A measure of stock market sentiment out today is at levels similar to last October when the major indices hit record highs.
The American Assoc of Individual Investors weekly data today has Bulls at 53.3% and Bears at 26.3%. The high in Oct was 54.7% in the Bulls and 25.4% in the Bears.
The caveat with this # is that individual investors are very fickle and thus this data is all over the place week to week and is much more volatile than the weekly Investors Intelligence data.
I don’t track this survey regularly — I prefer either trade based measures (Put/call ratio, fund manager cash on hand), but I also do not dismiss surveys totally.
Anyone have any long term experience with this survey series?
As we await what is happening with Microsoft and Yahoo, Aaron Task and I discussed the bigger picture as to what happens next on the internet.
This was all pretty off the cuff stuff (in case you cannot tell) but its how I really feel about the players involved:
That headline was actually spontaneous (I can turn a phrase, huh?)
Ok, feel free to write what a MSFT basher I am (no arguments from me)
Nobel laureates in economics Gary Becker of the University of Chicago, Edmund Phelps of Columbia University, Myron Scholes of Stanford University, and Michael Spence, former dean of the Stanford University Business School, participate in a panel discussion at the Milken Institute Global Conference in Los Angeles about the theory of "decoupling" and outlook for the U.S. and global economies.
Becker, Phelps Are Optimistic on U.S. Economic Outlook
Bloomberg, April 29 2008