New Column at Real Money (04/22/08)

My latest Real Money column is up, looking at what to expect from the latest home sales data: Existing Home Sales Will Rise: Be Cautious With Builders.

It builds on some of the prior work we have done on the Seasonality of home sales.

Here’s an excerpt:

"Not surprisingly, it turns out January is the slowest month of the year when it comes to home sales. That intuitively makes sense, as most people are otherwise engaged in December – they are busy with Holidays and vacations. Many fewer people are shopping for homes then, so we get fewer contracts signed in January.

Once we get past January, the lowest sales month of the year, its pretty much all good for existing home sales through June. A pull back in July, a bounce back up in August, and that’s the best first part of the year.

Why? Well, consider how many families want to minimize the disruption to their kid’s education during a move. It seems most families with school-age children want to be in their new homes before the new school year starts in September. This makes sense in terms of both the overall pattern of sales, and the flurry of closings in August. The big fall off in September reflects the start of the school year; With so few buyers looking in December, its no surprise that January is the weakest month for sales."

Its on the subscription only site, but I will try to get it moved to the free section tomorrow . . .


Existing Home Sales Will Rise: Be Cautious With Builders, 4/22/2008 9:09 AM EDT

Category: Media, Real Estate

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Real Scoop: Television Pundit Analyzer

How would you like to have this attachment on your TV ?

"RealScoop utilizes leading voice analysis technology to analyze statements made by public figures. The BELIEVABILITY METER™ analyzes each video second by second, displaying the real-time results in a color-coded manner from left to right. The most believable statements are green, gradually turning red as they become more questionable.

Here’s what it looks like in action:

CEO of Bear Stearns (3 Days Before Collapse)
click for video



If I were philosopher king, I would mandate that be installed on every television set.


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