This was quite a week! Up, down, all around. Its enough to give any stock jockey whiplash.
No matter, its now the weekend, and you know what that means: Linkfest!
Let’s get to it:
• This week saw me become more aggressive — over the short term (2-4 weeks) — towards an Upside Bias. This discussion explains the technical reasons why.
• Institutional Investor asks an intriguing question: Do Ex-Athletes Make Better Traders?
• ECRI, the excellent Business Cycle analytical firm, has been pretty steadfast in saying they do not see a recession coming. This week, they shifted their perspective somewhat; They now ask, Industrial Slowdown Ahead?
• As the Baby Boomers age, there’s a potentially inadvertent benefit: As they shift their portfolios towards fixed income holdings, they may help keep Interest Rates low;
• Our pals at OPEC tell us the world "oversupplied" with oil;
• Lots of Real Estate related data this week, all of which conveniently fits my long term thesis about the macro economy and what’s to come over
the next few years. See also the NYT’s David Leonhardt, who advises us: Don’t Fear the Housing Bubble That Bursts; It counteracts the Declining Affordability for First-Time Home Buyers;
• Morgan Stanley’s Andy Xie notes that China is running into some serious overcapacity;
• NYU Prof Nouriel Roubini thinks the hubbub about Dubai managing our
ports misses a key point: With the US current account deficit close to
a trillion dollars, he observes that, with no change, of
course foreigners will soon own most of the US capital stock;
• A robust rally is no excuse for lazy portfolio management. That’s why you should Enjoy the Rally but Cull the Herd (if no RM sub, see this: Get Darwinian on Your Portfolio!); After that column ran, a friend sent me "Darwinian Investing;"
• The Motley Fools (remember them?) asks: Is Shorting Stocks Foolish?
• Econbrowser’s Menzie Chinn asks a very interesting question: Where Do All Those Economic Numbers Come From?
• There’s now a new commodities ETF thats useful as a hedging tool;
• In case you didn’t know, Time is an abstract concept that doesn’t
actually exist out of our subjective experiences: There is no Time out of mind;
• I’ve been enjoying Naked Economics (its not what you think);
• One of my favorite local radio stations is WFMU,
a Freeform station where management gives the DJ complete control over
program content. They are the anti-Clearchannel, and their Beware of the Blog is interesting for music fans. The downloadable MP3s are full of wild stuff.
• I’ve mentioned Jack Johnson in this space before; His new soundtrack to the Curious George animated film — Sing-A-Longs & Lullabies — has become a surprise hit. Adult parents and their young kids both like it!
• Wired mag on How Digital Animation Conquered Hollywood;
• And what is very likely the funniest thing you will read all weekend, here’s What happens when you Stun Gun yourself. Its worth reading (again and again);
Anytime I travel, I spend most of the next week digging out from a
weeks worth of emails, voice mail, and research I’ve fallen behind
with. Returning from Silicon Valley and SF was no different, and so I was buried this week — so those of you who emailed me recently, please bear with me.
But I wanted to thank everyone who sent tourist and restaurant suggestions; I have half a dozen photos posted here, and should have alot more up before the weekend is over . . .
This past week saw a lot of Real Estate related data, all of which fits our long term thesis about the macro economy and what’s to come over the next few years.
For those of you who may be newer to the site, we have been dicussing this for quite a while: starting in December 2004, we noted how Real Estate was a prime driver of the economy, and in Spring 2005, how new hiring was overly reliant on the Real Estate Sector; in August 2005, we called that Housing was beginning to show signs of cooling, and that this would eventually wreak havoc on consumer spending. In the Fall 2005, we noted how dependent GDP had become on Mortgage Equity extraction. You can find all of these by using the site search function, right sidebar.
Now as of March 2006, most of these concepts have become widely recognized and (mostly) accepted — but when they were first introduced here, there was no small amount of incredulity and pushback surrounding them.
Looking forward, I see rates rising, housing cooling further, the consumer cutting back, and the stimulus driven economy slowing, if not slipping into an outright recession.
On to the round up:
• And the most ironic piece of all, The WSJ’s Greg Ip Discovers Data Manipulation
There’s more all over the web if you want to surf, but that’s the main gist of it.
UPDATE March 5, 2006 4:44pm
The NYT’s Sunday Magazine is all about Real Estate
Go to Introduction: The For-Sale Society
See the Sunday Times Mag TOC after the jump . . .
Category: Real Estate