ADP says private NFP increased 189,000.
"Even in manufacturing, construction, and financial services, sectors
where employment has been under downward pressure, there are signs of
These number include a "baffling improvement in industries tied to housing and mortgage lending" (WSJ)
I’ll spend more time on this later, as I am now off to BloombergTV . . .
UPDATE: December 5, 2007 2:30pm
Peter Boockvar points out that:
"The Nov ADP private sector job gain of 189k was the strongest reading of the
year and 46k more than the 2nd best reading.
In Nov ’06 it rose 258k, also the
strongest # of 2006, by 63k and in Nov ’05 it rose 301k, the highest in the
history of this data, 60k above the 2nd highest reading in 2005.
retrospect will we know if ADP had difficulty in their seasonal adjustments for
November for the past 3 years ahead of the holiday season so it does make the
Govt Payroll data on Friday still always difficult to predict.
In other words, don’t bet the farm on this data point . . . >
Analysis of November’s Report
Wednesday, December 5, 2007, 8:15 am EST
I was starting to put together this year’s Different Kind of Top 10 Music List (prior versions here: 2006, 2005 and 2004), when I realized I hadn’t written up one of my favorite discs this year: Country Ghetto by JJ Grey & Mofro.
I was driving home one night.,. when I hear this sound come oozing out of my car speakers: A funky, steamy, swamp rock blues number, with a long intro that finally came to a great groove: (slide over here and click Turpentine)
On the strength of that song, I ordered the disc, and I was not disappointed. The music is a great cross-breeding experiment across genres: Start with swamp rock, add some smoldering blues, slip in vintage soul, and finally, some gospel-fried funk.
Songwriting influences are apparent: Muddy Waters, John Lee Hooker,
Jerry Reed, Bill Withers, Otis Redding, Dr. John, Sly
& The Family Stone, Van Morrison, Howlin’ Wolf, George Jones, and James Brown.
"a down-and-dirty delight, and a fine addition to the swamp rock canon" -allmusic.com
"intriguing and fortuitous… Grey’s a songwriter with a sharp wit and a knack for skewering the hypocrites, jive politicians and carpetbaggers who litter the landscape. The MOFRO vibe travels freely among swamp funk, blues, rock and soul, and does so with a certain down-and-dirty swagger that’s as real as it is appealing." -Billboard
"A Southern-fried Sly and the Family Stone." -Don McLees
Videos after the jump.
(Um, might someone from Madison House Management consider releasing some higher quality videos to YouTube? Most of these are pretty medicore sound quality . . . )
Forget forecasting: You can’t even begin to think about the Future if you don’t understand the Present.
Case in point: Holiday Retail sales.
You may have overlooked the Black Friday weekend numbers, as the headline emphasis was on well, how strong they were relative to expectations. On that Friday, we saw an 8.5% gain thanks to huge discounting and door-buster giveaways.
The thinking seemed to be "Sure, we lose money on each sale, but we make it up in volume!"
Amazingly, the cheerleading in the space seems to be abating, as the MSM is now clued into the problem — and reporting it freely. The remarkably sanguinity we have seen over the years is no more.
courtesy of NYT
Consider the following articles, after the jump, on Consumer spending, sentiment, and retail sales :
Tonite is my debut on Fast Money — a fast "Chartology" segment, from 5:30pm to 5:40pm or so, on CNBC. The show is on at 5pm and again at 8 pm.
We will be discussing the SPX, State Street bank (STT) and Stanley (SXE)
See discussion after the jump . . .
Should be fun!
UPDATE: December 4, 2007 7:36am
The Chartology segment is posted at CNBC
Not how much macro/fundie info I slipped in.