One Last Comment on M3

We started beating the M3 drum back in November 2005. It seemed to us — on the basis of the rapid increase in M3 versus M2 alone — it was a worthwhile stat to keep around, and we could not understand why the Fed was so intent on cancelling M3 reporting. These perspectives were dismissed by some as paranoia.

You can imagine how pleasantly surprised we were when Raymond James’ Jeff Saut addressed that very issue this morning:

"Yet, we just don’t “get it” because as the Fed has
been raising interest rates, it has simultaneously been talking rates down by
commenting on how “contained” inflation remains. Surprisingly, concurrent with
the Fed’s financial tightening has been Mr. Bernanke’s “printing press” gone
wild with roughly $1.5 trillion additional dollars per year being added to the
country’s money supply, at least at the last M3 reading. And that caused one
savvy seer to exclaim, “Can you spell liquidity?!” Liquidity indeed, for as Ed
Hyman aptly notes, “U.S. Federal outlays in the 4Q increased to a remarkable
$2.7 trillion. That’s 21% of GDP and increasing at a 30% annual rate.”

Suspiciously, however, one month ago those M3, broad-based, money supply figures
ceased to be reported because they allegedly added little additional value to
the M2 figures. Hereto “we just don’t get it” because M3 contained the amount of
repo activity in the banking system while the M2 report does not. Repos, ladies
and gentlemen, is short for repurchase agreements, which are contracts for the
sale and future repurchase of a financial asset. Most often repos are used with
Treasury securities. We think repo activity is pretty important since it shows
the amount of “financial leverage” the Federal Reserve is attempting to
introduce into the banking and brokerage system. Indeed, we just don’t “get
it.”

Nevertheless, in this business what you see is what you get, which reminds us
of that old Annapolis “saw” – you can’t change the wind, but you can always
adjust the sails! And currently the “winds” are blowing interest rates higher.
Where this rate-rise will end is unknowable. Even the Fed has hinted that it
doesn’t know by commenting that things are “data dependent.” However, consider
this – When was the last time the Federal Reserve stopped raising interest rates
with many of the equity markets at (or near) all-time highs, base and precious
metals at multi-decade highs, oil within “spitting distance” of record highs,
and retail sales (despite a late Easter), as well as the housing figures,
stubbornly perky? Furthermore, the recent unemployment rate was at a four-year
low (4.7%), while the first quarter’s employment figures showed the strongest
non-farm payroll growth in six years. Historically, rising employment growth has
tended to lead to rising wage pressures. As the good folks at the GaveKal
organization opine, “Once again, we find ourselves asking the question, can the
Fed really stop at 5% in this environment?”

In addition to these questions, we would suggest that forgetting the
laughable “core” inflation figures (ex-food/energy), annualizing last month’s
headline CPI figure of +0.7% (core was +0.2%) yields an inflationary ramp-rate
of 8.4% (0.7% x 12). While clearly one month does not make a trend, even if we
use this week’s estimated headline CPI number of +0.4% (-0.2%E core), and
average it with last month’s (0.7% + 0.4% / 2 x 12 = 6.6%), we get an annualized
inflation rate of 6.6%. The potential inference from this is that despite the
Fed’s “tightening campaign” with Fed Funds at 4.75%, overlaid with a 6%+
inflation rate, we could still be in a negative “real” interest rate
environment. Given the possibility of still “free money” (aka negative real
rates), no wonder speculation remains rampant in the various markets."

What more can we add to that?

>

Source:
The 5% Solution
Jeffrey Saut
Investment Strategy
http://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm

Category: Economy, Federal Reserve, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Psychology

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Category: Data Analysis, Employment

Linkfest April Ides

Category: Weblogs

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Category: Apprenticed Investor, Investing, Psychology, Trading

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Category: Federal Reserve, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Inflation, Real Estate

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Category: Data Analysis, Federal Reserve, Inflation

Are future retirees overly optimistic?

Yes.

That’s the conclusion of a study by the  Employee Benefit Research Institute. EBRI determined that more than half of workers saving for retirement have less than $50,000 put away; Other employees are counting on employer-provided benefits in retirement that are increasingly unavailable.

Here’s the WSJ’s overview:

"Despite recent moves by large companies to freeze pensions and
chip away at retiree-health benefits, Americans remain confident — if
dangerously naïve — about their retirement prospects, according to new
research.

Many workers are counting on traditional pension plans to pay
their bills in retirement, even though such plans are fast disappearing. Only
40% of working couples currently are covered by pension plans, but nearly
two-thirds of surveyed workers — 61% — expect to get income from such a plan
in retirement, according to the Retirement Confidence Survey, scheduled for
release today by the Employee Benefit Research Institute, a Washington
nonprofit, and others.

The responses in the survey, conducted annually for the past 16
years, reflect few worries about the spreading curtailment of pension plans.
Twenty-four percent of the survey’s participants said that they are very
confident that they will have enough money to live comfortably in retirement –
virtually the same number as last year — and 44% of those surveyed said they
are somewhat confident about their financial prospects in later life, an
increase of four percentage points from last year."

See table below for more details . . .

Source:
Workers’ Views On Retirement May Be Too Rosy
KELLY GREENE
WSJ, April 4, 2006; Page D2
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB114411194874516024.html

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Category: Economy

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Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Federal Reserve

10 Year Yield: 5.043%

Category: Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Inflation

We’re Expecting Stocks to Rally

Category: Investing, Markets, Psychology