ADP Report, NFP Numbers for February 2008

Construction and Financial Employment Changes

Construction_and_financial

Source: ADP, Macroeconomic advisors

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Tomorrow we learn what BLS data shows for the Non-Farm Payroll data for February. Consensus is for a meek 25,000 new jobs created. However, given the present concerns about a recession and the ongoing rate cut beggary, this data point could have outsized consequences.

The ADP Employment Change showed a decline of 23,000; expectations were for +18,000:

Nonfarm private employment declined 23,000 from January to February 2008 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report. The estimated change in employment from December 2007 to January 2008 was revised down 11,000 to 119,000. February’s decline of 23,000 signals a deceleration of employment growth across businesses of all sizes. . . 

Most of the decline in employment during February was accounted for by job losses at large companies, but there was a notable deceleration of employment growth at businesses of all sizes. Employment among small-size businesses, defined as those with fewer than 50 workers, advanced just 15,000 during the month, while employment among medium-size businesses with between 50 and 499 workers dropped 4,000. This was the first outright decline at medium-size businesses since June of 2003, when job growth was still recovering from the last recession. Employment at large businesses with more than 500 workers declined 34,000."

Note that ADP covers only private sector employment, and does not reflect government employment and hiring.

The most recent NFP data has been particularly volatile. We had a huge swing between January and  February 2007, largely caused by the Birth Death adjustments. This year, expect more of the same. In January 2008, we saw a -378k B/D jobs adjustment; A year ago February (Feb 2007) it was +118k.

Expect the unexpected tomorrow . . .

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Previously:
A Closer Look at Unemployment    
Thursday, September 06, 2007 | 07:19 AM
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2007/09/a-closer-look-a.html

Sources:
ADP National Employment Report
Wednesday, March 5, 2008, 8:15 A.M. ET
http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/

ADP Report (PDF)
http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/PDF/FINAL_Report_Feb_08.pdf

CES Net Birth/Death Model 
BLS February 1, 2008 
http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Employment

Faber Says Bernanke Policy Will `Destroy’ U.S. Dollar

Category: Currency, Federal Reserve, Inflation

Why Can’t I Rip DVDs to My iPod?

Simpsons_movLegally, that is.

This is my annoyance of the moment: Why are DVDs a DRM-locked proprietary platform? When I purchase one, why can’t I use this on a convenient, portable device such as my iPod?

What a pain in the arse it is to rip a DVD: Frist, you need to use several products (MP4
Converter
, Handbrake, Ripper); 2nd, it takes forever. 3rd, and its illegal to do so.

What brought this about recently was The Simpson’s Movie — actually, more  of an extended 90 minute episode. I saw it with my nephews (with me snoozing thru parts of it).

However, going through the extras, I started listening to producer/writer commentary. Unbelievably entertaining stuff, like a terrific radio show with several very funny people cracking each other up. I would have liked to put on the iPod for the train, but no such luck.

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I can rip the basic movie, but not the special audio commentary. Anyone have a clue how to do that?

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Sources:

The Complete Guide to Converting DVDs to iPod Format
Jerrod Hofferth
iLounge, November 21, 2005
http://www.ilounge.com/index.php/articles/comments/the-complete-guide-to-converting-dvds-to-ipod-format-mac/

Rip DVDs To Your Mac To View On AppleTV And iPod.
Alexis Kayhill
Mac360, Friday, April 13, 2007
http://mac360.com/index.php/mac360/comments/rip_dvds_to_your_mac_to_view_on_appletv_and_ipod/

Category: Digital Media, Film, Technology, Television, Video

Ambac, Part III

Category: Credit, Derivatives, Finance

The Misleading Jobless Rate

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Employment, Psychology

Media Appearance: CNBC’s Squawk on the Street (3/5/08)

Category: Media

Bankruptcy & Countrywide

Category: Consumer Spending, Legal, Real Estate, Taxes and Policy

Bernanke to Banks: Take the Hit

Category: Credit, Federal Reserve, Real Estate

Foreclosure-proof Homeowners

Category: Credit, Economy, Real Estate

Internet Returns!

Category: Web/Tech