This is a first: Tonite at 6:30, I am appearing on PBS’ Nightly Business Report with Paul Kangas and Susie Gharib.
Tonites subject is the impact of slowing housing on the economy. For a refresher, see Real Estate and the Post-Crash Economy from earlier this year.
We will discuss sectors to avoid: Electronics Retailers, Durable Goods makers, Mortgage Underwriters, and the Sub-prime mortgage lenders.
With new Mortgages and refis down — and revolving credit use up — the credit card companies have become much more attractive. Also well positoned are the big caps and exporters who can take advantage of the week dollar.
Streaming video (
eventually) can be found here.
Fascinating stuff: Carl Størmer points us to this amazing map of the United States. Each state’s economic output is analogized to another country’s GDP. click for larger chart: Notable omissions: U.K., Japan, Germany, China, Russia, Italy. I cannot vouch for the precision of this, but by eyeball, it looks about right. Carl adds: “When seeing…Read More
These are not intended to be predictions, but rather "events that have a
reasonable chance of occurring, despite the general perception that the odds are
The real purpose of this endeavor is to consider positioning a portion of my
portfolio in accordance with outlier events — with large payoffs. After all,
Wall Street research is still very much convention and groupthink,
despite the reforms over the past several years.
25 Possible Surprises in 2007
1. Private equity deals begin the year in a spectacular fashion with
two separate $50 billion dollar acquisitions announced in January.
2. Robert E. Rubin returns to his brokerage roots and becomes the CEO
and Chairman of Salomon Brothers/Smith Barney after Citigroup (C)
decides to break up into three separate companies: a domestic money center bank
(Citibank), investment banking/retail brokerage (Salomon Brothers/Smith Barney)
and international consumer finance (Citiglobal).
3. Based on misleading government statistics, the housing market
appears to stabilize in the first quarter of 2007.