Bearish/Bullish Sentiment

I keep hearing people say that investors are too bearish, and that’s a floor on the market.

That’s a bit misleading — individual investors have been, for the most part, bearish and non-participatory. Thats to be expected post-crash. An entire generation of investors (about 10-15 years) can eschew equities for other asset classes, like commodities and real estate. We saw a similar event post 1929 crash.

But the pros are the one driving markets. Our internal measures have found they are a little on the bullish side, but not yet excessively so.

This recent CNBC survey does imply that, in general, fund managers and strategists are quite bullish.

"Stock Market:  80% of those surveyed see the Dow around 14,000 or higher at the end of the year. 72% see the S&P 500 around 1550 or higher at year end. In terms of geographic investment opportunities in 2007 – those surveyed  are most bullish on the US market for 2007 – the US & Japan in 2008. Liquidity is the strongest factor influencing the stock market right now. Rising interest rates and Congress (Taxes, other legislation) are viewed as the two biggest threats to the stock market’s rally."   

Its interesting that this group is the most bullish on US market for 2007, even though it has lagged (and is still lagging) for years. Although, its arguable exactly how bullish a 50 point Dow move is (heh).

What is so odd is that 79% say the Fed’s next move will be to cut interest rates — but at the same time 90% see U.S. GDP growth holding between 1-3% for balance of year.  Makes you wonder what exactly would be the the cause of these rate cuts.


CNBC’s Trillion Dollar Survey: Most See Stock Rally Continuing | 16 Jul 2007 | 03:12 PM ET

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