Here’s a bizarre observation:
I hardly find much in the way of new music on the radio. Haven’t for years. And we’ve already analyzed how iPods have become the new radio.
But consider this factoid:
One of the highest profile sources of new music, is, ironically, iPod commercials: U2′s Vertigo, Jerk it Out by The Caesars, Jason Nevins remixed version of N.E.R.D.’s song Rock Star, and Channel Surfing by Feature Cast, The Vine’s Ride, Ozomatli’s Saturday Night, John Murphy’s Spit, and Benny Golson, Music to Think By. I first heard all of these via an Apple advert (even with TiVo).
Then there’s the homebrewed Apple ads, featuring Tiny Machine by the Darling Buds, as well as What’s Your Favorite Color by Living Colour. Othe Apple ads: I really like both Take California by the Propellerheads,and Walkie Talkie Man by Stereogram — both of which I first heard via an iPod commercial. I have friends who say the same thing for Black Eyed Peas’ Hey Mama — pod commercial. Since I’m a brit rock fan, I knew of Jet’s Are You Gonna Be My Girl
– but I suspect that many people first heard that via iTunes adverts (Let me know in the comments if I missed any).
Indeed, I’ll bet many more people first heard all these songs on a television commercial, and not on the radio. What does that say about the broadcast industry? Not anything good, that’s for sure.
Apple hasn’t left out classic rockers: Jimi Hendrix (Purple Haze), Steppenwolf (Born to be Wild), Bob Dylan, (Forever Young), Barry White (You turned my whole world around) and the Rolling Stones (She’s a Rainbow). I wonder how many young ‘uns discoverd this music via Apple commercials?
Kinda ironic (don’t cha think)?
Joe Granville is a
very well regarded technician (now in his 80s) who has had some terrific calls in his career, and a few duds as well. On Bloomberg, there was a story on his most recent commentary, but I cannot seem to find it now; It more likely got moved than disappeared for nefarious reasons.
Anyway, Joe just got Bearish big time. Here’s an excerpt:
"Joseph Granville, who accurately forecast in 2000 that U.S. stocks’ bull market would end, is at it again. He expects the Dow Jones Industrial Average to suffer its biggest annual loss this year since the Great Depression.
“We’re in the critical portion of a coming collapse and the market’s screaming to get out,” said Granville in an interview from Kansas City, Missouri. “Everyone’s bullish. There’s going to be a tremendous surprise and it’s going to be to the downside.”
"Granville, publisher of the Granville Market Letter since 1963 and a technical analyst for almost 50 years, also foretold a stock-market decline in 1976. He misfired in 1982 and 1995 by calling for losses before share prices surged.
The 81-year-old analyst expects the Dow average to retreat to at least 7400 by year-end. The forecast amounts to a plunge of 31 percent. The last year in which the benchmark fell that much was 1937, when it lost 33 percent.
As a technical analyst, Granville predicts the market’s direction by using criteria such as trading and price patterns, rather than earnings and economic growth. He started developing his stock market theory at what was then E.F. Hutton & Co., a New York-based brokerage, from 1957 to 1963."
That bodes well for my 2005 forecast, as Joe tends to be early. I’m still looking for one last strong move up — Dow 11,700, Nasdaq 2600 — before it all heads south. Note that also gives me the opportunity to stay long if the uptrend remains in tact.
One of the key mistakes to avoid – call it the peril of predictions — is to never marry a forecast, especially your own. People wrap up too much ego in what is essentially educated guesswork. If you start with the assumption that your prediction is going to be wrong, its real easy to reverse yourself when necessary . . .
If you are interested in learning more about Granville,start with this article — Just Like Old Times as Joe Granville Yells `Sell’ — it gives some background on him if you are unfamiliar with his work.
Some more background on Granville:
Timing the Market
Joe Granville, father of the On Balance Volume (OBV) and its analysis
Bibliography of Published Books
UPDATE: March 18, 2005 7:09 am
Mark Hulbert provides the details on Granville’s track record. Not impressive (unless you are a fan of the Black Swan event . . .)
UPDATE: I still cannot find this anywhere, but a friend captured the text. Here it is for your enjoyment: