Forget forecasting: You can’t even begin to think about the Future if you don’t understand the Present.
Case in point: Holiday Retail sales.
You may have overlooked the Black Friday weekend numbers, as the headline emphasis was on well, how strong they were relative to expectations. On that Friday, we saw an 8.5% gain thanks to huge discounting and door-buster giveaways.
The thinking seemed to be "Sure, we lose money on each sale, but we make it up in volume!"
Amazingly, the cheerleading in the space seems to be abating, as the MSM is now clued into the problem — and reporting it freely. The remarkably sanguinity we have seen over the years is no more.
courtesy of NYT
Consider the following articles, after the jump, on Consumer spending, sentiment, and retail sales :
Tonite is my debut on Fast Money — a fast "Chartology" segment, from 5:30pm to 5:40pm or so, on CNBC. The show is on at 5pm and again at 8 pm.
We will be discussing the SPX, State Street bank (STT) and Stanley (SXE)
See discussion after the jump . . .
Should be fun!
UPDATE: December 4, 2007 7:36am
The Chartology segment is posted at CNBC
Not how much macro/fundie info I slipped in.