This morning, I am on CNBC’s Squawk on the Street, at 10;40am.
Today’s appearance is courtesy of our winning forecast in the WSJ 2007 contest, which was described as "eerily close" to the final tally.
As I have said many times, these contests come down to mostly dumb luck, that forecast is folly, and as wildly off as I was in 2006, I was that wildly on in 2007. We do them for fun, and never ever ever make investments based upon them.
With those weasely caveats in place, here are our forecast for 2008:
2007 Close 2008 Mid Year 2008 Final
DJIA: 13265 11,900 12,800
S&P 500: 1468 1275 1350
NASDAQ: 2652 2275 2400
Russell 2000: 766 580 639
10-year yield: 4.03 3.75 4.10
Favorite sectors are Health Care, Consumer Staples (Food & Tobacco), Engineering/Infrastructure, Utilities, Miners (especially Gold). We still like Oil and Agriculture, but the easy money has already been made. We are looking to buy into Technology, but from appreciably lower levels than present.
I will leave you with this slightly randy limerick, courtesy of one curmudgeonly troll:
The forecaster is a gentle man
With neither sword nor pistol
He walks along most daintily
Because his balls are crystal
2007 Forecasts after the jump
Its an election year, and that means sophistry and ignorance in equal measures will be flooding the airwaves and intertubes. We have taken it as our charge here to fight against the logically challenged and the factually incorrect. We addressed this exact issue four years ago, but given the propensity us Humans have for self-delusion,…Read More
I’ve mentioned the Blu Ray/HD quandry in the past, but it seems the fight is drawing to its conclusion. In both the US and Europe, Blu-ray discs are significantly outselling HD DVDs.
But its this MacRumors chart (below) that pretty much sums up the battle:
Its hard to see how HD has a shot.
Now the question becomes how fast the prices drop on both the Blu Ray players and movies, but for now, I am sticking with an upconvert Sony for the big TV.
UPDATE: January 8, 2008 8:21pm
Why would prices go down?
As we previously discussed, I suspect many consumers have been on the sidelines awaiting the winner of the format war between Blu-Ray and HD.
As that fades away, the total number of purchases of the winner — Blu Ray — will go up significantly.
Thus, economies of scale, mass adaptation, and desires for deep market penetration will drive prices lower.
As to the monopoly issue — I doubt its an issue. 1) These are video playback toys, not an essential product or service; and B) There is still legit competition from ordinary DVD players (fer cryin out loud, you can still buy VCRs for $29).
My apologies for failing to explain the intermediate steps in my thinking . . .