Bloggers Take On: Employment

This is another of our new features: Blogger’s Take. It is inspired by — a nice word for stolen — the WSJ’s Economist’s Take, which they post after major economic data releases.

We wanted to do something a bit more informal: Looking at different subjects a bit more in depth, and take in some perspectives from a broad variety of bloggers (as opposed to a narrow slice of Wall Street Dismal Scientists.

Here are our first half dozen responses to the question: "What Up With Employment?"
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"A striking characteristic of the US non-farms job data since the trough of 2002 is that recovery growth is the weakest since records began in 1939 (uncertain BLS September revision notwithstanding). Even the brief and frail recovery between the 1980 and 1981 recessions was stronger. It may be that growth has not yet peaked – but that would make this jobs recovery the slowest to pan out on record.

Moreover, the latest non-farm payrolls data paints a picture of deterioration, particularly in construction and related industries. Whilst both the unemployment rate and hourly earnings data stuck out as good news, the fact is they are lagging indicators. The Fed has ammo to hold on this data; but should coming months show job losses (not outlandish) they might still choose to wait on clearer inflation (and BLS) data before contemplating the wisdom of cuts."

- Rawdon, Capital Chronicle

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Category: Blog Spotlight, Employment

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Blog Spotlight: Capital Chronicle

Another edition of our new series:  Blog Spotlight.

We put together a short list of excellent but somewhat overlooked
blog that deserves a greater audience. Expect to see a post from a
different featured blogger here every Tuesday and Thursday evening,
around 7pm.

Next up in our Blogger Spotlight: RJH Adams (known as Rawdon) of Capital Chronicle. Rawdon was raised in a tiny emerging economy, and his professional life began as a dogsbody at the UK’s economics and finance ministry, HM Treasury. He subsequently moved to the finance functions of multinationals Xerox (UK) and General Electric (France) learning from the inside what making quarterly numbers really involves. In 2000 he left and co-founded an investment vehicle. He lives in the French Alps splitting most of his time between raising three small occasionally charming children and reading about economic development and investment."

Capital_chronicle

Today’s focus commentary looks at:


How good is the Baltic Dry Index as a proxy for global economic activity?                        

Conclusion: Still worth looking at – but with a proviso since 2006.

As
China moves in 2006 to being a consistent net exporter of steel its
influence over an important driver of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) – iron
ore for steel production – grows. But China’s massive growth in steel
output has come in large part though government intervention. This, to
some degree, is distorting the underlying freight rate picture.

To
what degree is key. The level and volatility of the BDI is influenced
not only by total commodity demand but also by fuel costs, seasonality,
fleet numbers, route bottlenecks and sentiment. These additional
factors should temper conclusions about the relevance of China’s steel
activities on the level of the BDI.

Discussion:
The
BDI has in the past been helpful to assessing global economic activity.
It is, after all, a reflection of real prices paid to ship production
inputs across the globe. Since March this year the index has been on a
tear, rising 70%, or 1,750 points.

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