NonFarm Payroll Day: Not-So-Great Expectations

Nfp
We’ve been looking at various unemployment rates lately, heading into today’s NFP report at 8:30 am.

A few things worth mulling over while we await that data point:

Trend: The overall trend for the past 3 years has been decellerating job creation, and increasing unemployment. Of the two, job creation is the data series that has gotten appreciable worse the fastest;

• Birth/Death adjustment typically swings from a big negative in January to a big positive in February. This may skew today’s results upwards.

ADP data was a big downside surprise;

• Unemployment rates have only begun to move up, 0.50% off of the lows
to ~4.9%. Initial and continuing claims for jobless benefits have been rising steadily. The risk is if and when this series begins to accelerate upwards.

• Today’s consensus number is for 25,000 new jobs, from a range of  -50,000 to +50,000; 

• For unemployment, the consensus is a 5.0%, with a range from 4.9% to 5.1%. No one thing UR is getting any better, but few think its is getting much worse too quickly.

Rex Nutting points out two additional factoids:  1) The number of consumers who say jobs are hard to get increased sharply in the Conference Board survey in February; and, 2) Employment subindexes have fallen in the Institute for Supply Management and other similar business surveys. Neither of these are positives leading into today’s NFP.

Remember, any single data point in a volatile series is relatively meaningless; Its the overall trend that matters.

Note: I am out of pocket for the next few hours, ending up at Bloomberg TV, and won’t be able to follow up for some time . . .

>

Source:
Job growth has slowed to a crawl, economists say
Rex Nutting
MarketWatch,  7:39 p.m. EST March 6, 2008
http://tinyurl.com/3xtzu7

Category: Economy, Employment, Wages & Income

More on Unemployment Rates

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Employment

Who Has Been Wrong On Housing, Credit, Economy, Dollar?

Category: Commodities, Data Analysis, Economy, Financial Press, Markets

Federal Reserve: Household Equity at all time lows

Category: Credit, Data Analysis, Economy, Real Estate

Who Are the Socialists: FOMC vs ECB ?

Category: Federal Reserve, Fixed Income/Interest Rates

Pending Home Sales Down 19.6%

Category: Credit, Economy, Real Estate

ADP Report, NFP Numbers for February 2008

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Employment

Faber Says Bernanke Policy Will `Destroy’ U.S. Dollar

Category: Currency, Federal Reserve, Inflation

Why Can’t I Rip DVDs to My iPod?

Simpsons_movLegally, that is.

This is my annoyance of the moment: Why are DVDs a DRM-locked proprietary platform? When I purchase one, why can’t I use this on a convenient, portable device such as my iPod?

What a pain in the arse it is to rip a DVD: Frist, you need to use several products (MP4
Converter
, Handbrake, Ripper); 2nd, it takes forever. 3rd, and its illegal to do so.

What brought this about recently was The Simpson’s Movie — actually, more  of an extended 90 minute episode. I saw it with my nephews (with me snoozing thru parts of it).

However, going through the extras, I started listening to producer/writer commentary. Unbelievably entertaining stuff, like a terrific radio show with several very funny people cracking each other up. I would have liked to put on the iPod for the train, but no such luck.

~~~

I can rip the basic movie, but not the special audio commentary. Anyone have a clue how to do that?

>

Sources:

The Complete Guide to Converting DVDs to iPod Format
Jerrod Hofferth
iLounge, November 21, 2005
http://www.ilounge.com/index.php/articles/comments/the-complete-guide-to-converting-dvds-to-ipod-format-mac/

Rip DVDs To Your Mac To View On AppleTV And iPod.
Alexis Kayhill
Mac360, Friday, April 13, 2007
http://mac360.com/index.php/mac360/comments/rip_dvds_to_your_mac_to_view_on_appletv_and_ipod/

Category: Digital Media, Film, Technology, Television, Video

Ambac, Part III

Category: Credit, Derivatives, Finance