NFP Preview

Consensus for tomorrow’s Nonfarm Payroll is pretty rich: 250,000 new jobs. I think that number is high (more on this tomorrow), as well as Productivity data (more on that Monday).

As we await tomorrow morning’s data, let’s take a run at some of the Cleveland Fed’s monthly chartbook. They remain quite instructive:

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click for larger charts

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This is the worst jobs creation recovery since WWII ended

Percent_change_from_prior_peak_cfr_106

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Various Unemployment Measures
(note that the full measure of U-6 is 8.75%)

Alt_unemploy_rate_cfr_106

How has Labor Participation Rate changed since 2000 ?

Nilf_unemploy_cfr_106

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Who’s dropping out of the Job Market by age?   

Change_labor_force_participation_cfr_106

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Employment Ratio (Civilian Population)

Employment_pop_ratio_cfr_106

Sources:
Economic Research & Data
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF CLEVELAND
http://www.clevelandfed.org/Research/index.cfm

ECONOMIC TRENDS
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF CLEVELAND, January 2006
http://www.clevelandfed.org/Research/ET2006/0106/trends.pdf

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