I had to do a double take on this one:
"A recent survey of top Wall Street economists by The Wall Street Journal
revealed expectations that fourth quarter real GDP will rise at about a 1.5%
annual rate. The first quarter of next year is expected to come in at about 2%,
and to inch higher through the year. Steady, moderate growth in consumer
spending and strong exports are creating growth.
There is no evidence of
The weekly H.8 data from the Federal Reserve show that banks
are continuing to extend credit at a steady rate.
There is no evidence
of a broad credit crunch."
–Dick Green, president of Briefing.com
How someone can read a collection of forecasts, and from that deduce a lack of evidence of potential recession is far beyond me. Its disingenuous beyond belief.
Go read the full piece, and come back to post a comment whether Mr. Green is correct or not. Consider this your open thread for the evening . . .
(Hat tip Marketbeat)
The Fears are Real
Briefing.com, 20-Nov-07 08:48 ET
I previously mentioned The Panic of 1907: Lessons Learned from the Market’s Perfect Storm by Robert F. Bruner and Sean D. Carr, in a linkfest a few months ago.
I found the book, published exactly a century after the original event, to have some rather interesting parallels to today.
The significance of the 1907 Panic as an economic event went far beyond the mere crash and recovery. It eventually led to the creation of the U.S. Federal Reserve.
There is a video excerpt from the book here.
The authors point out the following Déjà vu — 100 years later: "War was fresh in mind. Immigration was fueling dramatic changes in society. New technologies were changing people’s everyday lives. Wall Street was wheeling and dealing . . ."
They also name 7 factors are required to develop a financial panic: Buoyant Growth, Systemic Architecture, Inadequate Safety Buffers, Adverse Leadership, Real Economic Shock, Fear and Greed, Failure of Collective Action.