Who Are These People Surprised by Economic Data?

The WSJ on gross domestic product and initial jobless claims:

"Stocks fell Thursday after weaker-than-expected economic readings and
earnings reports underscored the potential for a recession."

Weaker than expected? WTF?

I keep hearing people talk about this "negativity bubble" — but from where I sit, the media, traders, analysts are still too optimistic — perhaps way too optimistic.

We have had 4 rallies over the past few weeks of nearly 200 Dow points in a given day. That doesn’t sound like excessive pessimism to me.

Ask yourself this: Is the greater fear getting stuck with stocks that move lower — or missing any rally?

Its easy to make an argument that speculative fervor lives; that the steep yield curve has emboldened traders, and that the lower prices are attractive; and that most of the bad news is already priced in.

But consider the following headlines:

Eight Reasons There Won’t Be a Recession

Blue chips are signaling recession can be avoided

Stocks in U.S. Tumble After GDP Trails Economists’ Forecasts

Eisenbeis Says Concerns of U.S. Recession `Overblown’

U.S. Economy Grew 0.6% in Q4, Less Than Economists Estimated

Despite write-downs, it looks like the bottom is near for stocks

Bush: US is not headed into recession

Do these reek of hope or of despair?

I am working on a column describing exactly what the bottom of a Bear market looks like. Sorry to tell you kids, but this ain’t it.

Fourth-Quarter GDP Unrevised at 0.6%
WSJ, February 28, 2008 8:48 a.m.

Category: Economy, Financial Press

Why the Fed is Compelled to Lie to Congress

Category: Credit, Economy, Federal Reserve, Inflation

Bloomberg Podcasts on ther Economy

Category: Digital Media, Economy, Financial Press


Indexed I have been totally loving this little book by Jessica Hagy called Indexed:

With a few deft lines, she manages to communicate a whole lot more information then you would imagine possible, in quite an amusing and witty way.

Some of her stuff comes dangerously close to chart porn.

I posted a few more examples after the jump.

Golden parachutes make for wild rides.Card1128


Great stuff . . .

Read More

Category: Books, Data Analysis

Housing Round Up

Category: Financial Press, Real Estate

Detroit Housing = ~$0

Category: Economy, Real Estate, Web/Tech

Big Picture Demographic Survey

Category: Weblogs

Dollar Weakness

Category: Currency, Financial Press, Music

Declining Home Prices, Rising Mortgage Rates

Category: Credit, Federal Reserve, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Inflation, Real Estate

Roubini: Recession May Last Up to Six Quarters

My pal Nouriel Roubini, of NYU and RGE talks with Bloomberg about the outlook for a U.S. recession and the housing market.

click for video


Roubini Says U.S. Recession May Last Up to Six Quarters
Bloomberg, February 26 2008

Category: Economy, Video