The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland maintains an implied probability of FOMC meeting outcomes on thier site. This month shows a very high probability — about
97 98.5% — of no change in the Fed Funds rate.
Here’s the chart for the FOMC May meeting:
click for larger chart
The market is now pricing in less than a 5% chance of a cut at the June 28 FOMC meet and greet; August 7th we are looking at less than 20% chance of a cut.
When we look into the Fall, things begion to change: The September 18 meeting is between a 40% – 50% chance of a rate cut.
From the Cleveland fed site:
Options on federal funds futures can be
analyzed to extract public expectations of future Fed actions. The charts below
show what markets believe the most likely outcome of upcoming FOMC meetings will
be. The charts are updated every business day and reflect the most recent data
released by the Chicago Board of
Trade. Probabilities can be estimated with various assumptions, which are
described in detail here and in the readme
worksheet of the downloadable Excel file. The assumptions used to construct each
day’s charts are indicated immediately below the pictures.
Hat tip: Macroblog
Fed Funds Rate Predictions
Economic Research and Data Monetary Policy
The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, May 8, 2007
Category: Federal Reserve
We have long criticized the absurd Retail pricing of CDs. A few years ago, we asked the question Are CD Prices Getting More Dynamic?
It seems that some people in the industry have actually read The Long Tail, and figured out that they are better off pricing older catalog CDs aggressively, and actually selling them, rather than maintaining an absurd list price for 20, 30, even 50 year old recordings, and letting them sit in some warehouse somewhere unsold.
At the same time, it must be mentioned that the preponderence of utterly brain damaged morons in positions of authority in the Music Biz has not attenuated one tiny bit. They are the anti Long Tailers, also known as The Fat Heads.
The latest evidence of blunt head trauma syndrome is via this little piece of advanced rocketry: To sell used CDs in some states, at the behest of the industry, you are required to: 1) have your fingerprints taken; 2) endure a 30 day waiting period; 3) only recieve store credit for used CDs (not cash).
Meanwhile, in the world of online retailing, Amazon has done a decent job taking CDs and recordings that are Long Tail — either via age, or obscurity, or just overdue — and making them available at more competitive prices.
As traditional CD sellers disappear, the long tail catalog will be found increasingly at Online retailers, while the Big BOx (Wal Mart, Best Buy, Target) only carries the latest top 50 hits.
It makes smart business sense to use Amazon to blow them out.
After the jump, there’s a handful of Discs I pulled from Amazon — most are $7.97 . . .
NARM Coverage: New Laws Threaten Used CD Market
Ed Christman, Chicago
Billboard May, 01, 2007 – Retail
Record shops: Used CDs? Ihre papieren, bitte!
Ars Technica,May 07, 2007 – 01:23PM CT