A few things worth mulling over while we await that data point:
• Trend: The overall trend for the past 3 years has been decellerating job creation, and increasing unemployment. Of the two, job creation is the data series that has gotten appreciable worse the fastest;
• Birth/Death adjustment typically swings from a big negative in January to a big positive in February. This may skew today’s results upwards.
• ADP data was a big downside surprise;
• Unemployment rates have only begun to move up, 0.50% off of the lows
to ~4.9%. Initial and continuing claims for jobless benefits have been rising steadily. The risk is if and when this series begins to accelerate upwards.
• Today’s consensus number is for 25,000 new jobs, from a range of -50,000 to +50,000;
• For unemployment, the consensus is a 5.0%, with a range from 4.9% to 5.1%. No one thing UR is getting any better, but few think its is getting much worse too quickly.
Rex Nutting points out two additional factoids: 1) The number of consumers who say jobs are hard to get increased sharply in the Conference Board survey in February; and, 2) Employment subindexes have fallen in the Institute for Supply Management and other similar business surveys. Neither of these are positives leading into today’s NFP.
Remember, any single data point in a volatile series is relatively meaningless; Its the overall trend that matters.
Note: I am out of pocket for the next few hours, ending up at Bloomberg TV, and won’t be able to follow up for some time . . .
Job growth has slowed to a crawl, economists say
MarketWatch, 7:39 p.m. EST March 6, 2008
This is my annoyance of the moment: Why are DVDs a DRM-locked proprietary platform? When I purchase one, why can’t I use this on a convenient, portable device such as my iPod?
What a pain in the arse it is to rip a DVD: Frist, you need to use several products (MP4
Converter, Handbrake, Ripper); 2nd, it takes forever. 3rd, and its illegal to do so.
What brought this about recently was The Simpson’s Movie — actually, more of an extended 90 minute episode. I saw it with my nephews (with me snoozing thru parts of it).
However, going through the extras, I started listening to producer/writer commentary. Unbelievably entertaining stuff, like a terrific radio show with several very funny people cracking each other up. I would have liked to put on the iPod for the train, but no such luck.
I can rip the basic movie, but not the special audio commentary. Anyone have a clue how to do that?
The Complete Guide to Converting DVDs to iPod Format
iLounge, November 21, 2005
Rip DVDs To Your Mac To View On AppleTV And iPod.
Mac360, Friday, April 13, 2007