These are not intended to be predictions, but rather "events that have a
reasonable chance of occurring, despite the general perception that the odds are
The real purpose of this endeavor is to consider positioning a portion of my
portfolio in accordance with outlier events — with large payoffs. After all,
Wall Street research is still very much convention and groupthink,
despite the reforms over the past several years.
25 Possible Surprises in 2007
1. Private equity deals begin the year in a spectacular fashion with
two separate $50 billion dollar acquisitions announced in January.
2. Robert E. Rubin returns to his brokerage roots and becomes the CEO
and Chairman of Salomon Brothers/Smith Barney after Citigroup (C)
decides to break up into three separate companies: a domestic money center bank
(Citibank), investment banking/retail brokerage (Salomon Brothers/Smith Barney)
and international consumer finance (Citiglobal).
3. Based on misleading government statistics, the housing market
appears to stabilize in the first quarter of 2007.