Media Appearance: CNBC’s Squawk on the Street (1/10/08)

Squawk_on_the_street_440x230b

This morning, I am on CNBC’s  Squawk on the Street, at 10;40am.

Today’s appearance is courtesy of our winning forecast in the WSJ 2007 contest, which was described as "eerily close" to the final tally.

As I have said many times, these contests come down to mostly dumb luck, that forecast is folly, and as wildly off as I was in 2006, I was that wildly on in 2007. We do them for fun, and never ever ever make investments based upon them.

With those weasely caveats in place, here are our forecast for 2008:

2007 Close                             2008 Mid Year            2008 Final

DJIA: 
13265                      11,900                       12,800

S&P 500: 1468                    1275                         1350

NASDAQ: 2652                    2275                         2400

Russell 2000:  766               580                           639

10-year yield: 4.03              3.75                          4.10

Favorite sectors are Health Care, Consumer Staples (Food & Tobacco), Engineering/Infrastructure, Utilities, Miners (especially Gold). We still like Oil and Agriculture, but the easy money has already been made. We are looking to buy into Technology, but from appreciably lower levels than present.

I will leave you with this slightly randy limerick, courtesy of one curmudgeonly troll:

The forecaster is a gentle man
With neither sword nor pistol
He walks along most daintily
Because his balls are crystal

~~~

2007 Forecasts after the jump

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Game Over in Blu-Ray HD contest?

I’ve mentioned the Blu Ray/HD quandry in the past, but it seems the fight is drawing to its conclusion. In both the US and Europe, Blu-ray discs are significantly outselling HD DVDs.

But its this MacRumors chart (below) that pretty much sums up the battle:

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Warner_300

Its hard to see how HD has a shot.

Now the question becomes how fast the prices drop on both the Blu Ray players and movies, but for now, I am sticking with an upconvert Sony for the big TV.


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UPDATE: January 8, 2008 8:21pm

Why would prices go down?

As we previously discussed, I suspect many consumers have been on the sidelines awaiting the winner of the format war between Blu-Ray and HD.

As that fades away, the total number of purchases of the winner — Blu Ray — will go up significantly.

Thus, economies of scale, mass adaptation, and desires for deep market penetration will drive prices lower.

As to the monopoly issue — I doubt its an issue. 1) These are video playback toys, not an essential product or service; and B)  There is still legit competition from ordinary DVD players (fer cryin out loud, you can still buy VCRs for $29).   

My apologies for failing to explain the intermediate steps in my thinking  . . .

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