Regular readers of this blog know I don’t believe in the Plunge Protection team.
Exhibit A has always been the Nasdaq’s 78% plunge from March 2000 to October 2002. If the PPT couldn’t stop that runaway train, what can you expect them to accomplish here, other than delaying the obvious and inevitable conclusion to a market drunk on cheap money and an economy driven by ultra low rates?
However, I do not believe the Fed or the White House are going to sit on their hands in an election year as the whole house of cards collapses around them. (this is true, regardless of which party is in the WH).
So let me open this up to the assembled multitudes: What is the likeliest course of intervention?
No answer too outrageous will be mocked. . .
What say ye?
I’ve mentioned the Blu Ray/HD quandry in the past, but it seems the fight is drawing to its conclusion. In both the US and Europe, Blu-ray discs are significantly outselling HD DVDs.
But its this MacRumors chart (below) that pretty much sums up the battle:
Its hard to see how HD has a shot.
Now the question becomes how fast the prices drop on both the Blu Ray players and movies, but for now, I am sticking with an upconvert Sony for the big TV.
UPDATE: January 8, 2008 8:21pm
Why would prices go down?
As we previously discussed, I suspect many consumers have been on the sidelines awaiting the winner of the format war between Blu-Ray and HD.
As that fades away, the total number of purchases of the winner — Blu Ray — will go up significantly.
Thus, economies of scale, mass adaptation, and desires for deep market penetration will drive prices lower.
As to the monopoly issue — I doubt its an issue. 1) These are video playback toys, not an essential product or service; and B) There is still legit competition from ordinary DVD players (fer cryin out loud, you can still buy VCRs for $29).
My apologies for failing to explain the intermediate steps in my thinking . . .
> Last year, I participated in the WSJ forecasts. Given the typical Wall Street cheerleading, I (per usual) was the most bearish person on the list. As chance would have it, our forecasts were eerily accurate. Here are the forecasts from 2007 and the actual year end numbers: 2007 Forecasts DJIA: 13250; S&P 500:…Read More