Ouch. A pair of painful days in a holiday shortened week. Way to start the new school year. The biggest surprise was the continuing lack of volume. Anecdotally, I have heard of many fund managers people still on vacation. I supposed the week after Labor Day is the real start of the Fall? When did that happen?

No matter. Once we geth thru a crass orgy of 9/11 commercializations (a comedic novel? A commerative coin?), we will get down to business. Crude was down 4%, Gold was down 2%, all the major US indices were negative.

But its the weekend, and you know what business that means: the festivus linkus!

Investing and Trading

An overview: Bullish, Bearish and Neutral factors to watch;

Top 12 Trading Rules

• Have investors become complacent? (If no WSJ, go here)

• Lets have a bit of a Yin & Yang today:

-On the one hand, there may be a New bull-market surprise ahead or The Bearish Evidence Is Overwhelming   


-How Bearish Does the Market Get During a Recession versus Five Ways to Recession-proof your Portfolio;   

• Chart Attack: FTSE, SPX, Copper, Gold

• The 100 fastest growing companies

• Pretty good guide:  How To Start A Hedge Fund

• The Dow’s average performance for each calendar month since 1950 shows the strongest upward bias in stocks has historically occurred during the November-January time frame.

• Have you recently looked at the World Equity Returns?

Australia focused ETFs

6 dividend all-stars

Oil, OPEC & Energy

• OPEC meets Monday, with Oil at 5 month lows. If it drops towards support near $60m, might the cartel curtail output?

Overlooked: While BP execs have been in lots of hot water about issues at the Alaskan oil pipeline, the company spent $98 million buying Greenlight Energy, a large US wind farm firm.

•  I had no idea the US even had an Office of Fossil Energy or an Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy office; I ususally go to EIA in DOE for government stats and data about energy.

The Macro-Economy

• Markets sold off this week on Labor Wage pressure data from the BLS. Despite my bearish outlook for the rest pf the year, I don’t buy it — Are Labor Costs Really Rising?    

• The Anxious Index    

• The Folly of Forecasting:  You already know my views on this, and now we have wquantitative evidence. Nouriel Roubini points  out 95% of Forecasters Predicted No Recession in 2001 (Too Bad the Recession Had Already Begun). Crossing Wall Street shows just how inaccurate economists GDP forecasts have been.

• A twosome from Carolyn Baum: She notes that Wages Are a Problem — Just Not for Employers; and also observes Yield-Curve Recession Indicator Flashes Yellow   

• The BBC gets melodramtic with The end of the American dream?   

• August had a big uptick in Layoff announcements

Housing/Real Estate

A Closer Look at Housing "Deceleration"; See also the OFHEO report on House Price Appreciation (pdf)

• The good news about the Housing Slowdown is It May Let Fed Stay on Hold; The bad news is the Builders are imploding; What does this say to those who like to buy  cheap P/E cyclical stocks  in front of a slowdown?

•  A survey by the Fed found a Big Surge in ‘Non-Prime’ Mortgages in ’05   

• In Detroit, where many industrial jobs have been lost: Thousands of homes swamp the market.

The Key is a new NYT property/real estate  magazine

• I haven’t seen much evidence of a correlation between the US and Japan’s Housing markets, but I found this Cautionary Housing Tale from Japan interesting nonetheless.   

• Shiller’s Graph on US Home values, 1890-2006 (What the hell happened in 1997?)

Technology, Science, Internet, Fun 

What is Apple’s New Digital Product? The smart money says its a bigger iPod screen/with downloadable movies, or a iPod Phone combo — but I want to see a 60 inch iMac plasma;

55 Ways to Have Fun With Google

• Very interesting concept: Shopthisblog (Here’s what mine looks like)

The new Web geniuses:  How slackers with one dopey idea are getting rich;

• What some people have called the best TV ad ever made.

Robotic Frisbees of Death: They are real, and they are hunting for bad guys.

The Best Computer Upgrade Ever 

Coming soon:  Tivo series 3 HD DVR Dual tuner, programmable from your phone!

• Popular Mechanics (?!) Debunks 9/11 Myths   

Real Estate fraud turns violent (Warning: Graphic Video)  Here’s a simple moral: If you are accused of fraud, its probably not the greatest idea to physically attack the reporter on camera.

Music Film TV Books

• 2 CDs getting lots of spins this week — The Fray: How To Save A Life and Sacred by Los Lonely Boys;

• Interesting new book:  This Is Your Brain on Music: The Science of a Human Obsession

• Steve Colbert on the increasing nichefication of pop culture: Crumbelievable;

Who killed the electric car? and on a completely unrelated note: 2007 Ford Mustang GT500:  Hmmmmm, Shelby;

• Since when does Al Franken have a new movie?

iPod competition heats up or less succinctly: Does the MySpace music deal pose a bigger threat to iTunes to the Record Labels?

•  55 Ways to Have Fun With Google — the free downloadable book!• Why do more people choose to end their lives at the Golden Gate Bridge than anywhere else in the world? (Disturbingly chilling)

On a personal note, I am already sick of the 9/11 "celebrations."  Can’t we have a more dignified way to honor our dead?

Category: Weblogs

12 Trading Rules

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Psychology, Technical Analysis, Trading

9/11 Overdose

Category: Economy, Financial Press, War/Defense

U.S. Economy, post 9/11

Category: Economy, War/Defense

Are Labor Costs Really Rising ?

Category: Economy, Employment, Psychology

A few thoughts on Microcaps

Category: Investing, Psychology, RR&A, Trading

Yellen’s Yelling

Category: Economy, Federal Reserve, Inflation

Cablevision — Aaarrgghh!

Category: Weblogs

What is Apple’s New Digital Product?

Category: Film, Music, Technology, Television

Home Builders

Category: Real Estate