Barron’s Michael Kahn looks at 2 periods of Dow Charts, and finds them surprisingly similar:
Kahn notes that the sizes of the 1998 decline and the 1998-1999 rally were twice as big as their current counterparts, but the structure of the action is very similar.
I continue to look at 1973 as my best historical analogy: After the
1966 peak, we had a major selloff, a rally towards new highs, and then
a 30% correction.
Kahn reaches this conclusion: If this model holds for 2007, then the market is in for a very choppy few months followed by the return of the bear . . .
History Paints a Somber Picture
Barron’s MARCH 7, 2007
We sold our house last year — priced it reasonably, and at our first open house (Thanksgiving weekend!), got a reasonable bid. We ended up selling the house to that couple.
Whenever you hear talk of a Real Estate bubble, remember that it matters much less if you own (versus rent). In effect, we rolled out of one over-priced property and into the next over-priced property. When you are a homeowner, actual prices matter less than the spread between properties.
We closed yesterday.
In the process, we dealt with a lot of different agents on our buy and the sell. Some were terrific (who we would not hesitate to recommend and/or use again), a few were jackals, and one or two were deeply disturbed psychopaths who were obviously off their meds, likely violating a condition of their parole.
Along the way, we developed somes Do’s and Don’ts. (I’m sure readers have their own suggestions; use comments and let fly!)
This is a free lesson for the smarter, blog reading agents out there. Its a tough residential housing market, and if you want to earn your living selling real estate, pay attention and heed this advice:
1. Don’t waste our time.
I know some people do not know what they want, and you should feel free to schlep those poor bastards all over creation, burning valuable weekend time in the process.
However, when someone
gives you a very specific list of attributes and a broad price range, don’t drag
them around town(s) showing them everything but.
This is rule #1 for a reason: If you waste my time, I won’t do business with you PERIOD. If I tell you I DO NOT want a house with X and Y characteristics, and you drag me to 3 X & Y houses in a row, you are toast. Next agent, please.
2. Don’t lie to us
In nearly every real estate transaction, the truth will eventually reveal itself. If a prior deal fell thru due to an engineer’s report, I will find that out. If the prior owner paid 1/10 of the selling price 25 years ago, that will be discovered also (not that it matters).
Some of the lies were so transparent as to be laughable. Others were more skillfully concealed. If I ask you a direct question, and you lie directly back, and I discover this lie via an expensive engineer’s report (which would have been unneccessary had you told the truth when asked), I will present the bill to you — and your corporate HQ. (Then collect in small claims court on a theory of fraudulent misrepresentation).
Stop bullshitting, start adding value, and you might get a sales commission out of it.
3. Don’t tell us what is right before our eyes.
This is one of those nervous R/E habits: chattering on and on about the obvious. If you want to point out small details we might miss — for example, the kitchen drawers pull out all-the-way, or there is a built-in water filter in the kitchen sink, that’s fine. Even telling me the floors under the wall to wall are all hardwood adds something.
But seriously, I have two good eyes and so does my wife. I can see that THIS IS A BATHROOM; I can tell that THIS IS A WALK IN CLOSET. We actually had one agent solemnly intone: THIS IS THE KITCHEN. Really, how can you tell? Were the fridge, stove and dishwasher clues?
Its not helpful and is actually very annoying. STF up occasionally.
Category: Real Estate