Punditocracy

Via Doug Kass, comes this list of bad dope by the punditocracy, including analysts, strategists, and T-heads. These are a cautionary warnings not to blindly follow the cliches and heuristics so popular on Wall Street:

• Home prices will never fall (said repeatedly two years ago). Look out above, home prices are falling.

• Don’t fight the Fed (said repeatedly over the last several decades). Sometimes, like in the last nine months, it does pay to fight the Fed.

• The cash on the sidelines will provide fuel to a new bull market leg (always said). There is always tons of cash on the sidelines.

• Citigroup, at $53/share, is inexpensive at only 12x earnings (said last year repeatedly). Last sale? $26. Res ipsa loquitur.

• Bank stocks and government-sponsored agency stocks have strong dividend support (said last year repeatedly). Bank dividends have been slashed throughout the year. (Fannie Mae  just cut its dividend.)

• The housing and credit crises are over (said frequently recently). The housing depression and the seized up credit markets remain problematic.

• As night follows day, the financial writedowns will become financial writeups over the course of time (said will regularity recently).

• Buy stocks in the long run (always said). Stock markets have historically gone through decade-long periods with no price appreciation.

What have you been hearing lately that sounds good, but is not quite right?

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Source:
The Media’s Muddled Message
Doug Kass
TheStreet.com, 05/06/08 – 11:59 AM EDT     http://www.thestreet.com/_rms/s/kass-the-medias-muddled-message/newsanalysis/investing/10415304.html

Category: Financial Press, Psychology

Ron Stenger: Home Builder, Real Estate Sales, Class Act

Category: Real Estate

Spike in Foreclosures Goes Beyond Subprime

Category: Credit, Real Estate

Dow Chemical CEO: US Underestimating Inflation

On Wednesday, Dow Chemical Chief Executive Andrew Liveris made a high-profile announcement that Dow would
increase its prices by as much as 20%, starting June 1. Dow, the top
U.S. chemical company, said the plan was necessary to offset the impact
of rising costs for energy and related raw materials. Over the past
year, Dow has already increased its price by about 12%, but
those price changes have been phased in gradually rather than
implemented all at once.

In the interview, Liveris said he thinks the U.S. is underestimating
the level of inflation in the economy and he expects the rise in energy
costs is beginning to destroy demand. Liveris expects the price increases his company made will eventually be passed on to the consumer:

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Click for video
Liveris

Andrew Liveris on CNBC

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Excerpt:

"I do think we’ve hit a raw nerve," Liveris said in an interview on
CNBC’s "Squawk Box." "I do think, out there in the world that we all
are living in, I think the consumer is screaming, and I think it’s the
topic du jour, and every company is in a different part of the value
chain."

"We’re in a part of the economy that is very elastic," he said. "So unlike electricity, or unlike transportation, which up until now has been relatively inelastic, we’re getting demand-destroyed."

Liveris estimates Dow uses about one percent of the U.S.’s electricity to make its products, which become components of other consumers goods, and the equivalent of about one million barrels of oil a day.

"We’ve done everything at Dow to be cost-efficient, energy-efficient," he continued. "We’ve diversified our mix. We’ve gone overseas for low-cost joint ventures. I think everyone has to bear some of this out-of-control energy policy."

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Source:
Dow Chemical CEO Says US Underestimating Inflation
CNBC.com | 30 May 2008 | 08:14 AM ET
http://www.cnbc.com/id/24888493

Category: Economy, Inflation, Video

Weezer’s Ode to You Tube

The official video for "Pork and Beans" from Weezer stars quite a few familiar YouTube faces.

New Weezer disc Red Album" out Monday, June 3rd, 2008

Category: Digital Media, Music, Video, Web/Tech

Mortgage Delinquencies Accelerating

Category: Credit, Data Analysis, Real Estate

Understanding Contrary Indicators

Category: Contrary Indicators, Economy, Markets, Psychology

Feldstein Says U.S. Economic Indicators ‘Pointing Down’

Martin Feldstein, an economics professor at Harvard University and president of the National Bureau of Economic Research, talks with about U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product, the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy and potential legislation to help homeowners avoid foreclosures.

click for video

Feldstein

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Source:

Feldstein Says U.S. Economic Indicators `Pointing Down’
Bloomberg, May 29 2008
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a2M56v3ltLgE

Category: Economy, Video

Friday Night Jazz: Chet Baker II

I was searching out some of my favorite Jazz artists on YouTube, when I randomly stumbled across this video of Chet Baker. For those of you unfamiliar with Baker, he was a terrific Trumpet player who was later "discovered" as a wistful blues singer, specializing in ballads and love songs.

Chet Baker’s vocal style is unmistakably unique — my favorite
description of his his voice is "at times, it seems like he’s
hanging onto the melody by his fingernails."
He seems at times half a tone off where you might expect him to be.

There is a lovely
melancholy, a gentle beauty, to the way he wraps his voice around a
song. The soft, simple sentiment embodied in his lyrical approach to ballads
can turn any song into a brooding lament.

There’s quite a few other videos at  ChetBaker.net . . .

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Either of these two CDs are good places to start exploring Baker’s works:

My Funny Valentine
Funny_valentine_

"His vocals were absolutely distinctive, sung in a high-pitched, even
fragile voice seemingly drained of emotion and yet possessing an
inherent charm, a detachment that might be both the antithesis of style
and its definition, whether it’s heard as sensitivity or indifference.
The singing is a double of his trumpet playing here, spare and barely
present but achieving much through nuance and suggestion. Pianist Russ
Freeman is an almost constant partner, supplying deft chords and
harmonic daring, amplifying Baker’s ideas. Their empathy is especially
evident in the beautiful instrumental "Moon Love," but it’s just as
significant on signature Baker songs such as "My Funny Valentine,"
"Let’s Get Lost," and "Like Someone in Love." 
–Stuart Broomer

 

The Best of Chet Baker Sings
Best_of_chet_baker_sings

New videos after the jump

Read More

Category: Friday Night Jazz, Music

Technically, Not a Recession

Category: Economy