ISM Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. Gross Domestic Product

GDP data came in hot Wednesday, but ISM / Chicago PMI both came in very weak, near recessionary levels. As the nearby chart shows, ISM leads GDP — up and down. 

The steady downtrend since December 2003 and this month’s dip below 50 in the ISM index point to a weaker U.S. economy in the months ahead.

ISM Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. Gross Domestic Product
(Quarterly, ISM Data through Feb-07)

Ismgdp


Chart courtesy of Michael Panzner

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