cypress Capital Management, who is not particularly optimistic on the economy going forward:


WE CAN ALWAYS COUNT ON RICHARD ARVEDLUND to take a different tack. Independent and bold calls on the economy come easy to this longtime money manager, who’s seen it all in his 30-plus-year career. But his balanced investment approach, with a focus on high-yielding, big-cap stocks combined with some bets on bonds, helps his clients preserve their capital as much as build it. The founder of Wilmington, Del.-based Cypress Capital Management, which has $450 million in assets and is now a unit of WSFS Financial, is at his best in troubled times. Trouble, the way he sees it, is straight ahead.

Barron’s: It took a year, but the calls you made when we last spoke are looking pretty good now.

Arvedlund: Well, until midyear the economy was running much stronger than I had thought it would. However, a GDP [growth domestic product] slowdown has clearly begun. The GDP growth rate dropped to 1.6% in the third quarter from 2.6% in the prior quarter and 5.6% in the first quarter. We have not seen GDP growth below 2% for four or five years. We now have preconditions in place for a recession.

Preconditions?

The preconditions would be the following: Whenever housing starts and permits drop by the rates of decline that have been exhibited — 10% to 20% — it has always preceded a recession. What is remarkably different in housing than just about any other sector of the economy is that whenever housing cycles turn down, and that’s happened twice in the last 30 years, once in the late ‘Seventies and once in the late ‘Eighties, the downturn tends to last much longer than people dream. The average cycle is three to four years.

Continue reading "Recession: The Stage Is Set"

Source:
Recession: The Stage Is Set
Interview With Richard Arvedlund, Founder, Cypress Capital Management
SANDRA WARD
Barron’s, Monday, November 13, 2006
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB116320501633920397.html

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Category: Earnings, Economy, Investing, Markets