Traffic Indicates . . .

In the Soros discussion this morning, Drey asks (in comments):

"Curious about what your unofficial # of visits to the site indicator may be telling you about the likelihood of an oversold bounce on Monday.  My gut tells me that while this may be possible or even likely, one of these days a big distribution day will be followed by an even bigger distribution day as the bottom falls out completely and that’s when the fun will really start.

So which will it be, short term bounce or ‘look out below’?  Either way the Jan/March lows will be taken out by the end of summer so I guess you can kill me fast or kill me slow…"

That’s a good question worth digging into:  As the chart below shows, Traffic has been softening this entire week, at least when compared to the prior three weeks.

In the past, we have seen big traffic spikes accompany tradable bottoms. We are not seeing the same degree of fear we have seen in prior whooshes down. Whether that’s a function of sentiment, vacations — or just me slacking off — I cannot say for sure.

However, I am unsure as to how valid this lack of traffic spike is as an indicator. Hey, Summer officially starts today — and we do not have a whole lot of past examples to draw from. I can say that I didn’t get the sense of a high volume panic that accompanied the prior traffic spikes — like the ones we saw on January 23rd.


30 Day Page Views, TBP

via Sitemeter



Blog Traffic as a Contrary Market Indicator (February 2008)

Traffic Spike? (January 2008)


Category: Markets, Psychology, Weblogs

Iowa Floodwaters

Category: Commodities, Science

WSJ Interview: George Soros

Interesting interview with George Soros:

WSJ: You argue that the crises we’ve experienced in the past 25 years have been, in retrospect, "testing events" that convince us the system is stable, encourage us to take even bigger risks, leading to one, cataclysmic collapse. Could this be just another testing event?

Mr. Soros: Each time the authorities saved us, that reinforced the belief that markets are self-correcting. Each time when you bail out the economy, you need to find a new motor, a new source of credit and a new instrument that allows for the credit expansion. [It's] difficult to imagine what you can do when you are already lending effectively 100% on inflated house prices.

I have a record of crying wolf at these times. I did it first in "The Alchemy of Finance" [in 1987], then in "The Crisis of Global Capitalism" [in 1998] and now in this book. So it’s three books predicting disaster. [After] the boy cried wolf three times … the wolf really came. If we can sail through this without a recession, then the superbubble story is seriously impacted … I [will] have cried wolf again. Unfortunately, if you go into a recession, [it is not] proof of reflexivity, or vice versa.

WSJ: How is that you are rich despite your world view having been wrong so far?

Mr. Soros: I’m only rich because I know when I’m wrong.

There are no more important or truer words in trading than this: Bad trade, I was wrong, sell out the position. (That sounds strangely familiar) Soros makes it clear that he understands that quite well.

The whole interview is worth a few minutes of your precious weekend time . . .


Hey Greg! Your cube’s desk looks awfully clean . . .  Oh, that’s right — I almost forgot!


Soros, the Man Who Cries Wolf, Now Is Warning of a ‘Superbubble’
WSJ, June 21, 2008; Page B1


Category: Commodities, Economy, Markets, Psychology, Video

Friday Night Jazz: Steely Dan


I’m a huge fan of what the BBC once called "one of the most important and intelligent bands the US has produced: Steely Dan.

Saw ‘em live a few times, most recently on Wednesday night at the Beacon Theater. If you ever get a chance to see a concert in a small venue with large artists, its a very interesting experience (3rd row center doesn’t hurt either).

Their music is characterized by "complex jazz-influenced structures
and harmonies, literate and sometimes obscure or ambiguous lyrics,
filled with dark sarcasm." They are known for their "adroit musicianship
and studio perfectionism." (Wiki)

I was trying to figure out the best way to recommend material from The Dan — which albums you must own — but I simply cannot offer up anything better than the 4 CD box set.

The 4 CD box set
itself is the first six 7 of the Dan’s studio releases on 4 discs for the bargain price of $36.

Steely_dan_boxed_setSteely Dan are justly famous for their use of "chord sequences
and harmonies that explore the area of musical tension between
traditional pop music sounds and jazz." These 4 CDs reveal a musical dynamism that is unmatched in modern
music.  The lyrics are sardonic,
engaging and humorous. Indeed, it is one of the greatest catalogues in the annals of
pop/jazz music history. That’s one reason why Steely Dan makes my short list of greatest American Rock and Roll bands. (Note that on Rolling Stone’s top 500 albums, Pretzel Logic is #385 and Can’t Buy a Thrill is #238.

Also of note: Citizen Steely Dan: 1972-1980  contains what may very well be the best Amazon review I have ever come across.

Your other option is to grab a few single discs. If I had to cut it down to just 3 CDs, here’s how I would roll: Surely, you can pick any of the five early Dan CDs — all are great — but my favorite is 1975′s Katy Lied ($7.97). The album saw took otherwise classic rock style songs, and arranged and played them in a jazz idiom. With Michael McDonald’s background vocals, the Dan infused a smoky Soul flavor. It was complex mashup of styles that worked wonderfully.

My second disc choice has to be the great Aja, a groundbreaking 1977 CD. It was a favorite of audiophiles, stunned recording engineers, oh, and  dominated FM radio for a year. Aja was even more heavily jazz-influenced than Katy Lied, and was graced with  top-notch jazz musicians: Larry Carlton, Lee Ritenour, Wayne Shorter and Chuck Rainey.

Aja won numerous awards, shot into the Top Five in the U.S. charts within three weeks of release, and was one of the first American LPs to be certified ‘platinum’ for sales of over 1 million albums. It was that good. Aja is #145 on Rolling Stone’s top 500 albums. If I have any complaint about this slick disc, it was that the radio play was so overwhelming it became a bit played out way back when.

Last year, I mentioned the making of Steely Dan’ Peg (off of Aja) that I randomly discovered on YouTube. It was simply terrific. If you are any type of Dan fan, you must go order this right now.

The third selection is Donald Fagen’s solo disc, The Nightfly (a previous Friday Night Jazz selection). Even if you get the Dan box set, you have to add this CD to the mix. The WSJ called The Nightfly "one of pop music’s sneakiest masterpieces" and I think that moniker fits well. The key to this is the music’s timeless quality. It was retro back in
1982, and over the years, has never grown to sound tired or even of a specific era. It remains fresh, even 25 years later.

Not only did the CD win critical acclaim amongst the jazz and pop
reviewers, but the disc delighted audiophiles of all stripes. You see, The Nightfly was one of the first fully digital recordings of popular music. Add to that the usual crisp, sleek production The Dan were famous for, and you have a recipe for a phenomenal recording.

Any of the above provides a rewarding aural experience. These are amongst the best music from the  1970s/80s era, and indeed of all time.


Before we jump to the videos, one little bit of trivia: Since both Becker & Fagen were avid readers of 1950′s "Beat" literature, they decided to name the band "Steely Dan" after a dildo in William Burroughs’ "Naked Lunch" . . .


videos after the jump.

Read More

Category: Digital Media, Friday Night Jazz, Music

12,000: We Hardly Knew Ya

Category: Currency, Economy, Markets, Psychology

World Affairs Monthly Interview: Insanity Distilled

Category: Media, Podcast, Web/Tech, Weblogs

The US Gasoline Slide

Category: Economy, Energy

What Conspiracy?

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Employment, Inflation, Psychology

Oil Producers to Meet to Discuss Supply, Prices

Government leaders and oil producers will meet in Saudi Arabia over the weekend to discuss record crude prices. Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil producer, is considering raising production. But will this solve the problem?

click for video



Exploding commodity prices, lax monetary policy, and sovereign wealth funds   
Guillermo Calvo
20 June 2008

Leaders, Oil Producers to Meet to Discuss Supply, Prices: Video
Rebecca McLaughlin-Duane
Bloomberg, June 19, 2008 23:12 EDT

Category: Commodities, Energy, Video

Bagehot Was Wrong (?)

Category: Credit, Derivatives, Federal Reserve, Psychology