Sales of existing homes surprised to the upside yesterday. But one data point does not make a trend. This is the first rise (sequential monthly change) after 5 straight months of falling Home Sales. And that’s before we examine the data.
Before you declare the end of the housing slow down, consider:
- Existing Home sales actually slipped vs. last year by -0.7%; The reported gain was over last month’s data;
- the Inventory of unsold homes soared 7 percent in March, hittting an all-time record; There are now 3.19 million existing homes for sale, or 5.5 months’ supply; That’s the largest inventory since July 1998
- Existing homes edged up 0.3% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of
6.92 million units; (we know that seasonally adjusted data is not always accurate)
- Year over year, the Northeast and Midwest gained, while the previously hot housing markets in the South and the West slipped;
- median home prices are still rising, albeit nmore slowly — up 7.4% year over year, to $218,000.
Here’s a data point that has me scratching my head: Why are there different numbers for the year-over-year changes for seasonally and not seasonally adjusted? Was this March somehow in a different season than last year’s March? I am perplexed.
Note that data for existing home sales comes from National Association of Realtors, a group that is certainly an interested party; Of course, as a homeowner, investor, and someone with a public bearish tilt for the second half, I’m hardly objective myself (hey, I try). But this oddity — down -0.5% for the not seasonally adjusted year over year versus down -0.7% for the seasonally adjusted year over year — is beyond my comprehension.
So much for the hard data on existing sales; Today, we get New Home Sales. Recall our prior admonishments that monthly New Home Sales Data are unreliable; look instead to a moving average.
Let’s move onto some anecdotal evidence. A friend writes:
"Flop! Wow, KB running blue light specials in California. Not surprising,
Chico area was rated one of the most overvalued markets in the country. Houses
in the $200k space. When was the last time you saw that in California? "
Here’s the sales pitch:
"Oak Knoll Place in Live Oak is located in a beautiful
community near the majestic Sutter Buttes. With easy access to Highway 99, it is
ideally located for easy access to Sacramento, Lake Tahoe, Reno and a wide
variety of recreational opportunities. Yuba City and Marysville are
approximately 10 minutes south, Chico is approximately 35 miles north and the
Gray Lodge Wildlife area is approximately 10 minutes west. Live Oak has a
quaint, small-town atmosphere with many nearby recreational water activities,
including the Feather River, Yuba River and Sacramento River. Prices starting
from the High $200′s."
I don’t know Live Oak, but houses like that in California are hard to imgaine . . .
More after the jump.
Existing-Home Sales Rise Again in March
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
WASHINGTON (April 25, 2006)
Existing Home Sales data
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
Over a year ago, I noted the decaying customer service quality in a few companies: In particular, Dell got named as a significant offender. (More recently, I complained about obnoxious Dell preinstalls).
I collected a ton of emails from readers about consumer complaints (mostly from January 2005).
I should have paid closer attention. Although I did not have a position in Dell, I missed the opportunity to short it.
Since that deluge of criticism in January 2005 the stock has underperformed dramatically, down 35% from over $41 to under $27. The stock was recently downgraded to a SELL at Citigroup — see that red bar down towards the far right on big volume? That’s the downgrade. The sell rating was due in part to customer service complaints.
The XM chart shows that I am already late to this kvetch-fest — it looks like XM may already have had their Dell moment — the stock is down even more — a 50% haircut from $40 to $20. Ouch!
There’s only so much any company can cut their "basic business concept" before they start causing a problem with their consumers. That obviously happened at Dell, via the degradation of their "vaunted customer service" and it appears to be going on at XMSR.
Quite bluntly, if your business model is based on a specific concept, you screw around with that at your own risk. For Dell, it was cheap and direct sales coupled with great customer service; Saving a few pennies by outsourcing/cutting back on support, and/or switching to cheaper components (as some readers have complained about with Dell) seems to be corporate suicide.
For XM, it may be that cutting the variety of their offerings will be their Waterloo. Their raison d’etre seems to be a broad and deep variety of eclectic channels. But as Chrissy Hyndes sang so long ago: But you mess with the goods doll, honey, you gotta pay. *
Here’s the post that started the calvalcade of complaints:
"I keep getting e-mail from disgruntled XM subscribers. That their favorite channel, #51, Music Lab, has bitten the dust. I’ll print one below.
This is totally fucked up. The promise of satellite radio was to go deep, to provide something for EVERYONE! But the new regime at XM, the Infinity assholes, are turning XM into the bullshit terrestrial radio that they came from. And this makes me CRAZY!
First came channel 49, Big Tracks. With the INANE tagline "Our Classic Rock". This is just the kind of b.s. unlistenable terrestrial classic rock stations use. And the station’s got no DEPTH! Just the same fucking tracks over and over again. With no surprises.
But now it’s worse. Music Lab was booted and what did we get? MORE HITS CHANNELS!!!
We’ve got XM 17, U.S. Country, Country Superstars of the 80s and 90s.
How about XM 26, Flight 26, Modern Hits 90s and Now.
Or XM 30. Hitlist. TODAY’S Hit Music.
Or 68, The Heat, RHYTHMIC HITS!
Or 91, Viva, Latin Pop Hits.
Oh, they brought back Liquid Metal, which had been banished before, but what we’ve now got is endless b.s. hits stations, replicating what is ALREADY AVAILABLE ON XM, their only saving grace being no commercials.
This is a big deal. This is like the death of free-format FM radio, but WORSE! The golden era is OVER!
And what about the people who subscribed to XM ONLY for Music Lab? People like Craig Anderton, the electronic music and instrument GURU! Who signed up for two years, EXPECTING he’d be able to listen to his kind of music. Which he could get nowhere else, which is why he subscribed to XM.
The lunatics have taken over the asylum. DO NOT SUBSCRIBE TO XM! They don’t have Howard, and the people now running the place have their heads up their ass."
Reader responses follow . . .
UPDATE: May 23, 2006 8:21am
Nice mention of this post in Wes Phillips’s Stereophile Column this week
All of XM’s Trials
Stereophile, May 21, 2006
UPDATE: May 24, 2006 5:21pm
Geesh! The stock got shellacked today on a downgrade on subscriber expectations:
XM, the nation’s largest satellite radio provider, lowered its subscriber forecast, citing unexpected weakness in demand for its satellite radio service as well as potential legal pitfalls from a recording industry lawsuit.
It now expects to reach 8.5 million subscribers by the end of 2006, lower than its previous guidance for nine million customers by year’s end. The company had 6.5 million subscribers at the end of the first quarter.
Shares tumbled on the news, losing 11%, or $1.76, to $13.75 at 4 p.m. on the Nasdaq Stock Market.