Parsing the Fed

The original Fed statement is here;

The WSJ Parses this statement with last month’s:

THE FED’S STATEMENTS reflect how the members of the central bank’s
Federal Open Market Committee perceive the economy. The slightest changes are
scrutinized for clues about where interest rates may be headed. The May 10
statement announced that the Fed was raising its key short-term interest rate by
one-quarter point to 5%, its 16th increase in a row and second under Bernanke –
which came as no surprise. More importantly, the statement opened the door for a
halt to rising rates for the first time in two years, while not ruling out more
increases. Below are the differences between the May statement and the March one.


click for larger graphic

Infofedparse0605

Category: Federal Reserve

To Pause or not to Pause

Category: Economy, Federal Reserve, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Inflation

Stephen Moore Gets Slick With the Data

Early this morning, I caught a few minutes of Stephen Moore’s Supply Side arguments on CNBC re Tax Cuts.

Rather than discuss what some have called Economic’s biggest mistake, and what the Chairman of President Bush Council of Economic Advisors Greg Mankiw described in the third edition of his book Principles of Economics textbook as the work of
"charlatans and cranks," I thought I would simply debunk his Capital Gains Tax Cut argument as increasing treasury receipts:

Moore is arguing that since tax reciepts went up after the Capital Gains Taxes were cut in 2003, it should therefore get all the credit. I would respond simply by going to the charts, and pointing out that THE ABSENCE OF CAPITAL GAINS FROM 2000-20003 is the primary reason.

This first chart shows the pre-tax cut period of October 2000 to March 2003; Gee, anyone want to hazard a guess for why Capital Gains Taxes paid were so low after the Nasdaq dropped 78%?

How about NO CAPITAL GAINS = NO CAPITAL GAINS TAXES!

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 Nasdaq 2000-03

200003_nazz

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The second chart shows what happened after the War began in March ’03. Note that the Nasdaq selloff was very similar in depth to the initial 1929 crash.

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Nasdaq 2003-06

2003_06_nazz

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Gee, when markets rally, people pay more Capital Gains! Go figure . . .

(And this is before we even mention increased Housing sales due to half century low interest rates and the potential capital gains taxes there) 

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Category: Data Analysis, Markets, Politics

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Category: Commodities, Energy, Financial Press, Psychology

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Category: Psychology, Technology, Trading

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Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Investing, Markets